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Last update - 01:35 03/07/2008 Facing an Iranian winter By Ari Shavit Tags: iran, israel  Here is the wild scenario: In November, after Senator Barack Obama becomes the president-elect of the United States, outgoing President George W. Bush will launch a strike at Iran. The strike might be a naval siege, a military show of muscle or a comprehensive aerial assault on the Iranian nuclear program. In reasonable times, reasonable people would dismiss this wild scenario out of hand. The American public is not in favor of opening a second front in the Middle East. The political establishment, the military establishment and the intelligence establishment are all worried. A combative move, even a semi-combative one, by a president who is about to leave office is an act without precedent and without legitimacy. It will be perceived as the final, delusional trumpet blast of a raving religious administration. But the times are not reasonable ones, and the men involved are not reasonable men. The logic that guides Bush and Dick Cheney is one that Western public opinion and its shapers cannot always understand. That logic might lead the president and his second-in-command to the conclusion that if they do not act, neither will Obama. If Obama does not act, Iran will become a nuclear power. And if Iran goes nuclear, evil will win. Advertisement Therefore, the dialogue that the present administration has with history might cause it to do what only few people believe it really will do. There is a genuine possibility that Bush will end his miserable presidency not with a whimper, but with a bang. The scenario is a wild one. If John McCain is elected, it will be unnecessary. Obama has committed himself to preventing such a scenario, and if he is elected, the chances of its realization will lessen. The powers-that-be in Washington D.C. may also block the thwarting of Iran's nuclear power. Bush and Cheney may ultimately get cold feet, give it up and dissolve into oblivion. This wild scenario, therefore, is low-probability. But low probability is not zero probability. When it comes to fateful issues, even unlikely possibilities need to be addressed. In the long run, the wild scenario is good for Israel, as it is good for the United States. A nuclear Iran will endanger Israel's existence, the stability of the Middle East and the welfare of the West. An Iran stripped of nuclear ability will allow the Middle East to become more moderate; it will enable the West to uphold its values and perpetuate its way of life for a long time to come. In the short term, however, the wild scenario is multi-risk. There might be an intelligence failure or a military one. In any case, the Iran of the ayatollahs is a sophisticated and strong religious power. If it is backed into a corner, Iran, too, will prefer to go out with a bang and not a whimper. No one today knows for sure what the nature and impact of such a bang would be. A serious state must regard seriously any scenario liable to shape its future, for better or worse. When so much is at stake, even low-probability scenarios must be given solemn consideration. It is far from certain and far from likely that the coming winter will be an Iranian winter. But Israel must treat this summer as though the possibility of an Iranian winter were not a distant one. On the political level, the implications are clear - a swift decision. Israel cannot risk the chance of having a leader deprived of his moral authority be in charge at a moment of supreme national trial. Nor can Israel take the chance of having such a trial catch it in the midst of an election campaign. The decision, therefore, must be sharp and clear: elections now, or an alternative government now. We must ensure that before November, Israel will have a new and responsible leadership that enjoys the public's trust. A new leadership, however, is not sufficient. Israel also needs a new agenda. An agenda of preparation and fortification, of reconciliation and unity. In order to face the unlikely, wild scenario, Israel needs to mend itself. But even to face less wild, more likely, scenarios, Israel needs to mend itself. The road to a better future is lined with difficult trials; the road to peace may prove to be bloody. The concluding tone of the Olmert era must therefore be that of a new beginning. After two years of spin, it is time for action. After two years of bile, it is time to extinguish hatreds and bandage wounds. Israel is not as hollow and degenerate as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad believes. But to face Ahmadinejad, Israel must come to its senses. Bookmark to del.icio.us   A hero or a pharaoh? An Iranian film praising Sadat's assassin has touched off a row between Egypt and Iran. Primary colors Barack Obama looks to reassure Jews of his commitment to Israeli security.   1.   ONLY FOR U.S BECAUSE........ 08:55  |  DAVID 03/07/08   2.   Let Israel fight Israels battles and leave us out (for a change) 08:59  |  Natallie Durson 03/07/08   3.   Useless verbiage 09:03  |  Michael N 03/07/08   4.   I Don`t Know Who Our Leaders Are 09:24  |  Yosemite 03/07/08   5.   TO PROVE IT, LETS DO IT 09:25  |  indrajaya 03/07/08   6.   Either Way Israel Is Finished 09:26  |  Rov 03/07/08   7.   Either Way Israel Is Finished 2 09:33  |  Rov 03/07/08   8.   Thanks but no thanks 09:34  |  Rich 03/07/08   9.   Why wait, and waste time? 09:41  |  Harvey (Chaim) 03/07/08   10.   Never trust the analysis of someone who forgets about entire wars 09:49  |  Pablo B 03/07/08   11.   ONLY FOR U.S BECAUSE.....imp...... 10:12  |  DAVID 03/07/08   12.   Wow! This really does spin off into hilarity, don`t it... 10:46  |  Johnboy 03/07/08   13.   Bickering Bias! 10:48  |  Vinegar Hill 03/07/08   14.   Iranian threat 10:54  |  Gregor 03/07/08   15.   A fatal flaw in this man`s argument 11:04  |  Clickfool 03/07/08   16.   #5 Indrajaya 11:04  |  Cornelia 03/07/08   17.   The author is nuts. 11:06  |  Michael 03/07/08   18.   Attack on Iran? 11:16  |  US CITIZEN 03/07/08   19.   how realistic is the threat? 11:42  |  rebecka 03/07/08   20.   #2 Natallie Durson 11:47  |  Question Mark 03/07/08   21.   # 18, US CITIZEN 11:49  |  indrajaya 03/07/08   22.   # 14, GREGOR 11:57  |  indrajaya 03/07/08   23.   Get a Grip!!! 12:13  |  Guy From NYC 03/07/08   24.   A strike on Iran 12:26  |  Dani 03/07/08   25.   The price that Israel would pay... 12:42  |  Esther 03/07/08   26.   Dear Ari 13:09  |  albert paul ortiz 03/07/08   27.   If only we had GW for prez back in the 30`s ^_^ 13:38  |  Denise Thompson 03/07/08   28.   strike on Israel 13:39  |  human being 03/07/08   29.   JOHNBOY of course it does,you live in Australia 13:54  |  PETER SM 03/07/08   30.   Pure fantasy..... 13:57  |  William 03/07/08   31.   DURSON Jews Do fight their own battles.US troops 13:59  |  PETER SM 03/07/08   32.   #15 Clickfool`s facile argument 14:00  |  MarkC 03/07/08   33.   # 26 DT 14:08  |  Vinegar Hill 03/07/08   34.   Guy From NYC (#23) Well how Nice 14:10  |  Gil 03/07/08   35.   Guy From NYC (#23) Well how Nice 14:11  |  Gil 03/07/08   36.   Denise what`s with the ^_^? 14:18  |  Michael 03/07/08   37.   "HUMAN being"?? When your friends stop threatening Israel 14:19  |  PETER SM 03/07/08   38.   shavit.... youre nuts 14:22  |  ravi 03/07/08   39.   `How many Neville Chamberlains will it take...` 14:22  |  Ronnie Wolman 03/07/08   40.   You live in Cloud Cuckoo Land, Mark C # 32 14:36  |  Clickfool 03/07/08   41.   muslims always want to be recognized as the victim of the dispute 14:58  |  Denise Thompson 03/07/08   42.   The day after 14:59  |  Giora zeevy 03/07/08   43.   Attack Iran bacause 15:04  |  Frog 03/07/08   44.   Guy From NYC (#23) Well how Nice 15:14  |  Gil 03/07/08   45.   Guy From NYC (#23) Well how Nice 15:14  |  Gil 03/07/08   46.   #23 Guy from New York 15:15  |  John Allen 03/07/08   47.   Shavit Convinces Iran to go Nuclear 15:20  |  Hank N Tennessee 03/07/08   48.   #25 Esther 15:21  |  John Allen 03/07/08   49.   Hit Israel or Iran, hit none! 15:30  |  Cohen 03/07/08   50.   CLICKFOOL (#15) What does 200 Nukes got to do with it 16:00  |  Gil 03/07/08   51.   Clickfool on Iranian long range missiles 16:12  |  Michael 03/07/08   52.   Iranian Winter 16:36  |  ernie 03/07/08   53.   CLICKFOOL (#40) So 16:37  |  Gil 03/07/08   54.   CLICKFOOL (#40) So 16:38  |  Gil 03/07/08   55.   iran 17:35  |  azad 03/07/08   56.   Ahmadinejad, a loudmouth #36 17:38  |  Seymour 03/07/08   57.   Question Mark re #20 18:07  |  Exclamation Mark 03/07/08   58.   Strike on Ari Shavit would be less bad for Israel, US and us 18:11  |  John 03/07/08   59.   Bush-Cheney attack on Iran 18:13  |  RELombardi 03/07/08   60.   For Michael # 51 18:39  |  Clickfool 03/07/08   61.   For Gil #53 18:46  |  Clickfool 03/07/08   62.   The Isreali Jews deeply disappoint me 18:53  |  Edith 03/07/08   63.   RELombardi 19:00  |  Ramius 03/07/08   64.   I don`t believe any more that the ... 19:01  |  Edith 03/07/08   65.   #56 Exclamation 19:05  |  Question Mark 03/07/08   66.   Michael #36 "what`s with the ^_^?" 19:13  |  examiner 03/07/08   67.   Exclamation Continued 19:15  |  Question Mark 03/07/08   68.   #2, Durson, living in fantasy land 19:15  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 03/07/08   69.   Michael #36 "what`s with the ^_^?" 19:15  |  examiner 03/07/08   70.   #27 Denise Thompson Why you want Iranians `bought to their knees` 19:19  |  zebeddy 03/07/08   71.   Clickfool re Gil 19:23  |  Ramius 03/07/08   72.   Facing an Iranian winter 19:26  |  stars and stripes 03/07/08   73.   Puppetting USA into another I-raeli Proxy war 19:31  |  True American 03/07/08   74.   Cipora 19:34  |  Ramius 03/07/08   75.   True American 19:46  |  Ramius 03/07/08   76.   #74, Ramius 19:46  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 03/07/08   77.   The U.S. & Israel are encouraing a nuclear Iran 19:48  |  Tom Clark 03/07/08   78.   #50 Gil doesn`t know Iran doesn`t need Bushehr to build nukes 19:58  |  Pablo B 03/07/08   79.   `Strike on Iran is good in long run` 20:05  |  Colin Wright 03/07/08   80.   Cipora 20:09  |  Ramius 03/07/08   81.   #80, Ramius 20:33  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 03/07/08   82.   CLICKFOOL (#61) You may have convinced me 20:34  |  Gil 03/07/08   83.   CLICKFOOL (#61) You may have convinced me 20:35  |  Gil 03/07/08   84.   Bush will sign USA & Israeli Death warrants by attack on Iran 21:03  |  Yossi Cronenberg 03/07/08   85.   For Gil # 82 21:17  |  Clickfool 03/07/08   86.   PABLO B (#78) instead of running to your friends to tell 21:18  |  Gil 03/07/08   87.   PABLO B (#78) instead of running to your friends to tell them Gil 21:22  |  Gil 03/07/08   88.   Esther #25...Iran, not Iraq should have been attacked in 2002 21:39  |  Anthony Fallon 03/07/08   89.   I strongly suggest that Israel stay out of it 21:57  |  nussan 03/07/08   90.   operation "444" 22:00  |  "The Texas Hard Hat" 03/07/08   91.   PABLO B (#78) instead of running to your friends to tell them Gil 22:07  |  Gil 03/07/08   92.   qefeqefqewf 22:11  |  eyal 03/07/08   93.   addvcdgng 22:30  |  eyal 03/07/08   94.   what`s good for the jews is bad for america? 23:58  |  dana 03/07/08   95.   Bush And All Will Not Act Against Iran 00:03  |  Gary 04/07/08   96.   Pablo B - dead on 00:06  |  Mark Lincoln 04/07/08   97.   Enough Weather Watching! Israel Must Use Neutron Bomb Already! 00:12  |  Ethan 04/07/08   98.   WILL THE GOY DO ISRAEL`S DIRTY WORK? 00:18  |  CHOSEN WORLD 04/07/08   99.   DANA (#90) Here look what the Arab talkback thinks 00:21  |  Gil 04/07/08   100.   Clickfool: don`t you have a life? 00:22  |  Yossu 04/07/08   101.   The Daily Scheme 00:41  |  Mark of Lewiston 04/07/08   102.   It is not necessary, other forces exist 02:14  |  Mark Lincoln 04/07/08   103.   Now let us sing the anthem! 02:19  |  Mark Lincoln 04/07/08   104.   Gas: $10/gallon 02:35  |  John 04/07/08   105.   Business men already worried about Israelils 02:37  |  JOhn 04/07/08   106.   To Gregor 02:41  |  JOhn 04/07/08   107.   LA Times!!! No proxy war with Iran 02:42  |  Guy From NYC 04/07/08   108.   Shahab is accurate enough 03:00  |  spyguy 04/07/08   109.   Oil at new record - US$146/bbl 03:10  |  spyguy 04/07/08   110.   GUY from NY.has oil leases in Iraq without bids 03:18  |  PETER SM 04/07/08   111.   #29 Whole lotta nonsense in that post, PETER SM 03:26  |  Johnboy 04/07/08   112.   CHOSEN WORLD its the" Infidels" who fight for the Believers 04:11  |  PETER SM 04/07/08   113.   JOHNBOY considering you did not adress any of my points 04:14  |  PETER SM 04/07/08   114.   Nuclear threat 04:58  |  cyberray 04/07/08   115.   how about for iranian women and children? 05:01  |  billy jack 04/07/08   116.   #115 billy jack.........go back to... 05:52  |  Pastor Joseph 04/07/08   117.   #113 Marvelous logic, PETER SM 06:02  |  Johnboy 04/07/08   118.   Typical war mongering mindset .... 06:39  |  dutch 04/07/08   119.   This author didn`t do his homework. 06:41  |  bbl 04/07/08   120.   #8, Rich, well said... 07:10  |  Silvienne 04/07/08   121.   #2, Natalie...let Israel leave us out of it! 07:15  |  Silvienne 04/07/08   122.   #9, Chaim, and don`t try dragging England into it... 07:18  |  Silvienne 04/07/08   123.   #18, US Citizen... 07:23  |  Silvienne 04/07/08   124.   #31, PeterSM.... 07:27  |  Silvienne 04/07/08   125.   #34, Gil... 07:31  |  Silvienne 04/07/08   126.   #94, dana... 07:36  |  Silvienne 04/07/08   127.   an imagination AMOK! this article needs to be labeled... 07:37  |  eric 04/07/08   128.   #99, Gil, how childish of you! 07:37  |  Silvienne 04/07/08   129.   #116, "pastor" Joseph to billy jack... 07:41  |  Silvienne 04/07/08   130.   #118, Dutch... 07:42  |  Silvienne 04/07/08   131.   Iran is hollow not Israel 08:16  |  ScotGuy 04/07/08   132.   re: Indrajaya 08:22  |  JTA 04/07/08   133.   #5 INDRAJAYA 08:27  |  Asian Observer 04/07/08   134.   119 bbl - Facts are Inconvienient 08:33  |  Mark of Lewiston 04/07/08   135.   If Bush attacks Iran... 08:59  |  Advocate4Liberty 04/07/08   136.   #48 John YAmINotInIsrael Allen 09:09  |  Advocate4Liberty 04/07/08   137.   Hey, ScotGuy, #120 09:13  |  Advocate4Liberty 04/07/08   138.   Oh dear, Yossu # 100 09:16  |  Clickfool 04/07/08   139.   For Scotguy # 120 09:21  |  Clickfool 04/07/08   140.   Silvienne (#125) Yes Right just 14:27  |  Gil 04/07/08   141.   Silvienne (#128) talking about childish 15:21  |  Gil 04/07/08   142.   Facing an Iranian winter 16:13  |  steve 04/07/08   143.   Facing an Iranian winter 16:16  |  steve 04/07/08   144.   Facing an Iranian winter 16:21  |  steve 04/07/08   145.   #129 Silvienne...I`m not a... 19:35  |  Pastor Joseph 04/07/08   146.   Serpents of Zionism 20:09  |  Michael 04/07/08   147.   Gil #99 can you translate? 20:21  |  dana 04/07/08   148.   DANA (#147) Read my post to 21:25  |  Gil 04/07/08   149.   Shoklender 22:41  |  Sergio 04/07/08   150.   nuclear iran is a good thing 23:10  |  charlie mingus 04/07/08   151.   Embrace Peace 00:20  |  paul desmond 05/07/08   152.   SCREW PEACE! 01:54  |  Shmuel 05/07/08   153.   dana 02:24  |  American in NY 05/07/08   154.   Nuke or not Nuke 05:53  |  YES4Nuke 05/07/08   155.   Who destabilized Middle Easet?! 00:08  |  Persian Hero 06/07/08   156.   Iranian Scientist 00:28  |  Persian Hero 06/07/08   157.   Opening a second (sic) front? 07:49  |  Alex 06/07/08   158.   They know how we think & their plan takes advantage of it 20:35  |  Jimmy 06/07/08   159.   Reconciliation and Unity 01:59  |  The Other Alan 08/07/08   160.   Jimmy from NYC 02:53  |  David Allen 15/07/08   161.   I`ll Believe it when I see it 00:30  |  Phillip 24/07/08

Read & React Sen. Joe Lieberman praises pastor who said Holocaust was God's work Responses: 78 Obama tells Haaretz: Two states for two peoples Responses: 70 Ashkenazi in U.S.: All options are on the table regarding Iran Responses: 36 Editorial: We need a U.S. leader unfettered by the Israel lobby Responses: 52 Israel Harel: Shalit must be made a burden for Hamas, rather than an asset Responses: 19 More Headlines 14:37 Palestinians: Settlers rampage through West Bank village 14:11 Barack Obama tells Haaretz: Two states for two peoples 09:31 Ashkenazi in U.S.: All options are on the table regarding Iran 14:53 Terror victims' relatives file NIS 450m suit against PA, Barghouti 13:36 MKs okay new West Bank homes, despite vow to freeze settlements 14:41 Study: Tel Aviv more expensive to live in than New York 15:36 Jewish World/Unwilling flag wavers? 16:05 Egypt shuts Iranian TV office in Cairo amid spat over Sadat film 14:51 Haredis likely behind vandalism of Jerusalem ads featuring actress 09:27 ADL condemns anti-Semitic cartoons of Obama, McCain 13:34 VIDEO / Musician Idan Raichel woos Arabs in Al-Jazeera interview 13:33 Pop singer Aviv Gefen pens new ballad calling to free Shalit 07:18 Shin Bet head Diskin: Gaza lull is lifeline to Hamas 06:53 After 40 years, Israel braces for return of the bedbug Previous Editions Select Day 23 jul 22 jul 21 jul 20 jul 18 jul 17 jul 16 jul 15 jul 14 jul 13 jul 11 jul 10 jul

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