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Israel's saber-rattling against Iran could backfire
By Zvi Bar'el, Haaretz Correspondent

increased ballistic capabilities. Shihab 3 and Shihab 4 missiles were perceived until recently as Iran's clearest strategic menace. A few years ago, General Ahmed Wahid, head of Iran's aircraft industries, said Iran did not view the United States as the target of his country's missiles, but rather Israel.
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In contrast with the more distant nuclear threat, Iran has proven ballistic capabilities to hit strategic and civilian targets in Israel, causing huge casualties and enormous damage. Since the nuclear issue burst into military-diplomatic discourse, it is as if the ballistic
issue has been forgotten. Meanwhile, the single-minded perception that only the West and Israel can attack Iran and that Iran cannot launch a preemptive strike or a powerful response has settled in, at least in public discussions.

If the threat to attack Iran is meant to motivate the Iranian people to pressure their leadership, this goal is still far from attained. Ahmadinejad has a strong opposition in parliament and in some sectors of the public, but at the same time widespread consensus exists that the development of nuclear technology is a worthwhile national task. Thus while there is domestic criticism of failing economic policies, and next year's presidential election campaign has already begun, none of the potential candidates speak of halting nuclear development.

It is believed in Iran that continued threats, not to mention a direct attack, might only strengthen Ahmadinejad as the man who is standing strong against the West and Israel, and increase the feeling that nuclear armament is necessary.

The commander of the Revolutionary Guards Mohammed Ali Jafari warned this week that Iran would respond to an attack by closing the strait of Hormuz, preventing the passage of oil from the Gulf states, which would spike world oil prices.

Israel, which had to extricate itself from accusations that it dragged the U.S. into war in Iraq, will find it difficult to withstand pressure that it, and not Iran, is responsible for another rise in oil prices, perhaps the most dramatic to date, and the subsequent damage to global economy. The hike in oil prices following Mofaz's statements may be proof of this scenario.

Iran's nuclear threat has created an interesting anti-Iranian coalition that includes Arab countries along with the U.S. and Israel. For the first time, Arab statesmen are saying that the Iranian nuclear threat against Arab countries is more concrete than the Israeli threat on them. However, this coalition will have difficulty tolerating an Israeli attack on Iran, especially if such an attack also brings about an Iranian attack on nearby Arab countries.

Related articles:
  • State Dept. denies report Israel likely to attack Iran this year
  • Iran military chief says Israel can't stop nuclear program
  • Is an attack on Iran a big risk?
  • Sources: Iran may attack Israeli targets abroad over Syria talks
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      1.   Dangling sword 01:33  |  jjvanka 02/07/08
      2.   In every cloud there is a silver lining 01:39  |  Jazmine 02/07/08
      3.   Striking First..... 01:44  |  Michael Matters 02/07/08
      4.   Haaretz, what cheap propaghanda is this? 01:48  |  Mark B. 02/07/08
      5.   Zvi Barel thinks he could sit it out on the fence 02:13  |  Absolute Sweden 02/07/08
      6.   If Iran atack first 02:36  |  Peter 02/07/08
      7.   No right to a nuclear monopoly 02:39  |  gearoid 02/07/08
      8.   Desperate 03:05  |  Arfan 02/07/08
      9.   It is 50/50 03:31  |  zarebin 02/07/08
      10.   FEAR!! 03:38  |  The Fear Monger 02/07/08
      11.   Not only is the nuclear issue a matter of national pride,but 03:50  |  lakshmi 02/07/08
      12.   Gearoid (#7) 04:02  |  jjvanka 02/07/08
      13.   Peter #6 04:29  |  Thomas Rudolph 02/07/08
      14.   To Mr. Belfast 04:41  |  Commonsense 02/07/08
      15.   A strike on Iran will be disastrous 04:47  |  Ziggy 02/07/08
      16.   Israel has no choice but to destroy Iran`s nuclear effort. 05:01  |  Albert Einstein 02/07/08
      17.   who will PROFIT first? 05:12  |  ljf-canada 02/07/08
      18.   Israel`s act of war? 05:12  |  Jeff 02/07/08
      19.   #7 Belfast 05:20  |  Jeff 02/07/08
      20.   ATTACK ON IRAN WILL GRAVELY INJURE ISRAEL 05:22  |  Arik Silverman 02/07/08
      21.   To #16 Oil prices 05:52  |  Frank 02/07/08
      22.   #14 You can not be serious, Jeff 05:57  |  Johnboy 02/07/08
      23.   This so silly 06:06  |  Robert 02/07/08
      24.   Reply to Absolute Sweden (#5) - Spot On 06:12  |  Tod Zuckerman 02/07/08
      25.   If Iran would strike first, it would have been done already 06:14  |  Natallie Durson 02/07/08
      26.   Israel`s progressive dementia 06:15  |  DavidM 02/07/08
      27.   existential threat 06:21  |  Jeff 02/07/08
      28.   Johnboy in Sydney 06:30  |  Jeff 02/07/08
      29.   Lakhshmi, Iranian national pride 06:35  |  Seymour 02/07/08
      30.   Analysis ?? 06:39  |  parviz 02/07/08
      31.   Ziggy stardus 06:47  |  Samar 02/07/08
      32.   David M 06:49  |  Jeff 02/07/08
      33.   Ziggy down under 06:53  |  peter 02/07/08
      34.   Neither 06:59  |  Mark Lincoln 02/07/08
      35.   Israel is the slave of the American right 07:16  |  Mark Lincoln 02/07/08
      36.   Pre-emptive strike is now 07:33  |  Guy From NYC 02/07/08
      37.   Iran fires the first shot 07:34  |  Dror 02/07/08
      38.   DavidM, the world would be far better if you did not exist. 07:36  |  Dan 02/07/08
      39.   #26 Jeff`s spray.... 07:36  |  Johnboy 02/07/08
      40.   Arik Silverman: Nee Hamoud 07:41  |  Brad 02/07/08
      41.   Jeff: Israel`s act of war? 07:43  |  Guy From NYC 02/07/08
      42.   #24 Iran won`t strike first. 07:44  |  Johnboy 02/07/08
      43.   We can?t afford to wait : Time has come for action. 08:07  |  Jean Van Daem 02/07/08
      44.   Iran has already struck first 08:07  |  Bob 02/07/08
      45.   only one thing can prevent every thing 08:12  |  pritesh kukadia 02/07/08
      46.   Silverman, KING of the US 08:34  |  madprof 02/07/08
      47.   hope Israel strike soon - end of Israel - peace in ME 08:35  |  bronstein 02/07/08
      48.   Apeasement is not an option 09:34  |  ScotGuy 02/07/08
      49.   A PREEMTIVE STRIKE ON ISRAEL 09:38  |  Robert 02/07/08
      50.   Mark B what was 2006 except a pre emptive strike by Iran? 09:42  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 02/07/08
      51.   America, such as a disappointment to Israel # 43 09:51  |  Clickfool 02/07/08
      52.   This isn`t what the Zionists of Talkback want to hear 09:54  |  Clickfool 02/07/08
      53.   Blow these Mullas off the Planet NOW 10:10  |  Harvey (Chaim) 02/07/08
      54.   Good to see they are not ALL stoopid at Haaretz 10:13  |  Chanalau, Tova 02/07/08
      55.   #48, Margie, correct 10:13  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 02/07/08
      56.   Attack 10:13  |  Ralph 02/07/08
      57.   ah...ah...me me...me I will attack first 10:20  |  Iranian-american 02/07/08
      58.   iranian dilemma 10:23  |  Denise Thompson 02/07/08
      59.   some facts on Iran`s nuclear weapons program 10:47  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 02/07/08
      60.   The coming destruction of the Israeli economy 10:50  |  Clickfool 02/07/08
      61.   You`ve convinced me, Cipora # 59 10:57  |  Clickfool 02/07/08
      62.   Brad from Canada 11:00  |  Marcos 02/07/08
      63.   PEACE WITH IRAN NOW !!! 11:02  |  Negotiation 02/07/08
      64.   Iran determination 11:13  |  Persian Hero 02/07/08
      65.   Denise Thompson "capitulate or be destroyed." 11:13  |  Marcos 02/07/08
      66.   #61, fool, it is not my decision 11:19  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 02/07/08
      67.   #65 - marcos 11:34  |  WWACD 02/07/08
      68.   Mark Lincoln #35 11:39  |  Rov 02/07/08
      69.   Impervious? 11:48  |  reader 02/07/08
      70.   All this because Israeli officials mouth off 11:49  |  Sheket BeVakasha Hay 02/07/08
      71.   A NEW WAR WILL BE NECESSARY 12:18  |  indrajaya 02/07/08
      72.   Ahmadinejad is too intense for Israelis 12:33  |  Natallie Durson 02/07/08
      73.   #7 gearoid 12:53  |  Jim 02/07/08
      74.   Israel`s saber rattling could back fire 13:00  |  Millicent 02/07/08
      75.   #14 Commonsense 13:10  |  Jim 02/07/08
      76.   zionists jumping at their own shadows! 13:11  |  lakshmi 02/07/08
      77.   Everyone is Sabre Rattling 13:12  |  Ronnie Wolman 02/07/08
      78.   CLICKFOOL (#60 + #All) Don`t worry yourself with so much Question 13:13  |  Gil 02/07/08
      79.   Haaretz"Report: Iran willing to suspend nuclear program for at le 13:36  |  PETER SM 02/07/08
      80.   #26 David M 13:42  |  Jim 02/07/08
      81.   #72, Durson 13:44  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 02/07/08
      82.   DURSON& Usual Israel bashers. Iran blinked! 13:45  |  PETER SM 02/07/08
      83.   It does backfire already! 13:45  |  Sens 02/07/08
      84.   Backfiring on Empty Drums 13:48  |  Brod 02/07/08
      85.   #79, Peter SM, is it not dandy conveniet 13:51  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 02/07/08
      86.   Peace Now? 13:54  |  SakuraOne 02/07/08
      87.   Denise Thompson-talkback misfits! #58 13:56  |  greg 02/07/08
      88.   LOL - The iranians backing down so soon 13:57  |  Denise Thompson 02/07/08
      89.   Dying to see the deluded liberals 14:12  |  Denise Thompson 02/07/08
      90.   Cipora Julianna Kohn#66 This also comes from the IAEA 14:14  |  examiner 02/07/08
      91.   iran backed into a wall, drops its knife 14:29  |  Denise Thompson 02/07/08
      92.   Iran will be hit and hard. 14:58  |  petra 02/07/08
      93.   Iran will be hit and hard. 14:58  |  petra 02/07/08
      94.   Iran will be hit and hard. 14:58  |  petra 02/07/08
      95.   Journalism 101- this is not news, its opinion 15:00  |  Jonas Menchik 02/07/08
      96.   Iran will close the straight of Hormuz, The world declares WW3 15:13  |  Simon 02/07/08
      97.   Israeli Announcements 15:14  |  Ron 02/07/08
      98.   For Gil in Haifa # 78 15:25  |  Clickfool 02/07/08
      99.   Dear Israel, I think of you often. 15:31  |  Erastus CoupDeVille 02/07/08
      100.   For Peter SM, on Iran "blinking" # 82 15:32  |  Clickfool 02/07/08
      101.   Lets do a cost benefit analysis. 15:59  |  greg 02/07/08
      102.   Saber- rattling is of the past. We are now in the present. 16:22  |  Stephen. 02/07/08
      103.   The wolf who cried "little boy" 16:23  |  Tosefta 02/07/08
      104.   Ziggy`s comments 16:27  |  Alan 02/07/08
      105.   #92,93,94 16:32  |  Persian Hero 02/07/08
      106.   Speculation, speculation 16:37  |  George 02/07/08
      107.   What coalition? 16:39  |  Mark Lincoln 02/07/08
      108.   CLICKFOOL (#96) More Questions 16:39  |  Gil 02/07/08
      109.   CLICKFOOL (#96) More Questions 16:40  |  Gil 02/07/08
      110.   Clickfool, Natalie Durston and Indrajaya will be back-fired 17:05  |  ScotGuy 02/07/08
      111.   Denise Thompson 17:13  |  Marcos 02/07/08
      112.   The wolf who cried "little boy" 17:28  |  Tosefta 02/07/08
      113.   Iran offers suspension of nuclear enrichment! 17:31  |  Realist 02/07/08
      114.   ridiculous... 17:38  |  Philippe M. 02/07/08
      115.   For Gil, again # 98 17:46  |  Clickfool 02/07/08
      116.   Denise Thompson and "the Straights." 17:52  |  Marcos 02/07/08
      117.   What Iran `might` do is play the long game 17:56  |  greg 02/07/08
      118.   israel 17:58  |  azad 02/07/08
      119.   Ronnie Wollman 18:01  |  Dror 02/07/08
      120.   Waiting game 18:25  |  Dror 02/07/08
      121.   Haaretz 10% news, 90% liberal politics 18:33  |  Denise Thompson 02/07/08
      122.   Dang, Israel won again. 18:45  |  Iranian-American 02/07/08
      123.   very wise article 18:55  |  paulo2005 02/07/08
      124.   JJ vanka 18:56  |  Donald A. Rosenberg, 02/07/08
      125.   Keeping Quiet Won`t Protect Israel 19:01  |  B (The other one) 02/07/08
      126.   The missing Ukrainian nuke Cruise missiles 19:10  |  Mike 02/07/08
      127.   russia and china don`t care for excuses 19:21  |  Denise Thompson 02/07/08
      128.   rational johnnboy 19:30  |  jeff 02/07/08
      129.   guy from nyc 19:35  |  jeff 02/07/08
      130.   Mark Lincoln # 97 re: coalition 19:50  |  American in NY 02/07/08
      131.   There Must Be A Way... 19:53  |  Yosemite 02/07/08
      132.   Israel`s Saber Rattling 19:58  |  Gary 02/07/08
      133.   For Iranian-American # 110 20:04  |  Clickfool 02/07/08
      134.   I Guess The Best Solution Is... 20:15  |  Yosemite 02/07/08
      135.   Israel vs. Iran 20:33  |  Ed 02/07/08
      136.   YOU CALL THAT A POLICY? 20:35  |  tad chase 02/07/08
      137.   Does anybody remember the last war Iran was in? 20:35  |  Jack 02/07/08
      138.   CLICKFOOL (#104) 20:38  |  Gil 02/07/08
      139.   CLICKFOOL (#104) 20:38  |  Gil 02/07/08
      140.   IDF loudmouth generals who remain in rear, take it in the rear 20:45  |  Yossi Cronenberg 02/07/08
      141.   #112 Mike from Denver 20:48  |  Persian Hero 02/07/08
      142.   #112 Mike from Denver 20:52  |  Persian Hero 02/07/08
      143.   #113 Denise Thompson -....Good luck with your studies! 21:08  |  javier 02/07/08
      144.   #113 Denise Thompson -....Good luck with your studies! 21:08  |  javier 02/07/08
      145.   Margie in TA 21:26  |  Mark B. 02/07/08
      146.   Iranian threat 21:30  |  Paul 02/07/08
      147.   #14 commonsense 21:32  |  gearoid 02/07/08
      148.   LOL, javier, thx for the big chuckle 21:33  |  Mark B. 02/07/08
      149.   #19 jeff 21:37  |  gearoid 02/07/08
      150.   Jeff 21:42  |  Guy From NYC 02/07/08
      151.   #73 jim 21:48  |  gearoid 02/07/08
      152.   #130 javier 21:50  |  Persian Hero 02/07/08
      153.   #12 jjvanka 21:54  |  gearoid 02/07/08
      154.   To the Haaretz censors 22:33  |  ScotGuy 02/07/08
      155.   Warning! Don`t o anything While Olmert is around..... 22:43  |  Dollly 02/07/08
      156.   Zvi` would rather Help Iran with it`s nuclear weapons 22:46  |  Baruch Gold 02/07/08
      157.   To Tosefta (#102) 22:53  |  Morris Valentine 02/07/08
      158.   Peace through deterrence 23:06  |  Colin Wright 02/07/08
      159.   For Scotguy # 140 23:12  |  Clickfool 02/07/08
      160.   LOL - Iranian FM: Tehran sees `new atmosphere` in nuclear talks 23:16  |  Denise Thompson 02/07/08
      161.   Weather forecast: Heavy sabre rattling amid serious diplomacy 23:47  |  Jacob Blues 02/07/08
      162.   Unfortunately, those on the talkback boards hold to the pretense 23:54  |  Jacob Blues 02/07/08
      163.   #53 Harvey 23:54  |  alan 02/07/08
      164.   DavidM is right!!! 00:28  |  Keith T. 03/07/08
      165.   Can we be sure? 00:34  |  Franz Michaelis 03/07/08
      166.   Can we be sure? 00:51  |  Franz Michaelis 03/07/08
      167.   #64. Persian Hero. "Marg bar Esraiil"..! 00:57  |  Stephen. 03/07/08
      168.   #112 Mike---well, yes, those missing nuke 01:18  |  ballistic 03/07/08
      169.   #113 Say Denise 01:20  |  ballistic 03/07/08
      170.   #140 Say ScotGuy re Clickfool 01:24  |  ballistic 03/07/08
      171.   Names and things - Tosefta 01:27  |  Mark Lincoln 03/07/08
      172.   #142 Baruch 01:28  |  ballistic 03/07/08
      173.   Do not be silly Mike 01:30  |  Mark Lincoln 03/07/08
      174.   #116 American in NY 01:32  |  ballistic 03/07/08
      175.   #115 Jeff, Iran has not attacked anybody 01:34  |  ballistic 03/07/08
      176.   #26 David M 01:37  |  ballistic 03/07/08
      177.   #38 Say Dan in Canada re David M 01:42  |  ballistic 03/07/08
      178.   #59 Cipora, so what? 01:45  |  ballistic 03/07/08
      179.   Rov, I understand your position 01:46  |  Mark Lincoln 03/07/08
      180.   Who`s side is Israel really on? 01:48  |  Maureen Ann 03/07/08
      181.   Where was the `arab support" for conquering Iran? - American in N 01:51  |  Mark Lincoln 03/07/08
      182.   Jack, yes I remember the Iran/Iraq war 01:57  |  Mark Lincoln 03/07/08
      183.   It depends Franz Michaelis 02:01  |  Mark Lincoln 03/07/08
      184.   guy from nyc #136 02:04  |  jeff 03/07/08
      185.   USA Forces in the Gulf on Alert! 02:08  |  Monitor 03/07/08
      186.   ballistic #152 02:12  |  jeff 03/07/08
      187.   LOL @ Denise Thompson #113 #129 03:01  |  Roo 03/07/08
      188.   #90, examiner 03:51  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 03/07/08
      189.   #129, YOSSI AND HIS INTELLIGENCE 03:56  |  VIPER 03/07/08
      190.   #160 Mark Lincoln 04:02  |  ballistic 03/07/08
      191.   Arabs, who cares? 05:11  |  Frank 03/07/08
      192.   Mark Lincoln seeing what he wants to see 05:02  |  Jacob Blues 03/07/08
      193.   I doubt it 05:40  |  Riley The Wiley 03/07/08
      194.   Mark Lincoln #166 06:08  |  Rov 03/07/08
      195.   the iranian nuke program 06:29  |  pushkina 03/07/08
      196.   iranian nuke program #2 06:37  |  pushkina 03/07/08
      197.   pushkina 07:26  |  Ramius 03/07/08
      198.   #192, Ramius 08:03  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 03/07/08
      199.   I voted for Hillary,she promised to obliterate Iran if it attacke 08:04  |  Susanna/Shoshana 03/07/08
      200.   For Clicktool #155 08:12  |  ScotGuy 03/07/08
      201.   I am of 2 minds Susanna/Shoshana and New York-lets see what devel 08:25  |  Susanna/Shoshana 03/07/08
      202.   Forget Saber Rattling! Use The Neutron Bomb Already! 09:22  |  Ethan 03/07/08
      203.   Nuke Them First! Use The Neutron Bomb Already! 09:44  |  Ethan 03/07/08
      204.   Cipora Julianna Kohn #188 10:53  |  examiner 03/07/08
      205.   #203 Ethan - aka Jimmy Neutron 17:40  |  gearoid 03/07/08
      206.   Dangling Sword 18:14  |  Rick 03/07/08
      207.   No right to a nuclear monopoly 18:19  |  Rick 03/07/08
      208.   A strike on Iran will be disastrous 18:24  |  Rick 03/07/08
      209.   Zvi You forget Syria factor on Arabs in case of ware 01:49  |  Tayfun_Turkey 04/07/08
      210.   I guess we should all go to Masada and wait to be annihilated 03:56  |  Edward 07/07/08
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