Subscribe to Print Edition | Mon., July 07, 2008 Tamuz 4, 5768 | | Israel Time: 04:11 (EST+7)
Haaretz israel news English
web haaretz.com
  Back to Homepage
Rosner's Domain
Diplomacy
Defense
Jewish World Opinion National
Print Edition
Car Rental Books Peres Conference Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File
Last update - 10:50 02/07/2008
Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire
By Zvi Bar'el, Haaretz Correspondent

increased ballistic capabilities. Shihab 3 and Shihab 4 missiles were perceived until recently as Iran's clearest strategic menace. A few years ago, General Ahmed Wahid, head of Iran's aircraft industries, said Iran did not view the United States as the target of his country's missiles, but rather Israel.
Advertisement
In contrast with the more distant nuclear threat, Iran has proven ballistic capabilities to hit strategic and civilian targets in Israel, causing huge casualties and enormous damage. Since the nuclear issue burst into military-diplomatic discourse, it is as if the ballistic
issue has been forgotten. Meanwhile, the single-minded perception that only the West and Israel can attack Iran and that Iran cannot launch a preemptive strike or a powerful response has settled in, at least in public discussions.

If the threat to attack Iran is meant to motivate the Iranian people to pressure their leadership, this goal is still far from attained. Ahmadinejad has a strong opposition in parliament and in some sectors of the public, but at the same time widespread consensus exists that the development of nuclear technology is a worthwhile national task. Thus while there is domestic criticism of failing economic policies, and next year's presidential election campaign has already begun, none of the potential candidates speak of halting nuclear development.

It is believed in Iran that continued threats, not to mention a direct attack, might only strengthen Ahmadinejad as the man who is standing strong against the West and Israel, and increase the feeling that nuclear armament is necessary.

The commander of the Revolutionary Guards Mohammed Ali Jafari warned this week that Iran would respond to an attack by closing the strait of Hormuz, preventing the passage of oil from the Gulf states, which would spike world oil prices.

Israel, which had to extricate itself from accusations that it dragged the U.S. into war in Iraq, will find it difficult to withstand pressure that it, and not Iran, is responsible for another rise in oil prices, perhaps the most dramatic to date, and the subsequent damage to global economy. The hike in oil prices following Mofaz's statements may be proof of this scenario.

Iran's nuclear threat has created an interesting anti-Iranian coalition that includes Arab countries along with the U.S. and Israel. For the first time, Arab statesmen are saying that the Iranian nuclear threat against Arab countries is more concrete than the Israeli threat on them. However, this coalition will have difficulty tolerating an Israeli attack on Iran, especially if such an attack also brings about an Iranian attack on nearby Arab countries.

Related articles:
  • State Dept. denies report Israel likely to attack Iran this year
  • Iran military chief says Israel can't stop nuclear program
  • Is an attack on Iran a big risk?
  • Sources: Iran may attack Israeli targets abroad over Syria talks
    • Bookmark to del.icio.us  
     
    Killing spree
    Police conclude Jerusalem bulldozer killer acted alone.
    The Bar exam
    Attention celebrities: Israeli start-up company can save you from paparazzi
      1.   Dangling sword 01:33  |  jjvanka 02/07/08
      2.   In every cloud there is a silver lining 01:39  |  Jazmine 02/07/08
      3.   Striking First..... 01:44  |  Michael Matters 02/07/08
      4.   Haaretz, what cheap propaghanda is this? 01:48  |  Mark B. 02/07/08
      5.   Zvi Barel thinks he could sit it out on the fence 02:13  |  Absolute Sweden 02/07/08
      6.   If Iran atack first 02:36  |  Peter 02/07/08
      7.   No right to a nuclear monopoly 02:39  |  gearoid 02/07/08
      8.   Desperate 03:05  |  Arfan 02/07/08
      9.   It is 50/50 03:31  |  zarebin 02/07/08
      10.   FEAR!! 03:38  |  The Fear Monger 02/07/08
      11.   Not only is the nuclear issue a matter of national pride,but 03:50  |  lakshmi 02/07/08
      12.   Gearoid (#7) 04:02  |  jjvanka 02/07/08
      13.   Peter #6 04:29  |  Thomas Rudolph 02/07/08
      14.   To Mr. Belfast 04:41  |  Commonsense 02/07/08
      15.   A strike on Iran will be disastrous 04:47  |  Ziggy 02/07/08
      16.   Israel has no choice but to destroy Iran`s nuclear effort. 05:01  |  Albert Einstein 02/07/08
      17.   who will PROFIT first? 05:12  |  ljf-canada 02/07/08
      18.   Israel`s act of war? 05:12  |  Jeff 02/07/08
      19.   #7 Belfast 05:20  |  Jeff 02/07/08
      20.   ATTACK ON IRAN WILL GRAVELY INJURE ISRAEL 05:22  |  Arik Silverman 02/07/08
      21.   To #16 Oil prices 05:52  |  Frank 02/07/08
      22.   #14 You can not be serious, Jeff 05:57  |  Johnboy 02/07/08
      23.   This so silly 06:06  |  Robert 02/07/08
      24.   Reply to Absolute Sweden (#5) - Spot On 06:12  |  Tod Zuckerman 02/07/08
      25.   If Iran would strike first, it would have been done already 06:14  |  Natallie Durson 02/07/08
      26.   Israel`s progressive dementia 06:15  |  DavidM 02/07/08
      27.   existential threat 06:21  |  Jeff 02/07/08
      28.   Johnboy in Sydney 06:30  |  Jeff 02/07/08
      29.   Lakhshmi, Iranian national pride 06:35  |  Seymour 02/07/08
      30.   Analysis ?? 06:39  |  parviz 02/07/08
      31.   Ziggy stardus 06:47  |  Samar 02/07/08
      32.   David M 06:49  |  Jeff 02/07/08
      33.   Ziggy down under 06:53  |  peter 02/07/08
      34.   Neither 06:59  |  Mark Lincoln 02/07/08
      35.   Israel is the slave of the American right 07:16  |  Mark Lincoln 02/07/08
      36.   Pre-emptive strike is now 07:33  |  Guy From NYC 02/07/08
      37.   Iran fires the first shot 07:34  |  Dror 02/07/08
      38.   DavidM, the world would be far better if you did not exist. 07:36  |  Dan 02/07/08
      39.   #26 Jeff`s spray.... 07:36  |  Johnboy 02/07/08
      40.   Arik Silverman: Nee Hamoud 07:41  |  Brad 02/07/08
      41.   Jeff: Israel`s act of war? 07:43  |  Guy From NYC 02/07/08
      42.   #24 Iran won`t strike first. 07:44  |  Johnboy 02/07/08
      43.   We can?t afford to wait : Time has come for action. 08:07  |  Jean Van Daem 02/07/08
      44.   Iran has already struck first 08:07  |  Bob 02/07/08
      45.   only one thing can prevent every thing 08:12  |  pritesh kukadia 02/07/08
      46.   Silverman, KING of the US 08:34  |  madprof 02/07/08
      47.   hope Israel strike soon - end of Israel - peace in ME 08:35  |  bronstein 02/07/08
      48.   Apeasement is not an option 09:34  |  ScotGuy 02/07/08
      49.   A PREEMTIVE STRIKE ON ISRAEL 09:38  |  Robert 02/07/08
      50.   Mark B what was 2006 except a pre emptive strike by Iran? 09:42  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 02/07/08
      51.   America, such as a disappointment to Israel # 43 09:51  |  Clickfool 02/07/08
      52.   This isn`t what the Zionists of Talkback want to hear 09:54  |  Clickfool 02/07/08
      53.   Blow these Mullas off the Planet NOW 10:10  |  Harvey (Chaim) 02/07/08
      54.   Good to see they are not ALL stoopid at Haaretz 10:13  |  Chanalau, Tova 02/07/08
      55.   #48, Margie, correct 10:13  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 02/07/08
      56.   Attack 10:13  |  Ralph 02/07/08
      57.   ah...ah...me me...me I will attack first 10:20  |  Iranian-american 02/07/08
      58.   iranian dilemma 10:23  |  Denise Thompson 02/07/08
      59.   some facts on Iran`s nuclear weapons program 10:47  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 02/07/08
      60.   The coming destruction of the Israeli economy 10:50  |  Clickfool 02/07/08
      61.   You`ve convinced me, Cipora # 59 10:57  |  Clickfool 02/07/08
      62.   Brad from Canada 11:00  |  Marcos 02/07/08
      63.   PEACE WITH IRAN NOW !!! 11:02  |  Negotiation 02/07/08
      64.   Iran determination 11:13  |  Persian Hero 02/07/08
      65.   Denise Thompson "capitulate or be destroyed." 11:13  |  Marcos 02/07/08
      66.   #61, fool, it is not my decision 11:19  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 02/07/08
      67.   #65 - marcos 11:34  |  WWACD 02/07/08
      68.   Mark Lincoln #35 11:39  |  Rov 02/07/08
      69.   Impervious? 11:48  |  reader 02/07/08
      70.   All this because Israeli officials mouth off 11:49  |  Sheket BeVakasha Hay 02/07/08
      71.   A NEW WAR WILL BE NECESSARY 12:18  |  indrajaya 02/07/08
      72.   Ahmadinejad is too intense for Israelis