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How many missiles will be fired from Iran, Syria, Lebanon in the next war?
By Yossi Melman
Tags: Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Israel

How many missiles will be fired from Iran, Syria and Lebanon against Israel in the next war? This question, as well as the various future war scenarios, was the subject of an enlightening lecture early in the week by the commander of the Israel Air Force from 1996 to 2000, Major General (res.) Eitan Ben Eliahu.

His lecture surveyed the changes in Israel's national security doctrine amid the changing nature of wars, technology and the threats posed by the country's enemies. The lecture was initiated by an organization established after the Second Lebanon War, when the Israeli home front was hit by thousands of Hezbollah rockets. The Israel Missile Defense Association (www.imda.org.il) was founded by Avi Schnurr, a senior engineer who worked for many years in the United States military industries, immigrated to Israel and served as "the voice of missile defense in Israel."

A number of senior former defense officials - experts on missiles and advanced weapons systems - are active in the association, such as Uzi Eilam, the former director general of the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission; David Ivry, the former commander of the Israel Air Force and a former director general of the Defense Ministry; and Uzi Rubin, who was involved in the development of the Arrow missile.
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Their presence gives the association prestige and credibility, but because its members are linked to the defense establishment and some are even dependent on it financially, their freedom to express their views is limited, as is their willingness to criticize the system.

Eitan Ben Eliahu began his speech by defining the national security doctrine and the changes it has undergone. Since it was formulated in the early 1950s, the concept on exercising military force has advocated the following:

* An initiated war (a preventive strike). But if that is impossible then at least:

* A preemptive strike to disrupt the enemy's war preparations. But if war does break out, the Israel Defense Forces must conduct: b A holding operation after which it will go over to: Aerial superiority.

* A breakthrough in order to achieve:

* Final lines and a defeat of the enemy.

This doctrine outlined a scenario in which Israel would find itself at war on two or three familiar fronts (Egypt, Syria and Jordan). For that purpose, up until the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the military force was built up with a budget of $30 billion to $35 billion for buying planes, armored vehicles and a few ships, emphasizing that these weapons systems would be varied and allow for flexibility.

Two major lessons

According to the security doctrine, the process of defeating the enemy was based on weapons systems that would enable surprise, movement and initiative on the ground. In the air it was based on weapons that would make it possible to attack and destroy airfields and win aerial battles, and on the development of precise weaponry that would destroy ground-to-air missiles.

The War of Attrition (1968-1970) and the Yom Kippur War disrupted these basic assumptions. The Arabs drew two major lessons from their failure in the Six-Day War. They concealed their planes in underground hangars and purchased anti-aircraft missiles. As a result, the IAF suffered a severe blow (about 100 of its planes were downed or damaged - nearly 1.5 percent of its overall sorties), and at the time there was talk of "the missile that bends the wing of the plane." The IAF thus decided to operate against batteries of ground-to-air missiles and to induce enemy planes to leave their hiding places and take off, and then to bring them down.

According to the data presented by Ben Eliahu, during the War of Attrition, 104 enemy planes were downed. In the Yom Kippur War, 277 were downed, and in the first Lebanon war the IAF brought down 99 (Syrian) planes and hit 17 Syrian missile batteries, using electro-optical air-to-ground missiles.

The new needs have led to a 15 to 20 percent increase in the defense budget to between $35 billion and $40 billion.

But from the end of the 1980s, and particularly after the 1991 Gulf War, during which Iraq launched 40 Scud missiles, Israel found itself facing new and additional threats:

* strikes against the home front

* a short warning time (for beginning a war and adding a front)

* a prolonging- of the fighting

* non-conventional weapons (chemical and nuclear)

Some of these threats became even more acute during the Second Lebanon War and in the Gaza Strip.

As a result, Israel was forced to increase the security budget sharply, to $50 billion, and to update its national defense doctrine to prepare for scenarios of wars against Iran, Syria, Lebanon (and additional countries?) and terror with a strategic dimension.

To assess the intensity of these scenarios, Ben Eliahu presented figures from the Second Lebanon War. Hezbollah's missile inventory included about 14,000 missiles. About 4,200 missiles were launched, including about 200 medium-range missiles. The IAF carried out 11,870 sorties during the war's 34 days (an average of 340 sorties a day).

During these sorties the IAF destroyed 93 missile launchers - 50 of them in sorties based on precise intelligence on the first day of the war. The IAF also destroyed 33 "pipes" (simple launchers) using the "hunting method" (planes remained in the air to search for and find the launchers).

In his estimation, Israel must prepare for the next war according to the following script:

* One to three fronts

* Crush the enemy on one front

* Containing the Palestinian front

* Long-range punishment or response (Iran)

What should Israel's aim be in the next war?

On the basis of the precedent of the Gulf War, Ben Eliahu estimates that in the next war, Syria and Iran might launch between 250 and 300 long-range missiles at Israel (Shihab and Scud missiles) and another 5,000 short-range missiles (mainly from Lebanon).

To intercept a single long-range missile, one needs an average of two intercepting missiles and between 500 and 700 missiles in all.

In addition, Israel must keep another 200 intercepting missiles in reserve. To destroy the short-range missiles, Israel will need mainly ground forces.

Israel must prepare for a war that will last up to 20 days. Vis-a-vis Syria it must attain aerial superiority and embark on a ground attack for a strategic purpose, attack the missile and launcher sites and attack strategic targets.

Zooming in on an aerial attack

Vis-a-vis Lebanon, Israel has aerial superiority and will therefore have to focus only on an aerial attack against medium-range missiles and carry out a ground attack against short-range missiles.

On the Gaza front, the threat of Qassam rockets and mortar shells is, according to this analysis, "limited, exhausting and indirect," and the response must consist mainly of providing shelters for the civilians, developing more efficient warning and alarm systems - which will be able to identify launched missiles - and launching a ground offensive against the Palestinian guerrillas.

And above all Israel must grant high priority to development methods for confronting the chemical and nuclear threat.
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  1.   Counterforce is the Only Rational Strategy 12:41  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 03/07/08
  2.   stop the threat 12:59  |  jem 03/07/08
  3.   None from Syria and Lebanon 13:02  |  zarebin 03/07/08
  4.   Israel will fire very few missiles in the next war 13:11  |  Murray the Mongoose 03/07/08
  5.   too many words 13:11  |  Uri 03/07/08
  6.   Same old thinking! VIolence never the answer! 13:17  |  harv 03/07/08
  7.   TO # 1 Ovadiah ben Avraham 13:46  |  THE TEACHER/INSTRUCT 03/07/08
  8.   There is only one winning strategy for Israel 14:03  |  Natallie Durson 03/07/08
  9.   Defending Israel against Missiles 14:05  |  Brod 03/07/08
  10.   Future War 14:25  |  Scott G 03/07/08
  11.   what israel wants 14:26  |  Andrea 03/07/08
  12.   Less missiles than IDL launched 14:27  |  Michel 03/07/08
  13.   If you are preparing to deal with a nuclear threat?? 14:53  |  Mai Ksens 03/07/08
  14.   #1 Ovadiah ben Avraham 14:54  |  Chris Linthwaite 03/07/08
  15.   To Natallie 15:02  |  Jeff 03/07/08
  16.   So we will be protecting the Palestinians in the next war? 15:14  |  Shimon 03/07/08
  17.   Natalie Durson, simple question... without agression 15:29  |  David 03/07/08
  18.   In order for Israel to survive ... 15:49  |  sinalco 03/07/08
  19.   If I said it once or twice, I will say it again 15:49  |  Dror 03/07/08
  20.   #15 Jeff of Givatayim 15:53  |  Chris Linthwaite 03/07/08
  21.   Chris Lightweight 15:59  |  Dror 03/07/08
  22.   you zionests must know that you will be hired soon 16:03  |  zeinab 03/07/08
  23.   Shimon, That`ll be different wont it? Not killing Palestinians! 16:03  |  Just D Facts 03/07/08
  24.   outsider 16:18  |  Di, the doubter 03/07/08
  25.   where is the freedom of thoughts 16:22  |  zienab 03/07/08
  26.   Destroy Iran`s Oil refining capacity 16:24  |  Mikhail 03/07/08
  27.   Its in the best interest of both for the US to bomb Iran not Isra 16:25  |  zionist forever 03/07/08
  28.   Israeli response to missle attack 16:29  |  Victor 03/07/08
  29.   It is getting harder 16:30  |  Mike 03/07/08
  30.   Iran is present at our borders. 16:34  |  Jean Van Daem 03/07/08
  31.   David - May I have a third choice please? 16:43  |  Natallie Durson 03/07/08
  32.   #21 Israel belongs to the Jews 16:51  |  Mickey 03/07/08
  33.   IRAN,HAMAS: AS MANY AS THEY CAN FIRE, LEBANON:4000-5000, SYRIA:0 16:55  |  David P 03/07/08
  34.   #31 Who said Natalie Durson wasn`t Scarlet O`Hara? 17:09  |  H 03/07/08
  35.   Nathallie is your knowledge/Israel from UNbiased sources? 17:15  |  Arthur 03/07/08
  36.   @Natallie Durson`s choice 17:26  |  Ralph 03/07/08
  37.   Naatalie #15, you are clumsy 17:31  |  charro 03/07/08
  38.   29 17:36  |  zionist forver 03/07/08
  39.   Dror 17:42  |  Danite 03/07/08
  40.   #3 Hatred of Israel will overcome reluctance to attack 17:44  |  DesMnsDave 03/07/08
  41.   #26 The best suggestion I`ve heard yet 17:48  |  DesMnsDave 03/07/08
  42.   Once Israel gets its new planes Arab Radar will be useless 18:10  |  Dish It Out 03/07/08
  43.   zeinab 22 18:22  |  ChanahS 03/07/08
  44.   Natalie Dursan you`ve profound ability to make wrong arguement 18:23  |  David P 03/07/08
  45.   zeinab 25 18:24  |  ChanahS 03/07/08
  46.   for andrea italia 11 18:32  |  achmed 03/07/08
  47.   Defense against this missile threat is simple and available 18:50  |  Dr. L. Brnd 03/07/08
  48.   #39 dish it out! Israel vs Iran. 19:03  |  Persian Hero 03/07/08
  49.   Dont u all know how to live in peace??? 19:11  |  jack 03/07/08
  50.   secret operatives 19:28  |  Robin 03/07/08
  51.   What about emergency arms airlifts from Russia/China? 19:30  |  Pablo B 03/07/08
  52.   47# Dr Brnd, send it to Ashkenazi & Barak 19:39  |  Nora 03/07/08
  53.   #21 Dror of Haifa 19:54  |  Chris Linthwaite 03/07/08
  54.   How Many Missiles - Lots 19:55  |  L 03/07/08
  55.   Israel can handle a three front war like this 20:03  |  Jeremy 03/07/08
  56.   #42 Dish it out 20:05  |  Chris Linthwaite 03/07/08
  57.   understanding the game 20:08  |  hersh 03/07/08
  58.   pablo 20:22  |  hersh 03/07/08
  59.   Israel must use nukes in this war 20:30  |  JP 03/07/08
  60.   Eventually.. 20:39  |  Mike 03/07/08
  61.   zeinab 20:43  |  hersh 03/07/08
  62.   Israeli strategy 20:47  |  Steve Gure 03/07/08
  63.   what kind of country 21:04  |  native new yorker 03/07/08
  64.   mike 60 21:11  |  hersh 03/07/08
  65.   32 21:23  |  adrien 03/07/08
  66.   less than half as many as they will get back 21:26  |  w 03/07/08
  67.   mike 29\60 21:33  |  hersh 03/07/08
  68.   To #14 Linthwraith: 320,000 Graves LOL 21:39  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 03/07/08