Why do Arabs prefer Hamas over Fatah?

"The Arab-Israeli conflict remains a central issue for most Arabs," concludes Shibley Telhami. But do we really need a poll to understand that?

The Anwar Sadat Professor for Peace and Development at the University of Maryland, and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Saban Center at Brookings, Telhami was presenting the findings of new polls on Tuesday.

Whether one likes it or not, whether this is justified or not, "the Arab-Israeli issue remains the prism through which most Arabs view the world." In fact, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was never higher on the agenda as it is today, at least since 2002, the year Telhami started conducting this annual poll. According to the study, 88 percent of Egyptians rank it among the top three most important issues, while 100 percent of Jordanians do the same.

In addition, 99 percent of Lebanese rank this issue as one of the top three. One would think Lebanese have other things to worry about. Yet, 40 percent of them have changed their view of Hezbollah for the better, compared to just 29 percent who now see Hezbollah more negatively than in the past.

Among Arabs in general, 56 percent said the Israeli-Palestinian issue was the single most important issue compared to 43 percent in 2003, 56 percent in 2004, 24 percent in 2005, and 43 percent in 2006.

Another interesting part of the study has to do with the Fatah-Hamas divide. The headline reads:

In all six countries surveyed (those polled were all non-Palestinian Arabs), Arabs favored Hamas over Fatah.

They also wanted to see a Palestinian unity government. Palestinian polls that Telhami mentions in his paper keep showing some advantage for Fatah, but also that the leader of Hamas in Gaza would defeat Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in a head to head election (47 percent for Ismail Haniyeh, 46 percent for Abbas).

Telhami asked in the poll: "What step taken by Washington would most improve your views of the United States?" The options he presented the participants in the poll were:

Pushing for the spread of democracy in the Middle East even more.
Providing more economic assistance to the region.
Stopping economic and military aid to Israel.
Withdrawing American forces from Iraq.
Withdrawing American forces from the Arabian peninsula.
Brokering comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace.

As for what they choose: "Fifty percent of the public identified brokering Arab-Israeli peace based on the 1967 border as the single most important step to improving their views of the United States."

The statistic represents a drop when compared with 2006, when "more than 60% of respondents chose brokering Arab-Israeli peace as the number one answer." Clearly, a U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq is becoming more important (from 33 percent in 2006 to 44 percent in 2008).

Yet there are still some good news. "Those who are in principle opposed to an agreement with Israel are a minority in every country, with a majority stating that they would accept a peace agreement based on the 1967 borders." Apparently, the poll respondents do not see a contradiction between wanting an agreement and supporting Hamas, which does not recognize Israel. Telhami thinks it's because most Arabs "do not believe that Israelis will ever accept such peace." Arabs are also skeptical when asked if peace is coming anytime soon: "55 percent expressed the view that it will never happen, while only 13 percent stated that they believe it is achievable in the next five years."

As for Israel's image, "35 percent believed Israel was weaker, while 16 percent said Israel remained strong." Better than 2006, in the shadow of the Second Lebanon War, when 46 percent believed Israel is getting weaker. By the way, Egyptians (50 percent) and Moroccans (44 percent) were more likely than Lebanese (38 percent) and Saudis (37 percent) to believe that Israel is now weaker.

When Arabs were asked to identify the leader they admire the most the number one answer was: Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah.

Only a minority of Arabs believe that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons. I think this is strange, but numbers do not lie (people might lie, though, when they are asked such questions). It is even stranger than one might think if one considers the fact that in 2006, most Arabs believed that Iran was trying to acquire nuclear weapons. What happened between 2006 and 2008? The only thing I can think of is the idiotic NIE report on Iran , but assuming that the Arab masses read it and believe it is kind of strange too.

Considering these findings, perhaps it is not so surprising that Arabs do not want the world to pressure Iran. After all, why pressure a country that does not have any sinister intentions?