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A banner showing abducted IDF soldiers Shalit, Goldwasser and Regev at Kibbutz Zarit last year. (AP) Last update - 11:52 16/06/2008 ANALYSIS / Hezbollah's price to return soldiers is not impossibly high By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent Tags: Gilad Shalit, Israel, Hamas  Out of the plethora of diplomatic-security issues keeping Prime Minister Ehud Olmert busy these days, the discussions on the freeing of the two IDF soldiers held by Hezbollah appear to be the most promising. The price being demanded for the the return of Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser is not impossibly high, and the chances that the deal can be done are reasonable. What is no less important, is that a deal could be struck in a relatively short period of time, perhaps to the point of bringing to an "end" the Lebanese affair at a date near the second anniversary of the rushed decision to go to war. As his cabinet ceased to function, and while he waits for the crucial cross-examination of Morris Talansky in court next month, bringing home the two soldiers kidnapped by Hezbollah appears to be a goal that can be achieved, from Olmert's point of view. The same cannot be said right now about a deal with Hamas for Gilad Shalit, or about the renewed talks with Syria, and certainly not about a final-status agreement with the Palestinian Authority. The parameters of the Goldwasser-Regev deal were laid out in the media a month ago: the release of Nassim Nasar, a Lebanese man convicted of espionage, after he served out his sentence (this took place on June 1); the return of the four Hezbollah men captured during the Second Lebanon War; and the release of the Nahariya killer, Samir Kuntar. Even though it is not said explicitly or officially, it is easy to understand that this price is relatively low, and that both sides recognize that it is not a deal that involves the freeing of living soldiers in exchange for the six Lebanese. The Achilles heel of the deal is Kuntar, whom Israel insisted on keeping in prison as a bargaining chip for information on the fate of the missing navigator Ron Arad - what used to be referred to as the second part of the 2004 deal that led to the release of Elhanan Tennenbaum. Advertisement Yedioth Aharonoth reported Saturday that Olmert will meet Monday with the family of Ron Arad to discuss with them his thinking about the deal that is developing - which would be tantamount to Israel giving up on resolving the Arad mystery. The leak appears to be an attempt to prepare public opinion ahead of a deal that would include Kuntar's release. However, it seems that at the PM's Bureau they forgot to coordinate the details with the family, which learned about the meeting with Olmert through the article in Yedioth. In any case, the cost in public opinion will not be low: The Arad family will reiterate its argument that Ron was abandoned by the state - but this is a price that Olmert seems willing to pay. Approval of the deal by the cabinet would follow, but would still be followed by the need to iron out details: how the exchange will take place, where (very likely that it will be in Germany - which has mediated the deal), and if necessary, the process of identifying the bodies. In the case of Tennenbaum, nearly two and a half months passed between the cabinet vote and the actual exchange. Compared to Goldwasser-Regev, the situation with regard to a possible release of Gilad Shalit is extremely complicated. The price is known: 450 Palestinian prisoners. But Hamas insists on including in its wish list many murderers, including those who were involved in large suicide bombings beginning in the mid-1990s. Their release will stir significant public debate, political confrontations and protests that will include bereaved parents and those who were wounded in these attacks. Olmert seems to have been capable of undertaking such steps as recently as two to three months ago. Now, with the story of the cash envelopes dogging him, it will be much more difficult. Ariel Sharon, whose political position was much more stable, needed seven long hours to convince the cabinet to approve the Tannenbaum deal - and he won that vote by only a single vote. Olmert may often be described as a political magician, but even for him, this will be an enormous challenge. It is the same political paralysis that is to a large extent dictating Israel's slow roll toward a tahadiyeh, a cease-fire with Hamas. Defense Minister Ehud Barak no longer hides his opposition to a large-scale military operation in the Gaza Strip. There is no longer effective coordination between him and Olmert (it ended in late May, the minute Barak called on the PM to step down). Meanwhile, senior Kadima and Labor figures bide their time while they exchange blows. Barak argued that the planned primary in Kadima is holding back a truce with Hamas. Vice Premier Haim Ramon (and, by extension also Olmert), blamed Barak with foiling an offensive in the Strip. Throwing the issue of Shalit into the melee is more figurative than practical, and in any case, it's clear that the Egyptian promise to push an exchange through, as the tahadiyeh goes in effect, was highly conditional. Barring any major last-minute change, a cease-fire will go into effect in the near future, but the Shalit situation will remain unresolved. It may be that the tahadiyeh is already here: The past two days along the border with the Strip have been the calmest in a long while. Related articles: Lebanon terrorist's lawyer: No word to us on imminent release Reservists: If we're captured, don't negotiate for our bodies Report: Hezbollah willing to negotiate over Shaba Farms Bookmark to del.icio.us   Religious pressure Tel Aviv supermarket chain agrees gradual Shabbat closure. Overgenerous diplomacy UN envoy: Israel has given Syria a 'huge gift' for free.   1.   Please stop those ZigZag, speak to an officla Gov, stop hitting 04:47  |  Simon Mohammed 16/06/08   2.   Amos Harel 04:52  |  Sabashimon 16/06/08   3.   For bodies Israel should pay with bodies, not Kuntar!!!! 06:40  |  Shalom 16/06/08   4.   Israel knows its situation 07:00  |  Sami 16/06/08   5.   How to free the captives 07:14  |  Moshe 16/06/08   6.   we would not be getting Regev and Goldwasser 08:05  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 16/06/08   7.   Hezbollah first 08:44  |  Gerald Zang 16/06/08   8.   #5 How to free the captives 08:49  |  Gerald Zang 16/06/08   9.   SAMI Army of Allah selling body parts,murdered Israeli POW`s 09:42  |  PETER SM 16/06/08   10.   Hizbullah rules... 10:31  |  Marwan 16/06/08   11.   A great deal indeed 10:42  |  Leon Rosgarten 16/06/08   12.   Are they still alive? 11:28  |  sandra chitayat 16/06/08   13.   I don`t understand why many talkbackers say our soldiers are dead 12:11  |  S 16/06/08   14.   Response to #11 13:04  |  Nili 16/06/08   15.   To # 6 Cipora Julianna Kohn - Regev and Goldwasser.... 13:10  |  Dagma 16/06/08   16.   Dead or alive 13:32  |  Shlomo from Tel-Aviv 16/06/08   17.   I hope the Israeli captives arer alive 14:24  |  Yonatan 16/06/08   18.   Kuntar`s Crime is A Horrible Crime 15:06  |  Khalil 16/06/08   19.   Marwan you`re shouting so loudly but you still tell lies 15:22  |  x-ray 16/06/08   20.   To Shlomo from Tel Aviv - Despicable Acts 16:36  |  Natasha 16/06/08   21.   To Shlomo from Tel Aviv - Despicable Acts 16:36  |  Natasha 16/06/08   22.   Are Olmert?s self saving acts are balance to State of Israel need 16:46  |  H.H.M. 16/06/08   23.   Nili # 14. 17:15  |  David Nigel Braham 16/06/08   24.   S & Dagma 19:58  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 16/06/08   25.   Leon Rosgarten in Ramat Aviv 20:32  |  Connie 16/06/08   26.   #25, Connie 23:36  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 16/06/08   27.   Hezbollah`s price 08:26  |  J. Perlman 18/06/08

Read & React Report: Israel approves Gaza Strip cease-fire deal Responses: 32 M. Arens: Olmert dead wrong for saying next U.S. President won't be as friendly as Bush Send response Syrian official: Peace with Israel will create harmonious Mideast Responses: 9 Editorial: Law to ban Arab MKs from visiting enemy states is an insulting PR ploy Send response Uzi Benziman: Despite high price, Hezbollah deal for kidnapped troops is a necessity Send response More Headlines 09:01 Report: Israel approves Gaza Strip cease-fire deal 08:02 Meshal: Any Israeli violation of deal would not go unanswered 07:23 ANALYSIS / Cease-fire deal means Hamas is in charge 07:57 U.S. pushes for Israel-Lebanon peace talks, deal on Shaba 08:42 Syrian official: Peace with Israel will create harmonious Mideast 08:48 Civil Administration officials indicted in West Bank land steal 07:16 Holocaust survivors from former USSR denied reparations 07:18 ElBaradei: Syria lacks skills, fuel for nuclear facility 07:20 Czech leader pledges to advance EU-Israel relations 05:23 New detection tool pinpoints virus behind cervical cancer 06:16 Katsav could face civil suits over sexual assault charges 23:27 Sex and the Old City / Star of hit TV show Kristin Davis makes first visit to Jerusalem 02:56 Will Olmert and Assad be sitting together at the same table? Previous Editions Select Day 17 jun 16 jun 15 jun 13 jun 12 jun 11 jun 10 jun 09 jun 08 jun 06 jun 05 jun 04 jun

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