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Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. (AP)
Last update - 12:23 18/06/2008
ANALYSIS / Cease-fire deal means Hamas is calling the shots
By Zvi Bar'el, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Israel, cease-fire, Hamas 

The main points of a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas grant the Islamic organization a political and diplomatic achievement that will also give it a lever in its reconciliation talks with Fatah, which are slated to begin at the end of this week.

According to the Egyptian-mediated proposal, Israel will no longer be able to monitor the Rafah crossing, on the Gaza-Egypt border, once it reopens, and a deal to free kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit will be discussed separately from the truce, as Hamas wanted.

Israel will receive quiet in the south, along with an Egyptian pledge to monitor the border closely, but Hamas will be the main party in control of the Rafah crossing. Palestinian Authority officials and European observers will be present, but both will have limited authority.
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Moreover, the truce gives Hamas, rather than PA President Mahmoud Abbas, the power to force a cease-fire in the West Bank: If quiet is maintained in the south, Israel will have to extend the truce to the West Bank in another six months.

In theory, the reopening of Rafah depends on progress in the Shalit deal. But Egyptian officials insisted yesterday that Rafah's opening is independent of the Shalit swap, and neither is conditional upon the other, since freeing Shalit involves an additional element: Israel's agreement to release a large number of Palestinian prisoners. Thus here, too, Israel will not be able to point to any achievement.

Hamas has an interest in the cease-fire, and not just in order to end Israel's blockade of the Gaza Strip. Later this week, Abbas is expected to make his first visit to Gaza since Hamas seized control of the Strip last year, in an effort to negotiate a reconciliation between his Fatah party and Hamas. He announced this initiative about two weeks ago, and it is being supported by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab
Emirates. But now, Abbas will find himself facing a politically strengthened Hamas, one that has seemingly forced Israel to cave in.

The road to a Hamas-Fatah reconciliation remains long, especially in light of Abbas' demand that Hamas restore the situation in Gaza to what it was before June 14, 2007. But if the process succeeds, it is likely to end in new presidential and parliamentary elections, and Hamas would like to enter those races with maximum political capital. This capital would increase if, at the end of the cease-fire's six-month trial period, Hamas is able to force Israel to declare a truce in the West Bank as well. It would thereby have demonstrated effective security control over both parts of Palestine.

To do this, Hamas will need to tighten its control over smaller Palestinian factions, which are liable to threaten its claim to exclusive control over the use of force. But so far, these organizations have supported Hamas in its cease-fire bid. Thus Hamas has also succeeded in using the truce to create an internal political front - and even more
importantly, to gain the Arab world's recognition of its status.

Related articles:
  • Hamas, Egypt back Gaza truce, Israel yet to confirm deal
  • Barak: It is too early to declare calm in Gaza
  • Hamas: Gaza truce deal with Israel is in sight
  • Report: Israel won't condition Gaza cease-fire on Gilad Shalit's release

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      1.   SO CALLED CEASEFIRE = OLMERT SURRENDERS TO TERROR 03:14  |  Robert Schwartz 18/06/08
      2.   Is this another 1701 resolution or EU Blood money 03:26  |  Jonathan 18/06/08
      3.   Metumtamim & shfanim 03:38  |  Free Gilad Shalit 18/06/08
      4.   I doubt we will see Gilad anytime soon, but who knows? 03:45  |  POP 18/06/08
      5.   #4 POP 05:13  |  POP`S KEEPER 18/06/08
      6.   WHEN HAS HAMAS EVER NOT BEEN IN CHARGE SINCE THEY GIVEN PIECE ... 06:34  |  glenna 18/06/08
      7.   Conclusions 07:09  |  sh 18/06/08
      8.   Who is the winner? 07:18  |  Otto Rand 18/06/08
      9.   THIS IS A BAD DEAL FOR ISRAEL 07:20  |  Shepherd 18/06/08
      10.   Every day the news for Israel gets worst under Olmert 07:25  |  Kipperraes 18/06/08
      11.   You do not talk to terrorists, you fight and defeat them. 07:43  |  Jean Van Daem 18/06/08
      12.   Victory of the Qassams and Grads over IL 07:47  |  Nora 18/06/08
      13.   Better late than never 07:50  |  Natallie Durson 18/06/08
      14.   Incorrect Haaretz Analysis 07:51  |  Edifice 18/06/08
      15.   Meshal, sos un hijo de puta 08:01  |  Ivan 18/06/08
      16.   The Sky will NOT Fall 08:36  |  Mark of Lewiston 18/06/08
      17.   The government has misled the people of Israel 08:39  |  Rafi 18/06/08
      18.   And Ehud Barak expects to win elections? 09:05  |  Rick & TC 18/06/08
      19.   deal from hell 09:24  |  Shmuelshachor 18/06/08
      20.   Betraying Abbas, bending to Hamas 09:38  |  alain 18/06/08
      21.   Cease-fire? 09:49  |  Ros 18/06/08
      22.   11 Jean Van Daem - A Mistake 09:50  |  Mark of Lewiston 18/06/08
      23.   REMINDER 09:54  |  Mark of Lewiston 18/06/08
      24.   very bad idea, will bring down goverement. 10:16  |  Jo 18/06/08
      25.   A LOUD AND CLEAR SIGN OF WINNING 10:18  |  indrajaya 18/06/08
      26.   The lesson Hamas has taught Abbas 10:21  |  Clickfool 18/06/08
      27.   Cease-fire deal means Iran is in charge , 10:21  |  Joseph.E 18/06/08
      28.   CEASE FIRE DEAL MEANS, 10:27  |  Robert 18/06/08
      29.   Oh, the wailing from Talkback Zionists 10:28  |  Clickfool 18/06/08
      30.   Excellent analysis. 11:29  |  sandra chitayat 18/06/08
      31.   # 30, SANDRA CHITAYAT 12:13  |  indrajaya 18/06/08
      32.   Olmert is a traitor - No Shalit no truce 12:16  |  Daniel 18/06/08
      33.   clickfool we wear our zionism as a badge of honour 12:17  |  yirmi 18/06/08
      34.   #8, Otto Rand, "who is the winner?" 12:40  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 18/06/08
      35.   Without Shalit, No Deal.. 12:51  |  a 18/06/08
      36.   Ivan...que boquita 12:53  |  the cotur dolobu 18/06/08
      37.   Olmert,Livni give Hamas legitimacy for free 13:02  |  Jonathan S 18/06/08
      38.   Question for John Wayne Yirmi # 33 13:05  |  Clickfool 18/06/08
      39.   clickfool soldiers behave as soldiers 13:17  |  yirmi 18/06/08
      40.   clickfool and the gulf soldiers 13:22  |  yirmi 18/06/08
      41.   clickfool did i mention the british paratroopers 13:24  |  yirmi 18/06/08
      42.   Natallie, why aren`t you in mourning? 13:33  |  Aphemia 18/06/08
      43.   Olmert and Barak have endangered Israel 13:34  |  Rafael 18/06/08
      44.   The worst deal Israel has ever done other than Oslo 14:11  |  r 18/06/08
      45.   Thank you, Bush Administration 14:38  |  Isadora 18/06/08
      46.   A mistake to mention the Falklands War, Yirmi # 39 14:39  |  Clickfool 18/06/08
      47.   I notice you ducked the question, John Wayne Yirmi # 40 14:41  |  Clickfool 18/06/08
      48.   cease fire deal 14:47  |  palestinean dr 18/06/08
      49.   #47 Clickfool don`t bother 14:59  |  Paul Wood 18/06/08
      50.   No doubt Olmert is the worst PM in Israeli history 15:14  |  McQueen 18/06/08
      51.   Free Shalit First, Invade Gaza Second 15:18  |  Baruch Gold 18/06/08
      52.   What else has Olmert sought? 15:20  |  Mark Lincoln 18/06/08
      53.   What else has Olmert sought? 15:20  |  Mark Lincoln 18/06/08
      54.   For Mark Lincoln # 52 15:54  |  Clickfool 18/06/08
      55.   Israel, not foes, riding high 15:57  |  Ed 18/06/08
      56.   Israel can break it 15:58  |  Truth 18/06/08
      57.   yirmi and bluster 16:01  |  Truth 18/06/08
      58.   POP How do you know that?Care to give your sources 16:03  |  PETER SM 18/06/08
      59.   Palestenean dr 16:04  |  Ed 18/06/08
      60.   The glass is half full........I am optimistic 16:09  |  Avrum 18/06/08
      61.   The glass is half full........I am optimistic 16:09  |  Avrum 18/06/08
      62.   Clickfool 16:12  |  American in NY 18/06/08
      63.   clickfool i do not know what engagement you refer to 16:21  |  yirmi 18/06/08
      64.   Cease-fire means more fire to come 16:37  |  Tali 18/06/08
      65.   a DISASTER 17:16  |  Barry Small 18/06/08
      66.   Its clear to me that?. 17:42  |  Stranger 18/06/08
      67.   WHAT’s INIT FOR YOU ISRAEL? WHAT HAPPENED TO PRECONDITIONS? 18:05  |  Rachel in USA 18/06/08
      68.   For Rachel # 67 18:18  |  Clickfool 18/06/08
      69.   Who wins? 18:42  |  Jeremy 18/06/08
      70.   Aphemia 18:44  |  Natallie Durson 18/06/08
      71.   Iran is Calling the Shots 18:50  |  isratinian 18/06/08
      72.   Isadora. . . typical Bush hater liberal 19:26  |  ed 18/06/08
      73.   The IDF Will Not Permit A Cease-Fire 19:42  |  chet 18/06/08
      74.   to Clickfool #47 19:47  |  Argentinian 18/06/08
      75.   clickfool "you avoided the question" 19:55  |  yirmi 18/06/08
      76.   Why Olmert is Hated and must go ? Why ? 20:03  |  Akram Zekaria 18/06/08
      77.   For Argentinian, on Sweet Rockall # 74 20:03  |  Clickfool 18/06/08
      78.   realisation dawns... 20:04  |  ravi 18/06/08
      79.   For Yirmi on Enoch Powell # 75 20:09  |  Clickfool 18/06/08
      80.   is there any doubt anymore that olmert works for the enemy? 20:33  |  chaim 18/06/08
      81.   more groundwork prior to annihilation of iran 20:45  |  frenz 18/06/08
      82.   #70 Natallie -not bubbling with optimism 20:52  |  Aphemia 18/06/08
      83.   This Administration is Brain dead 20:52  |  Irv 18/06/08
      84.   Jeremy.... 21:02  |  Ibrahim 18/06/08
      85.   Does Olmert make the office death pool? 21:05  |  Ibrahim 18/06/08
      86.   How long before Hamas violates ceasefire? 21:19  |  Scharker Yid 18/06/08
      87.   I am `optimistic` too Avrum 21:29  |  Mark Lincoln 18/06/08
      88.   "Peace in our time..." - Neville Chamberlain 23:52  |  pathetic PM 18/06/08
      89.   Mark Lincoln bemoans the advent of HAMAS 00:31  |  Jacob Blues 19/06/08
      90.   To Egyptians 01:04  |  Aziz 19/06/08
      91.   Avrum #61: what`s that in your glass, Avrum? 01:23  |  ivo 19/06/08
      92.   #9 Shepherd 01:39  |  ballistic 19/06/08
      93.   #26 Clickfool. "Israel`s Uncle Tom and head-nodders... 01:40  |  Maureen Ann 19/06/08
      94.   #20 Alain 01:45  |  ballistic 19/06/08
      95.   Just how jaded does the journalism get? 01:47  |  Sean 19/06/08
      96.   #26 Okay Clickfool 01:48  |  ballistic 19/06/08
      97.   #29 Ouch, more salt, Clickfool? 01:51  |  ballistic 19/06/08
      98.   #65 Say Barry Small 02:00  |  ballistic 19/06/08
      99.   #67 Say Rachel 02:04  |  ballistic 19/06/08
      100.   Who wins office pool re first cease-fire violation? 03:14  |  leo 19/06/08
      101.   #26 Clickie, Everybody respect violence. 03:42  |  jarda 19/06/08
      102.   Sad state of affairs 06:31  |  Nemesis 19/06/08
      103.   Palestinians , israelis and the world are the real winner 07:27  |  bashar hassan 19/06/08
      104.   # 4 to pop re: gilad 07:59  |  eric 19/06/08
      105.   there IS one way for israel to the win the next play 08:34  |  eric 19/06/08
      106.   no peace 11:50  |  zionist 19/06/08
      107.   96# Billistic. It is rather comical indeed ! 06:00  |  Akram Zekaria 20/06/08
      108.   #107 Akram 01:17  |  ballistic 21/06/08
      109.   108# ballistic You must be blind. Re-read my post 107! 23:49  |  Akram Zekaria 21/06/08
      110.   #109 Akram, you are confused, as usual 17:57  |  ballistic 23/06/08
      111.   110# Ballistic.So your sources of information about the Talmud 01:07  |  Akram Zekaria 24/06/08
      112.   #111 Akram 17:45  |  ballistic 24/06/08
      113.   112# ballistic 16:56  |  Akram Zekaria 25/06/08
      114.   #113 Akram 22:45  |  ballistic 25/06/08
      115.   114# ballistic : Who will rule in th nighmare called Palestine ? 04:10  |  Akram Zekaria 26/06/08
      116.   #115 Golly Akram 02:08  |  ballistic 27/06/08
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