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All quiet on Nasrallah's front By Zvi Bar'el Tags: Hezbollah "We are committed to the Palestinians' problem," Nawaf al-Mussawi, Hezbollah's foreign relations official, said in a speech this week. "And we are insisting that Palestinian prisoners be released with the Lebanese prisoners." But Hezbollah isn't only seeking the release of Palestinian prisoners - there are also Jordanians and Arab-Israelis being held by Israel. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last publicly referred to the prisoners deal in a speech in May, marking the eighth anniversary of Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon. At the time, he also hinted that the return of the Lebanese prisoners was "very close." After that appearance, the only Hezbollah official to refer to a possible swap was Nabil Kauk, who commands the organization's southern sector. In the past week, no one in Lebanon has heard Nasrallah mention the deal. His aides have also up and vanished. Advertisement The Lebanese media, including those agencies close to Hezbollah, made do with a broad citation of the analyses and commentaries published in the Israeli press. Articles from Haaretz, Yedioth Ahronoth and Maariv - as well as Israel Television (Channel One) - took the place of original Lebanese stories. Not a single Hezbollah parliament member nor any of the organization's military commanders - not even a "knowledgeable source" - has voiced his assessment or leaked information about the situation. A Lebanese journalist following the ups and downs of the deal in the works told Haaretz: "It seems as though somebody is threatening everyone so they won't talk. They haven't even reiterated the usual cliches about how the organization will keep its promises. It could be Nasrallah did not expect such an Israeli response. He constantly relies on the proven equation that Israel always wants its prisoners back, alive or dead, and even just body parts. But this time, Nasrallah has exposed his weakness - his commitment to bring back Samir Kuntar has become as important to him as liberating Lebanon from the occupation. After all, it was because of Kuntar that the Israeli soldiers were abducted. Because of him, the [Second] Lebanon War happened. Without Kuntar, Nasrallah's victory is half-baked." If indeed all of the details of the deal were already sewn up, it will be difficult for Israel to renege. Such are the ethics of swaps. After arranging a deal and implementing its initial stages (releasing Nasim Nassar in exchange for body parts from Hezbollah), Israel must now keep in mind the possibility it will have to carry out another deal in the future with Hezbollah or some other group. Soldiers or civilians have been kidnapped on more than one occasion, and the trust that needs to be established between the two sides if they are to effect exchanges is not achieved overnight. While it was difficult to bring Hezbollah and Israel to negotiate with one another (through a mediator), and even harder to have them complete a deal, both sides fulfilled their initial conditions down to the last detail. Opponents of the exchange deal may present a solid moral front, but they will also bear responsibility for future cases in which the "other side" simply refuses to trust Israel's word. Tracking the public mood A deal with Hamas has yet to be secured, as Israel has not agreed to that organization's list of prisoners. Hamas' Mahmoud al-Zahar explained the disagreement in an interview he gave to the Palestine Now Web site, which serves as a mouthpiece for the group: "We are insisting on the nature of the prisoners, not the number. We want to gain release of the prisoners who have been sentenced to many life terms and those who have spent the longest time in prison. In his day, [Yasser] Arafat had an opportunity to free the prisoners and then Abu Mazen [Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas], but they didn't succeed ... therefore we had to abduct the soldier. "The [Israeli] generation that is ruling in the occupied land is not the generation that believes in what is called the Greater Land of Israel, or the promised land. This is a generation that is guided by interests and utilitarianism only. This is a generation that suffers from its leaders' corruption and the most important thing is the loss of its security. All of this is dictating the way negotiations are conducted vis-a-vis the Zionists." Hamas and Hezbollah are closely tracking the mood in Israel, Israeli leaders' statements and Israeli commentators' analyses. Nonetheless, they may err in properly reading the reality on the ground, as happened when Hezbollah did not imagine Israel would go to war in 2006. For Hamas, the mood of the Israeli public serves as an important indicator of the enemy's decision-making process, and its leaders are convinced that the public pressure in Israel could accord them additional advantages. Hamas and Hezbollah relate far more seriously to Israeli public opinion than Israel does to Palestinian public opinion. Articles and speeches by Palestinians are not considered reliable sources of information or intelligence. But anyone who wants to understand the public constraints the Palestinian leadership faces, and hence the factors that influence the decision-making processes, must also track the responses posted on Web forums of Palestinian groups. For the past two weeks, these sites have been full of comments about a dispute within Hamas between cease-fire proponents and opponents, and about a schism within Iz al-din al-Qassam. Through these sites, it is possible to learn of the importance Hamas and Fatah attribute to national reconciliation. A number of sites have published a call to the public by the Hamas leadership to observe the cease-fire and not to listen to all kinds of provocateurs, "who are addressing you via the Internet." Israel presumes Hamas is able to enforce the cease-fire on all Palestinian military. Officially, Israel's presumption is correct. The cease-fire plan has been approved by all of the Palestinian organizations, and Israel agreed to the cease-fire on the basis of this approval, which Egypt worked hard to achieve. Therefore, not only Hamas is worried about the cracks in its authority - the Egyptians also have cause for concern. If the cease-fire proceeds in an orderly fashion, according to the timetable of the written but unsigned agreement (Israel does not sign agreements with Hamas), then the Gaza-Egypt border will remain calm and Gaza will disappear from Egypt's agenda. If, however, every Palestinian organization starts to follow its own policy and strikes Israeli territory, Egypt's authority as a mediator will evaporate. This is also where the important change in the Israeli and Egyptian perception of Hamas lies. From a terror organization devoid of responsibility, it is now a kind of government on probation. If it "behaves responsibly" - that is, if it succeeds in imposing its will on other organizations - then its ideology will cease to be of interest. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Terror in the capital A Palestinian rammed his bulldozer into a bus in Jerusalem, killing three. Poetic injustice Palestinian poet Mahmoud Darwish blends sarcasm and hope in his latest work.

Read & React Shot and bleeding, Jerusalem terrorist kept going to kill baby's mother Responses: 146 ANALYSIS / Terrorist or petty criminal run amok? Responses: 125 Ari Shavit: Strike on Iran is good for Israel and U.S. in long run Responses: 80 Reuven Rivlin: Talkbackers, not security services, are setting Israeli policy Responses: 32 Obama enlists Jewish lawmakers in outreach effort Responses: 54 More Headlines 19:40 Source: Hezbollah swap to take place next week 19:13 Qassam hits Negev, sixth since start of Gaza truce 19:44 Olmert: Raze terrorist's home, revoke family's social benefits 20:13 U.S. envoy: We won't intervene in Israel-Syria talks 20:16 Mother of Kuntar victim: This monster will be a Lebanon hero 12:18 How many missiles will be fired from Iran, Syria, Lebanon in the next war? 19:19 Israeli rabbi to attend Saudi-sponsored interfaith meet 15:59 Jerusalem terrorist's family told to take down mourners' tent 12:59 Obama enlists Jewish lawmakers in outreach effort 13:50 Barak okays construction of dormitory at Hebron seminary 19:09 Hitler wax figure unveiled in Berlin amid criticism 19:00 Haredim riot across Israel in protest of slain rebbetzin's autopsy 14:41 Study: Israelis like to smoke marijuana, less keen on coke 17:22 Man who killed IDF soldier outside Haifa nightclub gets life in prison Previous Editions Select Day 02 jul 01 jul 30 jun 29 jun 27 jun 26 jun 25 jun 24 jun 23 jun 22 jun 20 jun 19 jun

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