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ANALYSIS / Israel is a long way from attacking Iran
By Yossi Melman, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Iran, nuclear program, Israel 

Israeli leaders and officials have recently intensified their campaign against nuclearIran. The messages from Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to Ambassador to Washington Salai Meridor and Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz is clear: Israel will not tolerate a nuclear Iran. Indeed Israel is very concerned by the likelihood that Iran, whose leadership has called for the Jewish state's destruction, will be able to produce nuclear weapons.

These public statements, as well as closed talks between Israel's leadership and leaders around the world, can be interpreted as "preparing the ground" for the possibility that Israel will attack Iran. It is also correct that all the bodies dealing with the "Iran case," including the Mossad, Military Intelligence, Operations Directorate of the Israel Defense Forces, Israel Air Force and the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission, are planning for the worst-case scenario. This is their professional duty. But one cannot conclude, as many have following a report in The New York Times (June 19) that an Israeli attack is certainly around the corner. Not only has such a decision not been made in any relevant forum in Israel - the question has not even been discussed.

The decision to attack Iran to foil its nuclear program is from Israel's point of view a last resort, and the chances of it happening depend on many variables, which are unfolding over various time frames  some overlapping, others running in parallel.
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The most important variable is Israel's coordination with the United States. As has happened on a number of historic occasions - the 1967 Six-Day War, the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the two Lebanon wars and, most recently, the strike against Syria's nuclear reactor, Israel will not strike Iran without first coordinating its actions with the U.S. This could be a tacit understanding, a flashing yellow light, or a direct request for a green light. Such support is conditioned first and foremost on the question of who will occupy the White House come November.

Another variable is international sanctions on Iran. These are being applied sluggishly. Russia and China are blocking every U.S.-European Union effort to apply painful sanctions that would affect Iran's economy. But Israel has still not given up hope that in Moscow and Beijing will change their policies and impose harsher sanctions.

Another significant factor is the domestic situation in Iran. Next May, presidential elections are scheduled in Iran. If Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei decides he is fed up with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, mostly because of the worsening economic situation, and prevents him from running for another term, or does not support him, this dramatic turn of events could also affect Iran's nuclear program.

Although most experts agree the desire to acquire nuclear weapons is shared by most factions in Iran, differences still exist. It is possible that a new president, from less radical ranks, may agree to suspend uranium enrichment and seek dialogue with the West.

But there could also be an unexpected development in the form of a technological breakthrough: Iran may declare before the elections in February 2009, the 30th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, that it has mastered all stages of uranium enrichment, and is capable of roducing
nuclear arms.

The fourth variable, upon which every political decision in Israel is taken, is of course the operational preparedness of the air force and the other agencies that are party to a strike. Is Israel capable of carrying out a significant blow to the essential sites where Iran is developing nuclear weapons, to the point that the process is stalled for several years?

Only when there are clear answers to these issues will Israeli leaders make a decision. First they will take into account the heavy price Israel may have to pay. Undoubtedly, Iran will retaliate. Above all, Israel will make up its mind only as a last resort after realizing the U.S. will not attack Iran, the regime in Iran will not change its direction and the sanctions remain ineffective. Only then will the Israeli cabinet have to make one of the most fateful and existential decisions in the history of the state.

Related articles:
  • Iran slams reports of Israeli drill in preparation for strike
  • Report: Israel held military drill as prep for attack on Iran
  • Is an attack on Iran a big risk?
  • Major powers offer Iran fresh incentives to halt nuke program
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      1.   anakysis 03:14  |  Fred 22/06/08
      2.   Uninformative article 03:16  |  Josh 22/06/08
      3.   attack 03:54  |  Shmuelshachor 22/06/08
      4.   Israel capitulated even to Hamas,no Iran strke possible while Bar 03:58  |  Absolute Sweden 22/06/08
      5.   Two additional unconsidered worst case scenarios 04:16  |  Born In The USA 22/06/08
      6.   Lying us to war, again. 04:22  |  otiwa ogede 22/06/08
      7.   Not looking at reality? 04:35  |  Larry 22/06/08
      8.   Israel will not attack Iran`s nuclear sites. 04:50  |  Fortuna Benmayor 22/06/08
      9.   This should be kept a secret 05:28  |  Brod 22/06/08
      10.   A long way 05:48  |  Tom Donaly 22/06/08
      11.   The Syrians know that the defeatist Olmert will not stop them 05:58  |  Robinson 22/06/08
      12.   Olmert is a defeatist and will do nothing to stop Iran 06:06  |  Charles Weiss 22/06/08
      13.   #4 Not to mention way more difficuly, Fortuna. 06:19  |  Johnboy 22/06/08
      14.   #4. The US`s loss. 06:29  |  ManintheMiddle 22/06/08
      15.   re#9, A long way 07:15  |  JTA 22/06/08
      16.   A very sound voice, Bravo 07:43  |  Mahmood 22/06/08
      17.   Iran and Syria Will be Wasted 07:48  |  Dave Levy 22/06/08
      18.   Typo in article 08:12  |  Stephen 22/06/08
      19.   Interesting points # 4 "Born in the USA" 08:15  |  Fortuna Benmayor 22/06/08
      20.   Tom Donaly is right, # 9 08:18  |  Fortuna Benmayor 22/06/08
      21.   "a significant blow to the essential sites" 08:18  |  Yonatan 22/06/08
      22.   THEY CAN`T STOP IT, ONLY SLOW IT, AND IRAN ISN`T STUPID 08:27  |  Arik Silverman 22/06/08
      23.   LEARN IRAN`S POLITICAL STRUCTURE 08:49  |  Arik Silverman 22/06/08
      24.   This means the attack will come soon 08:51  |  Montrealer 22/06/08
      25.   ISRAEL`S "EXISTENTIAL" DECISION 08:56  |  Arik Silverman 22/06/08
      26.   Brod on empty drums... 08:56  |  BBSNews 22/06/08
      27.   Will the world tolerate a nuclear Iran? 08:57  |  Jean Van Daem 22/06/08
      28.   Iran needs the bomb to deter Israel 08:57  |  KMS 22/06/08
      29.   ANY analysis is only GOOD at the time it was PUBLICISED 09:29  |  CK Tan 22/06/08
      30.   YOSSI MELMAN MUST KNOW 09:38  |  Robert 22/06/08
      31.   Existentail nonsense 09:52  |  Truth 22/06/08
      32.   MULLAHS WOULD BE ROLLING ON THE FLOOR, BIG TIME 10:21  |  indrajaya 22/06/08
      33.   Sabre-toothed Pussy Cat? 10:24  |  Jeff 22/06/08
      34.   what we do know 10:28  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 22/06/08
      35.   To KMS 10:33  |  Jeff 22/06/08
      36.   KMS #28 - WHO wants to take over the world?? 10:36  |  Elihu 22/06/08
      37.   axel the official figure for the f15 payload is 23000 pounds 10:45  |  yahaskel 22/06/08
      38.   More "analysis" 10:48  |  S 22/06/08
      39.   axel "germany will always be germany" 10:51  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      40.   bbs news is full of bluster 10:57  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      41.   2008 - 2012, Nostradamus, The Bible, etc. 11:00  |  cristian negureanu 22/06/08
      42.   Van Daem - Yes, the world will tolerate 11:01  |  spyguy 22/06/08
      43.   Why Israel will not attack Iran 11:14  |  Clickfool 22/06/08
      44.   Would this new radar make the difference ? 11:25  |  Jean Van Daem 22/06/08
      45.   clickfool "the logistics are horrific" 12:14  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      46.   clickfool"the iranian response will be savage" 12:17  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      47.   clickfool "the lie" is in your heart 12:19  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      48.   For Jean van Daem and his see-through radar # 44 12:22  |  Clickfool 22/06/08
      49.   clickfool you keep touting iran`s military potential 12:23  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      50.   clickfool you forget that israel demonstrated its capability 12:48  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      51.   For Yashekel # 45 13:00  |  Clickfool 22/06/08
      52.   yaheskel: Israel couldn`t destroy Hezbollah what 13:18  |  Tupac 22/06/08
      53.   34 Cipora: Yes and fish don`t retaliate but expect one from Iran 13:24  |  Tupac 22/06/08
      54.   tupac how would iran retaliate against israel 13:29  |  yaheskel 22/06/08
      55.   BBSNews #26 13:29  |  Brod 22/06/08
      56.   What are we waiting for then? 13:32  |  cp 22/06/08
      57.   Iran has none, Israel has hundreds 13:32  |  Peter Dain 22/06/08
      58.   KMS #28 13:38  |  Brod 22/06/08
      59.   # 51 clickfool 13:59  |  Axel 22/06/08
      60.   This is not the saber rattling... 14:03  |  Dave 22/06/08
      61.   For Yashekel, again # 54 14:03  |  Clickfool 22/06/08
      62.   Save humanity 14:05  |  petr vojta 22/06/08
      63.   No 3 ShmuelShachor 14:07  |  sohel saheen 22/06/08
      64.   If Israel really intended to attack Iran 14:14  |  Yonatan 22/06/08
      65.   # 54 yaheskel 14:33  |  Axel 22/06/08
      66.   Petr Vojta #62 14:43  |  Brod 22/06/08
      67.   Fortuna: Silence is Golden 14:46  |  Ronnie Wolman 22/06/08
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