Subscribe to Print Edition | Tue., June 24, 2008 Sivan 21, 5768 | | Israel Time: 08:02 (EST+7) web haaretz.com   Back to Homepage Rosner's Domain Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Car Rental Books Peres Conference Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File

Last update - 11:01 22/06/2008 ANALYSIS / An Israeli strike on Iran is still on the agenda By Amos Harel Tags: Iran, IDF, Israel, nuclear Even though the New York Times story on June 19 about a large-scale air force exercise in the eastern Mediterranean was received from a source in Washington, not Jerusalem, it seems to have been in line with Israel's aims. Unlike the storm that the threats of Transport Minister Shaul Mofaz stirred two weeks ago, the report that the Israel Air Force (IAF) carried out a large scale exercise as part of its preparation for a scenario requiring the targetting of Iran's nuclear facilities, the message was received clearly. According to the senior Pentagon official quoted in the New York Times report "they [the Israelis] wanted us to know, they wanted the Europeans to know, and they wanted the Iranians to know." There is little new in the fact that the IAF is preparing for the Iranian challenge. About six months ago, Channel 2 reported a similar exercise covering a radius that an operation against Iran would require. At the time the report received little attention, but in view of the price of crude oil, every report of this sort makes the tickers jump. Moreover, the IDF spokesman did not deny Friday's report. Advertisement If one followed the series of interviews that outgoing IAF chief Major General Eliezer Shkedi offered more than a month ago, the trend was obvious. Shkedi emphasized the force's readiness for "any challenge" and called on the media not to drop their daily focus on the Iranian threat. The former air force chief was without doubt the hawk at the General Staff in anything to do with dealing with Iran, but one must not forget that he was also the person assigned the task of preparing the operational planning. The defense establishment assessment as of June 2008 is that in 1.5 to two years Iran will cross the technological threshold enabling Tehran to develop nuclear weapons. Contrary to last December's U.S. National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran, Israel's assessment is that Tehran has not ceased its nuclear weapons program. There is still the possibility of an American attack on Iran, but in light of the NIE report that is not highly likely. The U.S. position may change dramatically if they have an undisputed 'smoking gun' regarding Tehran's intentions. However, there is another question that needs to be raised: What are the IAF capabilities in carrying out the kind of operation necessary against Iran's nuclear installations, its professionalism notwithstanding? Western military experts are divided over its ability to target the dispersed Iranian nuclear infrastructure, in dozens of installations, some buried deep underground. But Israel's effort would not be to completely destroy Iran's nuclear complex - blocking its progress for a period of time may be a significant achievement in itself. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert vowed during his passover interviews that Iran will not turn nuclear. This was not a random, thoughtless slip of the tongue. If in Jerusalem they were seriously thinking that it is necessary to get used to a nuclear balance of terror, we would have heard them lauding the rational regime that sits in Tehran. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Justice for Jews London summit focuses on plight of Jewish refugees from Arab states. No place like home Poll: 77% of Israeli Arabs would rather live in Israel than in any other country.   1.   INDONESIA READY 10:43  |  indrajaya 22/06/08   2.   Things extinguished. 11:25  |  Guy From NYC 22/06/08   3.   JEWS READY 11:35  |  Frank 22/06/08   4.   Attack Iran? Israel is not that stupid (is it?) 12:04  |  Natallie Durson 22/06/08   5.   threats are acts of war 12:07  |  ClearCut 22/06/08   6.   It`s enough 12:10  |  Hector 22/06/08   7.   CLEARCUT the4n your friends in IRAN have been at war with Israel 12:33  |  PETER SM 22/06/08   8.   DURSON What else has IRAN got to sell besides oil? 12:51  |  PETER SM 22/06/08   9.   Get the theocratic agressive tyrants out of Teheran! 13:32  |  Arthur 22/06/08   10.   For Frank # 3 14:20  |  Clickfool 22/06/08   11.   No 5 Clearcut 14:24  |  sohel saheen 22/06/08   12.   Clickfool ( you`re right), we DO know better 14:32  |  M. David 22/06/08   13.   For Peter SM # 8 14:40  |  Clickfool 22/06/08   14.   #8 Peter SM 14:51  |  Chris Linthwaite 22/06/08   15.   #5 Exactly so, clearcut. 14:54  |  Johnboy 22/06/08   16.   #9 Arthur of Nantes 14:55  |  Chris Linthwaite 22/06/08   17.   LINTHWAITE.CONFUSED it is NOT the peaceful use of nuclear energy 15:28  |  PETER SM 22/06/08   18.   Indrajaya 1 - Indonesia voted as the most corrupt country in Asia 15:47  |  ChanahS 22/06/08   19.   #14 Chris Linthwaite 16:08  |  Dan 22/06/08   20.   #17 Peter SM 16:08  |  Chris Linthwaite 22/06/08   21.   Come on Isreal!!! 16:23  |  Persian Hero 22/06/08   22.   CFOOL Can`t read? "BESIDES" as in other than 16:31  |  PETER SM 22/06/08   23.   israeli preparing for another aggression 16:41  |  Terry 22/06/08   24.   #17 PETER SM can`t read what he posts 16:45  |  Johnboy 22/06/08   25.   TO ATTACK A SOVEREIGN NATION OF UN? OH, GOD 16:55  |  indrajaya 22/06/08   26.   #4 Israel is certaily smarter than Natalie Durson 17:00  |  ScotGuy 22/06/08   27.   24 - You got it wrong Johnboy 17:12  |  ScotGuy 22/06/08   28.   Israel strike on Iran 18:13  |  Ramachandran Nair 22/06/08   29.   analysis 18:17  |  azad 22/06/08   30.   Benefits vs. Costs 19:08  |  Mark Lincoln 22/06/08   31.   #23 Words mean something 19:28  |  DesMnsDave 22/06/08   32.   Human life more important than oil (reply to Ramachandran Nair) 01:24  |  Realist 23/06/08   33.   MAKE UP YOUR DOUBLE MIND MERT;STAGGERING LIKE A DRUNK IN ALL YOUR 04:09  |  glenna 23/06/08   34.   benefits vs costs 04:32  |  Ehud 23/06/08   35.   Mark Lincoln, tiresome pedant 04:32  |  Stephen in New York 23/06/08   36.   Bashers-Israel doesn`t need your permission 04:43  |  Stephen in New York 23/06/08   37.   fool 06:49  |  pete 23/06/08   38.   No other option 10:42  |  Holocaust survivor 23/06/08   39.   Will America and Israel fly together? Will Great Brittin join? 15:31  |  The French? 23/06/08   40.   #27 wrong on all counts, ScotGuy 15:47  |  Johnboy 23/06/08   41.   Self defence is no offence 17:40  |  Realist 23/06/08   42.   No Other Choice 18:35  |  Ground Zero 23/06/08   43.   Too much noise for nothing 20:41  |  Arfan 23/06/08   44.   goodbye, immoral theocrat criminals. boom. 21:19  |  frenz 23/06/08   45.   #41 Fer crying out loud! 01:29  |  Johnboy 24/06/08

Read & React Shmuel Rosner: Why do U.S. non-Jews back Israel? Responses: 300 IDF: Israel may declare two soldiers captured by Hezbollah 'killed in action' Responses: 119 Amir Oren: Israel may conclude that it's time to hit Iran by autumn Responses: 162 Sarkozy: There won't be Middle East peace without Syria talks Responses: 62 Haaretz.com TV: East J'lem Arabs pay taxes, lack running water Responses: 44 Rosner's Domain New Guest: Israel should've continued blockade of Gaza The meaning of anti-Americanism in the Arab world (WTR) Why do non-Jewish Americans support Israel? Poll: exchange deal with Hezbollah, good or bad? Will we see a record number of Jewish lawmakers? (2) More Headlines 07:15 IDF: Israel may declare two soldiers captured by Hezbollah killed in action 07:29 High Court rejects Shalit family bid to keep Gaza crossings shut 08:02 IDF forces kill two Palestinian militants in the West Bank 07:30 Israel keeps tabs on French nuclear deals with Arab world 04:16 Jewish Agency launches plan to attract Western hi-tech engineers 05:39 Labor Party to support disbanding the Knesset 04:15 Families of abducted soldiers tell Olmert, Barak: We've waited enough 06:39 Beijing 2008 / Israel sending 38 athletes to Olympics 05:20 Israelis never excelled as mercenaries 02:44 U.S. weighs opening interest section in Tehran 01:13 McCain disavows aide comment that terror attack would help GOP Previous Editions Select Day 23 jun 22 jun 20 jun 19 jun 18 jun 17 jun 16 jun 15 jun 13 jun 12 jun 11 jun 10 jun

Special Offers Advertisement Holyland Park Jerusalem Apartment Tower World Class Luxury In the heart of Tel-Aviv The Meier on Rothschild tower Jerusalem of Gold Luxury apartments in Jerusalem's finest location Your vacation starts here Israel Travel Center Guaranteed Lowest Rates Free Hebrew Private Lesson www.iStudyHebrew.com Pardes Institute Summer Sessions http://www.pardes.org.il/ Free the Palestinians from: Corrupt Kleptocracy, Tyrannical Theocracy, Abysmal Anarchy Fattal Hotel Chain Perfectly located hotels on best resorts of Israel. ISRAEL BONDS Build Israel Israel bonds - a multi-purpose way to celebrate Israel's 60th Eldan Rent a Car Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on all online reservations Junkyard Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt