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ANALYSIS / Israel is a long way from attacking Iran
By Yossi Melman, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Iran, nuclear program, Israel 

Click here for more articles by Yossi Melman

Israeli leaders and officials have recently intensified their campaign against nuclearIran. The messages from Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to Ambassador to Washington Salai Meridor and Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz is clear: Israel will not tolerate a nuclear Iran. Indeed Israel is very concerned by the likelihood that Iran, whose leadership has called for the Jewish state's destruction, will be able to produce nuclear weapons.

These public statements, as well as closed talks between Israel's leadership and leaders around the world, can be interpreted as "preparing the ground" for the possibility that Israel will attack Iran. It is also correct that all the bodies dealing with the "Iran case," including the Mossad, Military Intelligence, Operations Directorate of the Israel Defense Forces, Israel Air Force and the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission, are planning for the worst-case scenario. This is their professional duty. But one cannot conclude, as many have following a report in The New York Times (June 19) that an Israeli attack is certainly around the corner. Not only has such a decision not been made in any relevant forum in Israel - the question has not even been discussed.
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The decision to attack Iran to foil its nuclear program is from Israel's point of view a last resort, and the chances of it happening depend on many variables, which are unfolding over various time frames  some overlapping, others running in parallel.

The most important variable is Israel's coordination with the United States. As has happened on a number of historic occasions - the 1967 Six-Day War, the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the two Lebanon wars and, most recently, the strike against Syria's nuclear reactor, Israel will not strike Iran without first coordinating its actions with the U.S. This could be a tacit understanding, a flashing yellow light, or a direct request for a green light. Such support is conditioned first and foremost on the question of who will occupy the White House come November.

Another variable is international sanctions on Iran. These are being applied sluggishly. Russia and China are blocking every U.S.-European Union effort to apply painful sanctions that would affect Iran's economy. But Israel has still not given up hope that in Moscow and Beijing will change their policies and impose harsher sanctions.

Another significant factor is the domestic situation in Iran. Next May, presidential elections are scheduled in Iran. If Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei decides he is fed up with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, mostly because of the worsening economic situation, and prevents him from running for another term, or does not support him, this dramatic turn of events could also affect Iran's nuclear program.

Although most experts agree the desire to acquire nuclear weapons is shared by most factions in Iran, differences still exist. It is possible that a new president, from less radical ranks, may agree to suspend uranium enrichment and seek dialogue with the West.

But there could also be an unexpected development in the form of a technological breakthrough: Iran may declare before the elections in February 2009, the 30th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, that it has mastered all stages of uranium enrichment, and is capable of roducing
nuclear arms.

The fourth variable, upon which every political decision in Israel is taken, is of course the operational preparedness of the air force and the other agencies that are party to a strike. Is Israel capable of carrying out a significant blow to the essential sites where Iran is developing nuclear weapons, to the point that the process is stalled for several years?

Only when there are clear answers to these issues will Israeli leaders make a decision. First they will take into account the heavy price Israel may have to pay. Undoubtedly, Iran will retaliate. Above all, Israel will make up its mind only as a last resort after realizing the U.S. will not attack Iran, the regime in Iran will not change its direction and the sanctions remain ineffective. Only then will the Israeli cabinet have to make one of the most fateful and existential decisions in the history of the state.

Related articles:
  • Iran slams reports of Israeli drill in preparation for strike
  • Report: Israel held military drill as prep for attack on Iran
  • Is an attack on Iran a big risk?
  • Major powers offer Iran fresh incentives to halt nuke program
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      1.   anakysis 03:14  |  Fred 22/06/08
      2.   Uninformative article 03:16  |  Josh 22/06/08
      3.   attack 03:54  |  Shmuelshachor 22/06/08
      4.   Israel capitulated even to Hamas,no Iran strke possible while Bar 03:58  |  Absolute Sweden 22/06/08
      5.   Two additional unconsidered worst case scenarios 04:16  |  Born In The USA 22/06/08
      6.   Lying us to war, again. 04:22  |  otiwa ogede 22/06/08
      7.   Not looking at reality? 04:35  |  Larry 22/06/08
      8.   Israel will not attack Iran`s nuclear sites. 04:50  |  Fortuna Benmayor 22/06/08
      9.   This should be kept a secret 05:28  |  Brod 22/06/08
      10.   A long way 05:48  |  Tom Donaly 22/06/08
      11.   The Syrians know that the defeatist Olmert will not stop them 05:58  |  Robinson 22/06/08
      12.   Olmert is a defeatist and will do nothing to stop Iran 06:06  |  Charles Weiss 22/06/08
      13.   #4 Not to mention way more difficuly, Fortuna. 06:19  |  Johnboy 22/06/08
      14.   #4. The US`s loss. 06:29  |  ManintheMiddle 22/06/08
      15.   re#9, A long way 07:15  |  JTA 22/06/08
      16.   A very sound voice, Bravo 07:43  |  Mahmood 22/06/08
      17.   Iran and Syria Will be Wasted 07:48  |  Dave Levy 22/06/08
      18.   Typo in article 08:12  |  Stephen 22/06/08
      19.   Interesting points # 4 "Born in the USA" 08:15  |  Fortuna Benmayor 22/06/08
      20.   Tom Donaly is right, # 9 08:18  |  Fortuna Benmayor 22/06/08
      21.   "a significant blow to the essential sites" 08:18  |  Yonatan 22/06/08
      22.   THEY CAN`T STOP IT, ONLY SLOW IT, AND IRAN ISN`T STUPID 08:27  |  Arik Silverman 22/06/08
      23.   LEARN IRAN`S POLITICAL STRUCTURE 08:49  |  Arik Silverman 22/06/08
      24.   This means the attack will come soon 08:51  |  Montrealer 22/06/08
      25.   ISRAEL`S "EXISTENTIAL" DECISION 08:56  |  Arik Silverman 22/06/08
      26.   Brod on empty drums... 08:56  |  BBSNews 22/06/08
      27.   Will the world tolerate a nuclear Iran? 08:57  |  Jean Van Daem 22/06/08
      28.   Iran needs the bomb to deter Israel 08:57  |  KMS 22/06/08
      29.   ANY analysis is only GOOD at the time it was PUBLICISED 09:29  |  CK Tan 22/06/08
      30.   YOSSI MELMAN MUST KNOW 09:38  |  Robert 22/06/08
      31.   Existentail nonsense 09:52  |  Truth 22/06/08
      32.   MULLAHS WOULD BE ROLLING ON THE FLOOR, BIG TIME 10:21  |  indrajaya 22/06/08
      33.   Sabre-toothed Pussy Cat? 10:24  |  Jeff 22/06/08
      34.   what we do know 10:28  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 22/06/08
      35.   To KMS 10:33  |  Jeff 22/06/08
      36.   KMS #28 - WHO wants to take over the world?? 10:36  |  Elihu 22/06/08
      37.   axel the official figure for the f15 payload is 23000 pounds 10:45  |  yahaskel 22/06/08
      38.   More "analysis" 10:48  |  S 22/06/08
      39.   axel "germany will always be germany" 10:51  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      40.   bbs news is full of bluster 10:57  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      41.   2008 - 2012, Nostradamus, The Bible, etc. 11:00  |  cristian negureanu 22/06/08
      42.   Van Daem - Yes, the world will tolerate 11:01  |  spyguy 22/06/08
      43.   Why Israel will not attack Iran 11:14  |  Clickfool 22/06/08
      44.   Would this new radar make the difference ? 11:25  |  Jean Van Daem 22/06/08
      45.   clickfool "the logistics are horrific" 12:14  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      46.   clickfool"the iranian response will be savage" 12:17  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      47.   clickfool "the lie" is in your heart 12:19  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      48.   For Jean van Daem and his see-through radar # 44 12:22  |  Clickfool 22/06/08
      49.   clickfool you keep touting iran`s military potential 12:23  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      50.   clickfool you forget that israel demonstrated its capability 12:48  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      51.   For Yashekel # 45 13:00  |  Clickfool 22/06/08
      52.   yaheskel: Israel couldn`t destroy Hezbollah what 13:18  |  Tupac 22/06/08
      53.   34 Cipora: Yes and fish don`t retaliate but expect one from Iran 13:24  |  Tupac 22/06/08
      54.   tupac how would iran retaliate against israel 13:29  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      55.   BBSNews #26 13:29  |  Brod 22/06/08
      56.   What are we waiting for then? 13:32  |  cp 22/06/08
      57.   Iran has none, Israel has hundreds 13:32  |  Peter Dain 22/06/08
      58.   KMS #28 13:38  |  Brod 22/06/08
      59.   # 51 clickfool 13:59  |  Axel 22/06/08
      60.   This is not the saber rattling... 14:03  |  Dave 22/06/08
      61.   For Yashekel, again # 54 14:03  |  Clickfool 22/06/08
      62.   Save humanity 14:05  |  petr vojta 22/06/08
      63.   No 3 ShmuelShachor 14:07  |  sohel saheen 22/06/08
      64.   If Israel really intended to attack Iran 14:14  |  Yonatan 22/06/08
      65.   # 54 yaheskel 14:33  |  Axel 22/06/08
      66.   Petr Vojta #62 14:43  |  Brod 22/06/08
      67.   Fortuna: Silence is Golden 14:46  |  Ronnie Wolman 22/06/08
      68.   DAIN you have counted them have you? did you count Iranian WMD`s 14:49  |  PETER SM 22/06/08
      69.   jewish oil speculators 14:51  |  jc 22/06/08
      70.   ANALYSIS / Israel is a long way from attacking Iran 14:53  |  Mark Lincoln 22/06/08
      71.   Hey Arik Silverman... Ryan Braun 14:59  |  jc 22/06/08
      72.   Will ignite israelis the fireball expected by iranians ? 15:01  |  Lou Rothstein 22/06/08
      73.   #45 Yaheskel`s rather touching naivety 15:11  |  Johnboy 22/06/08
      74.   Naive or Misinformation? 15:21  |  Michael 22/06/08
      75.   Clickfool #51 15:25  |  R. Devlin. 22/06/08
      76.   cristian negureanu #41-what about Dracula? 15:33  |  KP Nut 22/06/08
      77.   cristian negureanu #41-what about Dracula? 15:33  |  KP Nut 22/06/08
      78.   NOTICE GIVEN 16:03  |  GABE1 22/06/08
      79.   For R.Devlin # 75 16:15  |  Clickfool 22/06/08
      80.   Fortuna Benmayor @20 16:16  |  Gabe1 22/06/08
      81.   # 75 r.devlin 16:25  |  Axel 22/06/08
      82.   The real target of Israeli histrionics 16:45  |  Tosefta 22/06/08
      83.   # 80 gabe1 16:58  |  Axel 22/06/08
      84.   iran would never attack anyone with a nuclear weapon 17:11  |  terrornator 22/06/08
      85.   Attack on Israel? Or Petrol Politics? 17:20  |  Ronnie Wolman 22/06/08
      86.   Melman and a long way from the truth 17:28  |  Jonathan S 22/06/08
      87.   yaheskel, on Cordesman... 17:58  |  BBSNews 22/06/08
      88.   Tosefta - sound reasons 18:17  |  Mark Lincoln 22/06/08
      89.   And why bother with the truth Tosefta? 18:20  |  Mark Lincoln 22/06/08
      90.   Petrol Paranoia 18:30  |  Mark Lincoln 22/06/08
      91.   #82. You`re on to something. 18:57  |  ManintheMiddle 22/06/08
      92.   Israel will not attack Iran because... 19:38  |  hollingsworth 22/06/08
      93.   Iran must "prepare for the worst case scenario" 20:19  |  Gray 22/06/08
      94.   hell will break loose if israel attacks 20:46  |  mehmet 22/06/08
      95.   TO NO 10 20:47  |  DANNY. 22/06/08
      96.   For Ronnie Wolman # 69 20:57  |  Fortuna Benmayor 22/06/08
      97.   Petrol paranoia (Mark Lincoln #90) 21:04  |  Tosefta 22/06/08
      98.   The question has not even been asked? 21:05  |  Amsterdam Jew 22/06/08
      99.   No Strike 21:16  |  Ron 22/06/08
      100.   Israel is a long way ... 21:39  |  Saila 22/06/08
      101.   Slowman, I am instructing you to stop working NOW! 21:45  |  Dr. Anshel Pepper 22/06/08
      102.   Fortuna Benmayor and Monty Python # 96 21:50  |  Clickfool 22/06/08
      103.   Israel is a long way... 21:52  |  Dick Fitzgerald 22/06/08
      104.   indrajaya,32,those mullahs would be rolling on the floor,looking 21:56  |  terrornator 22/06/08
      105.   New Tsernobyl? 22:03  |  PS 22/06/08
      106.   Peter Dain 57in Netherlands "Iran has none"-luckily for you! 22:04  |  Realist 22/06/08
      107.   johnboy see whitney raas and austin long study 22:04  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      108.   Axel- 22:07  |  GABE1 22/06/08
      109.   johnboy i am sorry but the rest of your post pretty meaningless 22:13  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      110.   johnboy "the targets are numerous" 22:16  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      111.   axel "you are a clown" 22:23  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      112.   ok axel you reply that hizb now has more rockets 22:26  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      113.   "CLICK" THE "FOOL" SPUTTERS ON AND ON !! 22:31  |  JACOB 22/06/08
      114.   and this axel 22:32  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      115.   clickfool for a claimant at brighton unemployment 22:43  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      116.   clickfool l you do not understand that hizb 22:47  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      117.   clickfool one of the reasons iran sued for peace 22:50  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      118.   # 107 yaheskel` s obsession with figures 22:50  |  Axel 22/06/08
      119.   clickfool "iran would close the gulf" 22:54  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      120.   yaheskel, do you read the reports that you cite? 22:57  |  BBSNews 22/06/08
      121.   axel and "greek defense" 23:09  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      122.   #118, Axel, dear fellow, be assured 23:16  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 22/06/08
      123.   axel "nerd" 23:30  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      124.   bbs news anthony cordesman said the following 23:36  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      125.   bbs news "while it is quite true that israel may have a limited 23:38  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      126.   axel "dovish dance around the nominal 23000 figure" 00:23  |  yaheskel 23/06/08
      127.   # 122 CJK 00:35  |  Axel 23/06/08
      128.   # 121 yaheskel 00:38  |  Axel 23/06/08
      129.   yehshkel `one of the reasons` #117 01:02  |  R. Devlin 23/06/08
      130.   yaheskel, obviously, you`re nuts... 01:21  |  BBSNews 23/06/08
      131.   yaheskel, Clickfool has a complete grasp of the situation... 01:30  |  BBSNews 23/06/08
      132.   #79 - Misslie guidance systems are easy 01:33  |  spyguy 23/06/08
      133.   # 43, not so fast... 01:52  |  Steve 23/06/08
      134.   axel "your meglomaniac attitude of omnipotence" 01:53  |  yahaskel 23/06/08
      135.   axel "needs medical advice" 01:56  |  yaheskel 23/06/08
      136.   For Click the python and Monty the fool # 102 01:57  |  Fortuna Benmayor 23/06/08
      137.   axel in the interests of world understanding 02:04  |  yaheskel 23/06/08
      138.   sorry moderator but correction for israel`s friend axel 02:26  |  yaheskel 23/06/08
      139.   r devlin "utter garbage" 02:34  |  yaheskel 23/06/08
      140.   bbs news "israel may gain at the most two years" 02:39  |  yaheskel 23/06/08
      141.   Dear yaheskel & other "heros-to-be" 02:49  |  Gray 23/06/08
      142.   #107 Sorry to disappoint you yaheskel 03:27  |  Johnboy 23/06/08
      143.   #105 Yakeskel embarrasses himself. 03:38  |  Johnboy 23/06/08
      144.   #110 Oh, so its a GAMBLE now, yakeskel??? 03:49  |  Johnboy 23/06/08
      145.   That`s it, a long way off, yeah, that`s it 03:51  |  Joe 23/06/08
      146.   #17, DAVE LEVYS miscalculation 04:04  |  VIPER 23/06/08
      147.   NO WAY! 04:07  |  Neil 23/06/08
      148.   #75, DEVLIN AND HIS BIG MISTAKE 04:12  |  VIPER 23/06/08
      149.   IDF TAKE OUT THEIR NUKE SITES AND BOMB THEIR OIL RESERVES,THEN 05:56  |  glenna 23/06/08
      150.   #137 Johnboy shows his ignorance 06:38  |  Joe 23/06/08
      151.   BBS in his own words Part 3 07:29  |  Stephen in New York 23/06/08
      152.   Axel was upset when 07:41  |  Stephen in New York 23/06/08
      153.   Bashers-Israel doesn`t need your permission 07:44  |  Stephen in New York 23/06/08
      154.   #136, #137, manic john 08:26  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 23/06/08
      155.   manic john, post srcipt 08:27  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 23/06/08
      156.   Israel too smart to attack? 08:50  |  Joe 23/06/08
      157.   For Stephen # 147 09:50  |  Clickfool 23/06/08
      158.   #148 I don`t like Israel acting the idiot, Cipora 09:53  |  Johnboy 23/06/08
      159.   #149 smug Cippie, foot note 10:03  |  Johnboy 23/06/08
      160.   #145 S doing a good impersonation of the Fat Man 10:15  |  Johnboy 23/06/08
      161.   #157, john 10:43  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 23/06/08
      162.   #159 Cipora swallows the propaganda whole 11:10  |  Johnboy 23/06/08
      163.   Now who`s sounding pretentious Cipora? 11:26  |  Roo 23/06/08
      164.   # 153 stephen 11:46  |  Axel 23/06/08
      165.   # 161 CJK 11:53  |  Axel 23/06/08
      166.   Stephen in NY - quite hysterical... 16:22  |  BBSNews 23/06/08
      167.   Yet more histrionics from SNY... 16:29  |  BBSNews 23/06/08
      168.   BS 166 & 167 19:04  |  Stephen in New York 23/06/08
      169.   SNY on BS 19:42  |  BBSNews 23/06/08
      170.   BS169-2 state solution not currently possible 21:16  |  Stephen in New York 23/06/08
      171.   #165, Axel 22:55  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 23/06/08
      172.   #171 Laughable, Cipora 00:58  |  Johnboy 24/06/08
      173.   Well argued! 01:26  |  Niloufar 24/06/08
      174.   Johnboy vs. Cipora-Yiddisha Sechel 03:20  |  Stephen in New York 24/06/08
      175.   SNY 08:44  |  BBSNews 24/06/08
      176.   # 171 CJK 13:04  |  Axel 24/06/08
      177.   Last resort! 23:12  |  Paul 03/08/08
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