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Hamas' Ismail Haniyeh said his group will suspend Shalit talks if borders are closed. (AP)
ANALYSIS / Truce is a poker game, and both sides are bluffing
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff
Tags: Gaza Strip, cease-fire 

The tahadiyeh, the partial cease-fire established two and a half weeks ago between the Israel Defense Forces and Hamas, is gradually emerging as a complex, elusive deal, one whose terms may turn out to be unfavorable for Israel.

Under the terms of the agreement, Israel withdrew from its original precondition of "quiet in exchange for quiet," acceding to Hamas' request to open the crossings into the Gaza Strip to supplies. With that, Israel lost one of the main pressure points that could have led to the release of captive IDF soldier Gilad Shalit - the economic blockade.

In the meantime, Hamas has shown itself to be genuinely interested in a lull in the fighting, but at the same time is unable to rein in the smaller factions operating in Gaza. Israel, in search of ways to at least ensure quiet, has turned to an old standby in its campaign for calm and again sealed the crossings.
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Israel hopes that renewed economic pressure will lead the public in Gaza to apply pressure on the Hamas leadership, which in turn will seek to assert its authority over the smaller terror groups.

In the past week, it has become abundantly clear that Hamas refuses to play into Israel's hands. Its spokesman announced that each time Israel closes the crossings in response to rocket fire, it will suspend talks over a prisoner exchange for Shalit.

Hamas made good on this threat Friday, delaying the exit to Egypt of its negotiating delegation. In addition, it announced it would no longer release "signs of life" from the soldier, and that it would not budge from the list of prisoners it presented Israel for a swap.

Shalit has essentially been turned into a hostage of the crisis surrounding the crossings. The blockade, once the most important tool available to secure his release, has become the excuse Hamas is most likely to use to delay it.

Sources in the security establishment say they believe Hamas will blink first, but the current stand-off is starting to look like a poker game in which both sides are bluffing, neither very convincingly.

Another Israeli dilemma is its response to the ongoing rocket fire. A document released last week by the IDF General Staff's planning division recommends pinpoint strikes against rocket launch sites, a tactic at odds with directives issued by Defense Minister Ehud Barak.

The government is apparently occupied with more pressing issues than the situation in the South, such as the row between Kadima and Labor in what may be the lead-up to elections.

The escalation taking place on the southern front should not cause the government to rush to a military option - it has had legitimate reasons until now to refrain from such action in favor of a cease-fire. Nevertheless, the current situation demands a more lucid vision of the path ahead.

Repressing the reality that is taking hold in Gaza will only raise the ante Israel will have to pay later in this high-stakes poker game.

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      1.   what evidence is there that Hamas does not support rockets? 03:32  |  McQueen 06/07/08
      2.   israel is bluffing while exposing its cards 03:47  |  vik 06/07/08
      3.   Haniyeh`s Death or Shalit back 04:38  |  Avi 06/07/08
      4.   Both sides need to show good will to move forward... 04:42  |  Smadar 06/07/08
      5.   Don`t forget the real purpose of cease fire/hostage negotiations 05:15  |  Voice of Reason 06/07/08
      6.   Shalit should be free! UNCONDITIONALLY! If not - HAMAS should... 06:28  |  Vittorio 06/07/08
      7.   THIS IS A FATAH ISRAEL US GAME 07:25  |  Arik Silverman 06/07/08
      8.   Causing civilian suffering has never benefitted Israel 08:01  |  Natallie Durson 06/07/08
      9.   re #1 `Good will` 08:23  |  Colin Wright 06/07/08
      10.   Hamas holding Israel hostage. 08:52  |  sandra chitayat 06/07/08
      11.   Everyone knows Shalit shoud have been free before anything else 08:58  |  S 06/07/08
      12.   Nutalie Doos-sun 08:58  |  cleva treva 06/07/08
      13.   "row between Kadima and Labour" 09:06  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 06/07/08
      14.   Such a bland statement.... 09:07  |  Johnboy 06/07/08
      15.   "will only raise the ante Israel will have to pay later" 09:13  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 06/07/08
      16.   #5, Durson 09:16  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 06/07/08
      17.   Why respond to idiots ? 10:28  |  Raymond 06/07/08
      18.   Liberating the kidnapped soldiers. 10:38  |  Jean Van Daem 06/07/08
      19.   Gaza 360 sq.km and 1.5M people 10:44  |  Nick 06/07/08
      20.   Does Haniyeh have any children? 10:50  |  Nick 06/07/08
      21.   Israel should occupy Gaza before striking Iran 12:45  |  AY 06/07/08
      22.   Rulers and Responsibility 14:13  |  Ronnie Wolman 06/07/08
      23.   how can you deal with the devil? 16:06  |  sarahs child 06/07/08
      24.   #14 Johnboy re: 1701?? 16:45  |  * BEN JABO 06/07/08
      25.   I disagree 17:05  |  Mark Lincoln 06/07/08
      26.   POKER IS A FAIR GAME 17:32  |  indrajaya 06/07/08
      27.   #17 Raynond from the other Apartheid 17:58  |  Labhras 06/07/08
      28.   #21 The war monger from ?????. 18:14  |  Labhras 06/07/08
      29.   Why do Israelis never learn 18:21  |  Labhras 06/07/08
      30.   Israel living in a limbo & it`s great mistake is seeking 21:51  |  Akram Zekaria 06/07/08
      31.   #21 Labrhas in his up-side-down world 22:47  |  AY 06/07/08
      32.   To McQueen and Avi (#1&3) 20:14  |  Otto Rand 22/07/08
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