Here are the results of Israel's war against Hezbollah so far. Hezbollah is bringing home a living murderer, and Israel is bringing home two dead soldiers - over whose capture it sacrificed 160 other soldiers and civilians.
Hezbollah celebrates a symbolic victory, and Israel is in ideological crisis.
Hezbollah has won almost complete political control over Lebanon, and Israel wallows in irrevocable political chaos.
Hezbollah is armed with 40,000 rockets threatening most of Israel's territory, while Israel has no response.
Hezbollah increases its firepower four or five times, and Israel remains feebly silent.
Hezbollah doubles its fighting alignment and sets up numerous outposts north and south of the Litani River, which will force Israel to conquer half of Lebanon in the next confrontation, while Israel remains paralyzed with confusion.
Feeling its power, Hezbollah is demanding the Shaba Farms area as well, while Israel is stammering its way to the next withdrawal.
Two years after an ephemeral militia provoked a regional superpower, the militia is growing stronger than ever, and the regional superpower is in a state of turmoil, degeneration and foggy stupor.
Here are the results of Israel's war against Hamas so far. Hamas is holding an abducted Israeli soldier a few steps away from Israel Defense Forces troops, and demanding that Israel go down on its knees for his release.
Hamas is enforcing on Israel a truce that strengthens it strategically, knowing that Israel's leadership lacks the moral ability to deal with it directly.
Hamas is arming itself with anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles and standard-issue bombs that would kill hundreds in a future confrontation with the IDF. Hamas is building a rocket alignment that will soon threaten Ashdod, Kiryat Gat, vital air-force bases and sensitive strategic facilities.
Hamas' political strength has increased with its military strength. Its proven ability to face Israel and dissolve the siege on Gaza is gradually turning Hamas into a legitimate body, which the Palestinian moderates will have to cooperate with and accept its authority. Two and a half years after a fanatical terror organization provoked the regional super power, the organization is getting stronger while the super power stumbles from tactical defeat to strategic defeat, from the frying pan to the fire.
Here are the results of Israel's war against Iran's nuclear program so far. Iran is advancing toward the bomb step by step, while Israel is being pushed into a corner. Granted, Iran is encountering certain technological problems, accidental or not. Granted, Israel is doing all it can to delay Iran's nuclearization. Granted, the Western powers now understand the full significance of the Iranian threat.
However, Israel has failed to turn the West's understanding into a determination to stop Iran at all costs. Israel failed in its attempt to start an international emergency move to impose immediate, draconian sanctions on Iran. The chance of stopping Iran by diplomatic measures is growing smaller. The chance of a United States military strike on Iran is waning.
Soon the country will have to choose from two bad options: watch Iran go nuclear, or mount an operation. Three years after the election of a wacky Iranian president who talks day and night of destroying Israel, Israel has failed to isolate him - just as it failed against Hassan Nasrallah and Ismail Haniyeh. An uneasy calm that isn't final or unequivocal may be worse than the other two options.
Here are the results of Israel's war for peace so far. The Palestinian home front is making a heroic last-minute effort to produce a document. The Oslo team is back in action. It is trying to obtain two dubious leaders' signatures on an irresponsible paper. If the document is not signed, it will bring disaster to the Palestinian Authority. One way or another, this is a foolhardy move, which endangers the two-state solution rather than advancing it.
However, while Israel's moves on the Palestinian track are still only a potential failure, the moves on the Syrian track have already failed. Israel is giving Bashar Assad, who is continuing to arm Hezbollah, international legitimacy - as it did in the Paris conference this week - without getting anything in return. The necessary move of talking to the Syrians is being conducted in an incredibly bungling and incompetent way. Two years after the Second Lebanon War, the Syrians and their allies have managed to emerge from their straits and maneuver their rival, Israel, into a position of unmistakable weakness.
In two and a half years of Olmert's government, Israel has failed in four different campaigns. None of these failures was necessary. Basically Israel was and remains a very powerful country. However, when a stupid government conducts a foolish policy in every field and respect, the result is a resounding failure. This failure could become a real threat. No, not a threat to our survival, but definitely a strategic one.
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