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ANALYSIS / Prisoner swap is capitulation to blackmail by terrorists
By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Ehud Goldwasser, Hezbollah 

At bottom, it was another painful lesson in the limits of power. The same government that on July 12, 2006 embarked, without fully thinking it through, on a war in which it vowed to bring back the hostages (three ministers have since quit; five joined) on Sunday voted with a heavy heart for the deal that will finally put the war Second Lebanon War to rest. We cannot overlook the gap between Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's declaration, a few hours after the abduction ("We will not give in to blackmail and will not negotiate with terrorists when it comes to the lives of Israel Defense Forces soldiers") and the deal with Hezbollah approved on Sunday. Much ground has been covered from the early arrogant pronouncements to the current hard reality.

The truth needs to be said: Israel did indeed capitulate to blackmail by a terror organization, after conducting lengthy negotiations with it. It is releasing five live prisoners, in return for (almost certainly) the bodies of the soldiers Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser. But we should also admit that this is what Israel has always done, under similar circumstances. When hostages could not be freed by force, negotiations were held and concessions made, in many previous deals. Moreover, the price this time is lower than we paid in the past.

The deal secured by the government's coordinator of hostage talks, Ofer Dekel, appears to be the most reasonable deal one could be obtained under the present circumstances. Hezbollah would not sign a deal that did not include murderer Samir Kuntar's release.
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Despite last week's embarrassing events, a deal was finally approved. A vast majority of ministers (22, including the prime minister, versus three) concluded there is no getting around it. Olmert's surprising and highly-publicized vacillating, up to the last minute, made no real difference; nor did the farce surrounding the peculiar directive for the chief military rabbi to consider declaring the hostages dead.

In the end, the ministers listened mainly to a harsh debate between two people: Mossad chief Meir Dagan and IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi. Many of them could see the logic in the gloomy warnings by Dagan and his colleague, Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin, about the expected victory celebrations in Lebanon. But Ashkenazi was evidently more persuasive in his steadfast argument for bringing his soldiers home, alive or dead. And the ministers doubtless had ringing in their ears the tough sentiments of the hostages' families, who spent last week lobbying every last minister to go through with the deal.

The cabinet meeting was yet more proof of the American political observation that you stand where you sit. While Diskin opposed the deal, three ministers - his former commanders in the Shin Bet - supported it: Avi Dicter, Ami Ayalon and Gideon Ezra. In the background, of course, there is the Ron Arad affair. The ministers apparently accepted the argument Major General (Res.) Amos Gilad made on this matter: Kuntar is a burden, not an asset, from Israel's standpoint. The real concession on Arad was made in the [Elhanan] Tennenbaum deal, with the release of the real "bargaining chips," Mustafa Dirani and Sheikh Obeid. Leaving Kuntar in jail won't bring salvation. All Israel can expect is a relatively detailed report of Hezbollah's failed efforts to discover what happened to Arad.

We still need to wait for the deal to go through, maybe close to the second anniversary of the kidnapping. It's not over till it's over, but the satisfaction radiating from Beirut on Sunday indicates that Hezbollah does not plan to torpedo what it has already achieved.

Related articles:
  • Sources: Hezbollah swap likely by Lebanon war anniversary
  • Mother of missing soldier: Hezbollah will kidnap again if Kuntar not returned
  • ANALYSIS / Nasrallah preparing for Kuntar's homecoming
  • Free the monster Samir Kuntar
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      1.   It`s tabnith haeish etc... 04:03  |  Paul 30/06/08
      2.   Israel is being led by idiots 04:08  |  Rabbi Yakov Lazaros 30/06/08
      3.   should have exchanged brain dead `olmert for the dead soldiers 05:03  |  chaim 30/06/08
      4.   Mid term conseequences 05:26  |  Ilan 30/06/08
      5.   Sheer Idiocy - The 22 Ministers Have Endangered Future Captives 05:43  |  Tod Zuckerman 30/06/08
      6.   The Israeli mind set must change 06:13  |  gus 30/06/08
      7.   Wrong analysis 06:16  |  Frank 30/06/08
      8.   Just a LITTLE story about olmert I RECENTLY found out 06:57  |  CK Tan 30/06/08
      9.   Occupying the low ground 07:08  |  Natallie Durson 30/06/08
      10.   Alterations for the swap 07:19  |  howiej 30/06/08
      11.   Hassan "Body Snatcher" Nasrallah and Samir "Baby Killer" Kuntar 07:21  |  Janet 30/06/08
      12.   And that is exactly why Olmert has to go 07:26  |  McQueen 30/06/08
      13.   Olmert`s vacillation... 08:01  |  Esther 30/06/08
      14.   No reason to keep captive soldiers alive 08:04  |  Lemmings Hotline 30/06/08
      15.   It`s only prepration to force pal "rght of return" down the throa 08:08  |  Absolute Sweden 30/06/08
      16.   an inaccuracy in this article 08:35  |  Leon Rosgarten 30/06/08
      17.   Israel & USA 09:01  |  MiddleStanian 30/06/08
      18.   G-d Save Gilad Shalit 09:04  |  Proud Israeli 30/06/08
      19.   Thanks, CK, for the good news 09:05  |  Northerner 30/06/08
      20.   Outsider 09:07  |  Di 30/06/08
      21.   Prisoner swap is capitulation to blackmail by terrorists 09:16  |  Moshe 30/06/08
      22.   Prisoner swap is capitulation to blackmail by terrorists 09:40  |  Moshe 30/06/08
      23.   May have sealed the fate of Shalit 10:24  |  Ilan 30/06/08
      24.   Prisoner and Red Cross 10:58  |  FO 30/06/08
      25.   shame on zionist israel 13:37  |  observer 30/06/08
      26.   Olmert says what is "convenient" to him in each situation at hand 13:39  |  AliciaYasmeen 30/06/08
      27.   Seal the fate of Olmert 13:50  |  Mike 30/06/08
      28.   To # 2 Rabbi Yaacov Lazaros - The `deal` 13:54  |  Dagma 30/06/08
      29.   SRILL NOT LEARNING THE LESSON 13:55  |  Mohamed MALLECK 30/06/08
      30.   # 19 Northerner - Best wishes to you 14:17  |  CK Tan 30/06/08
      31.   Israel`s first defeat since Bar Kochba 14:24  |  dyinglikeflies 30/06/08
      32.   Who is a terrorist, 14:48  |  Dav. 30/06/08
      33.   Current Govt. harmed state of Israel - whatever the cause... 14:56  |  17 30/06/08
      34.   #24 FO. Let us not forget 15:08  |  Dav 30/06/08
      35.   NOT THE LEFT AND NOT THE RIGHT 15:11  |  Brant 30/06/08
      36.   What REALLY sealed the Fate of the IDF ..... 15:14  |  Dolly 30/06/08
      37.   what is war, then? 15:29  |  Joshua 30/06/08
      38.   Oldmerde and the Turkish option 15:31  |  Myron Ernst 30/06/08
      39.   Turn this into Victory! 15:35  |  utagawa 30/06/08
      40.   Goldwasser and Regev 15:39  |  Clickfool 30/06/08
      41.   A Manipulating, Maneuvering Corrupt Government fighting not f 15:45  |  Natasha 30/06/08
      42.   May be import honest, knowledgeable, experienced 15:48  |  17 30/06/08
      43.   #40 - Clickfool 15:49  |  Maurice 30/06/08
      44.   Dav # 32 Neither 16:12  |  Jeff Northridge 30/06/08
      45.   It`s not easy to make death people alive again 16:21  |  Edith 30/06/08
      46.   No Gus, apparently there are no Israeli prisoners, only bodies 16:22  |  Jacob Blues 30/06/08
      47.   This goverment has lost whatever respect it had left 16:27  |  AA 30/06/08
      48.   Parties in Beruit as another baby killer is honored 16:28  |  Jacob Blues 30/06/08
      49.   Samir the Merciless Butcher 17:07  |  Yakov 30/06/08
      50.   #32 DENSE dav REGURGITATES the MILLION cluster bomb LIE 17:37  |  CK Tan 30/06/08
      51.   Maurice 17:38  |  recon 30/06/08
      52.   The Real Story Of The Birth Of The Hezbollah 17:43  |  The Plaintruth 30/06/08
      53.   Pro-Islam TERROR ENABLER Israeli Leaders Unfit to Rule 17:52  |  Linda Rivera 30/06/08
      54.   "take no prisoners" has a whole new meaning(rationale) 17:55  |  r 30/06/08
      55.   The Plaintruth Right on the Money 18:21  |  Ramius 30/06/08
      56.   Capitulation to blackmail 19:00  |  Steve Gure 30/06/08
      57.   Reply to Ck Tan ( #30) - Spot On 19:03  |  Tod Zuckerman 30/06/08
      58.   Jacob Blues @48 19:15  |  GABE1 30/06/08
      59.   CK Tan # 50 Dav Is Counting Bomblets 19:17  |  Jeff Northridge 30/06/08
      60.   MenachenBegin&KingDavidHotel 19:24  |  Who´s The Terrorist? 30/06/08
      61.   Look in the mirror : you`ll find IDF as no less terrorist than ot 19:33  |  Aounist 30/06/08
      62.   To Steve Gure # 56 - Capitulation and Olmert 20:14  |  Dolly 30/06/08
      63.   To Steve Gure # 56 - Capitulation and Olmert...... 20:32  |  Dolly 30/06/08
      64.   Israel And Her Soldiers 20:34  |  Jeff Northridge 30/06/08
      65.   Aounist #61- Spoken as a true dhimmi 20:36  |  Janet 30/06/08
      66.   61 Aounist: Look in the mirror 20:45  |  KUTW 30/06/08
      67.   Natallie, Hezbollah IS a terrorist organization 20:46  |  dany 30/06/08
      68.   Mohammed Malleck....self defeating is exactly 20:52  |  Lynn 30/06/08
      69.   For your consideration - Another view of our "illustrious" PM... 21:02  |  bat yam 30/06/08
      70.