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Showing Olmert the door
By Yossi Verter
Tags: primaries, Ehud Olmert 

Two days ago, when Avi Dichter was asked to describe the condition of Kadima under Olmert, he said: "We're sailing down the river in a boat. It's quite pleasant. Gradually we start to feel that the current is growing stronger and we hear a noise. By the time we notice that the noise is coming from the waterfall in front of us, it's too late. We can't grab on to the sides."

The press conference Dichter convened on Wednesday was meant to cause an earthquake in Kadima, and to position the interior security minister at the top of a list of unsullied candidates in a party that is not afraid to tell the prime minister to pack his bags. But the planned event turned into a public relations disaster.

While Dichter was criticizing the prime minister, 500 meters away as the crow flies, on Jaffa Road, the bulldozer was on the rampage. When he entered the room, it wasn't yet clear what was happening; soon it began to look like a terror attack, but then he'd already started to speak. Minutes later, when he was handed a note informing him that the terrorist had been killed, he was embroiled in answering questions. Later on, someone remarked, "It was the 'Revenge of the Tractor'" (the name of a popular Israeli rock band).
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Dichter, who is brimming with good intentions and has an impressive record as Shin Bet chief, has been bumbling around politically. Each time he tries to recover, he seems to stumble.

He called on Olmert not to run again, because under his leadership, "Kadima will not be a ruling party." He said what Tzipi Livni, Shaul Mofaz and Meir Sheetrit may think, but haven't dared to utter.

In a conversation after the press conference, Dichter escalated his attack on Olmert: "I'm hearing hints and messages that he is thinking of running, that he wants to amend the rules to make it easier for him to run, but I ask: If he's running, then why are we holding a primary? The point is to replace him. You can't fool everyone all the time."

The report of Olmert's intention to propose a change to the party rules - by which, in the next primary, the party chairman and deputy chairman will be selected in a way that if the prime minister is compelled to resign, the deputy chair will automatically replace him - was revealed for the first time last week in this space. Dichter decided to take a stand.

"I took this step because Kadima is a serious party, and is about more than just personal survival," says Dichter. "It's a leading party in the government, and we have a responsibility to our 65,000 registered members. Are we not capable of saying to ourselves, 'He will not run'?"

Different scenarios

Dichter said he did not coordinate the press conference with others: "I made this move so that Ehud will understand that we must elect a new head for Kadima, to lead us in this Knesset until 2010." Asked if he fears that he'll be fired, or if he has plans to resign, he returns to the boat image: "When one of the passengers is tossed from the boat, it might help the one who is thrown overboard, but the boat is still going to end up going over the waterfall. It's inconceivable to me that Olmert would sacrifice the national interest for the sake of his personal survival."

Why don't you at least let Olmert get through the cross-examination of Morris Talansky in two weeks, he is asked. "I refuse to get involved in the legal track," he answers. "I want to stay on the ethical track. From the ethical point of view, Olmert cannot continue."

The prime minister came to the Kadima faction meeting, said a few words about the prisoner swap with Nasrallah and left. The faction had planned to hold a discussion about the party primary."

Minister without portfolio Tzachi Hanegbi opened the discussion by outlining the agreement with Labor, by which Kadima stipulated that it would hold its primary no later than September 25. "Something unprecedented is happening here," said Minister Jacob Edery. "We're a party that has begun a quiet process of deposing a prime minister ... "

"How can you talk like that?" shouted Minister Ruhama Avraham-Balila. "What if it gets out. People will say that we said ... "

"Let me finish," said Edery. "It is inconceivable that a party should determine internal procedures due to the dictate of a rival party, and it is inconceivable that a political system should decide a prime minister's fate before the legal system does so."

Afterwards they talked about another "unprecedented" scenario - the election of a new party chairman while the prime minister continues to serve."

"Look," said Ramon patiently, "Our regulations stipulate who is the head of the movement, not who is the prime minister. In principle, if the party chair is able to put together an alternate coalition in the present Knesset, he is prime minister. But because the coalition negotiations are supposed to take place in October-November, amid discussions on the 2009 budget, Shas will present reinstatement of the child allowances as a condition, no one will be able to form an alternate coalition, and the Knesset will disband and we'll go to elections."

"If we've learned anything, it's that the Knesset does not wish to disband itself," noted Livni.

"True," replied Ramon. "The Knesset doesn't want that, but forming a new government will be impossible."

"And what happens then?" someone asked.

"Then the party's new chairman is its candidate for the Knesset election, and Olmert continues as head of a transitional government until a new government is formed," explained Ramon, "which should be around March 2009."

As crazy as it sounds, Olmert is indeed likely to be prime minister until early next spring. Even if the attorney general decides, after the holidays this fall, to bring charges against Olmert, he would deserve a pre-indictment hearing, which would eat up another month. And let's say that an indictment is filed in late November and Olmert keeps his word and resigns - even then, the election would not be held before March, so that Olmert would serve as head of a transitional government until March-April.

Only one scenario could speed up this timetable. Talansky is supposed to be back in court on July 17, and confidants of the prime minister say his cross-examination should last some three days. If after that, Olmert announces that he has decided to run for the Kadima leadership, says Labor secretary general Eitan Cabel, "Labor would break the agreement with Kadima, vote in favor of disbanding the Knesset and we'd go to elections in December."

In that case, Olmert will be prime minister only until January 2009.

Barak's soiree

On Saturday night, Ehud and Nili Barak received a vist in their home in the Akirov Towers by President Shimon Peres, the ambassadors of France and Jordan, agriculture minister and Barak confidant Shalom Simhon, and some very affluent citizens - a lawyer, an industrialist and an economist.

Toward the end of dinner, a passionate debate arose between the Jordanian ambassador and the attorney concerning the chances for a peace agreement between Israel and the Palestinians. The attorney, who generally has dovish and moderate views and is thought to be close to the prime minister, was aggressively making the case that Israel has no one to talk to.

Barak and Peres interrupted. Not surprisingly, Barak supported his guest's hawkish stance, though in somewhat milder language. And then it was Peres' turn, and he of all people was just as extreme: "It will be very, very hard to reach an agreement," he said. In his view, the split between Hamas and Fatah prevents any such possibility, as Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas lacks political legitimacy and does not have the power to implement security agreements. Any accord reached by Israel and the Palestinian Authority will crumble the next day because of the weakness of the PA, declared the prophet of the "new Middle East." This is the reason, he added, that all of his efforts today are currently directed at the economic field, at regional projects and cooperation with Jordan.

When Peres was elected, people thought he would try to outflank Olmert on the left, that he would rush to make peace with the whole world. And yet, here we have Olmert making peace overtures to the Palestinians and the Syrians, and Peres is playing the role of the skeptic. On negotiations with Syria, he said: "It would be inconceivable to give the Golan to Iran." The prospect of Shai Agassi's electric cars excites him much more.
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