Subscribe to Print Edition | Thu., June 19, 2008 Sivan 16, 5768 | | Israel Time: 22:31 (EST+7) web haaretz.com   Back to Homepage Rosner's Domain Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Car Rental Books Peres Conference Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File

Who's in favor of dissolving the Knesset? By Yossi Verter Tags: knesset At first glance, the Knesset appears to relish the prospect of dissolving. Right away, immediately. But in the back rooms, in hallway conversations, the MKs reveal they don't know what to think. According to the calendar, they should have another 28 months on the job, but these are now likely to be cruelly shrunk to a mere six months (give or take). Most of them won't be back in the Knesset, and those who do return will have gone through an exhausting, nerve-racking and occasionally humiliating process of primaries or committee elections. Take, for instance, a particular MK from the National Union-National Religious Party. There is no party more combative when it comes to fighting the government or the prime minister, but this week this MK went up to a Kadima minister and begged him to do everything he could to prevent early elections. "I asked for a meeting with [Shas spiritual leader] Rabbi Ovadia [Yosef], to try to convince him to change his mind," the MK told the surprised minister. At least eight of the 10 Arab MKs in the opposition are not interested in elections. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's associates have spoken to most of them, and convinced them it's not worth their while to rush into things and bring Likud chairman Benjamin Netanyahu and the right wing to power once again. The Pensioners also realize that none of them will be returning to the Knesset. Even Shas doesn't want elections, and neither does the Labor Party - not to mention Kadima. Nonetheless, the Knesset will be dissolved and the elections will be moved up. There's a dynamic at work, and there are processes underway. Advertisement After previous investigations that didn't turn up a thing, Winograd I and Winograd II, along came the affair of Morris Talansky and the envelopes of cash. And now, once again, Netanyhu is on the threshold of power. A Kadima minister observed him in the Knesset cafeteria this week and muttered: "When that man returns to the government, at least they won't blame us. Ehud Barak will be blamed. By his party and by the Israeli public. Barak will be the only one responsible, the single one, for everything that happens here in the next four years. We'll make sure they won't let him forget that." Similar statements can also be heard within Labor. One of the party's leaders, who has never been suspected of hostility toward Barak, also blamed the defense minister for the "trap" he said the party is in. "What will we get from elections now?" the Laborite asked. "Barak will bring us down to 12 seats. This man has led us all into a trap. Adler schooled him." Political folklore considers Reuven Adler - Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni's adviser, publicist and Barak's neighbor in his Tel Aviv apartment building - to be the person who advised Barak to issue an ultimatum to Kadima by threatening that Labor would quit the government unless Kadima acted to hold early elections. The senior Labor member went on to say that Barak backed himself into a corner and didn't know how to get out. "He's the most important statesman, the most important defense person, and the worst politician," the Laborite said. "If Olmert goes and Tzipi Livni is elected and tries to form a government, I will tell him, 'Join. Join fast, in the hope that the public will realize who she is and return to us.' Next to her, Barak will stick out, he will run the show. If he collapses then, too, then it really will be a waste. The loathing between the public and Barak is built in. Years will pass until it disappears. Until he is able to gain reelection as prime minister. Even if he were to resign today and say, 'I don't want to have anything to do with Olmert,' that wouldn't help him. And despite everything people think about Olmert, I say that if it hadn't been for the investigations, and despite the Second Lebanon War, he would have managed to recover and get 30 seats. You can't take that from him, he's an excellent prime minister." Since Barak issued his ultimatum, Olmert has scored a minor victory. The Prime Minister's Office announced this week that Olmert had "ordered" Tzachi Hanegbi and Eli Aflalo "to begin discussions in anticipation of developing recommendations concerning preparations for primaries," a move that put Barak under a bit of pressure. On the one hand, Olmert's announcement is just what Barak asked for: organization within Kadima for Olmert's replacement. On the other hand, who knows when the Kadima primary will take place or what will happen when a new chairman is elected. Will Olmert resign immediately? After all, the basis for Barak's ultimatum was that Olmert is not capable of running affairs of state when he is up to his eyeballs in personal crises. And there's also another issue: You can't demand that any party organize an internal election within a month. To complicate matters further, it's perfectly clear that Olmert is stalling, but he's doing it so slyly that it's hard to complain about it. This week, Barak was forced to clarify once more that "as things appear at the moment, we will sign on to the proposal to disperse the Knesset on the 25th of the month." "It's very nice that Olmert gave the green light for primaries," said Labor Party secretary general Eitan Cabel, "but in my experience as a paratrooper, I know that sometimes you stand for a long time at the door of the plane, the green light is lit, and in the end you don't jump." It's happening to Barak once again. Instead of Olmert following the path that Barak set for him, the defense minister is finding himself trying to get out of the path that Olmert lay down for him. At a press conference Barak convened a day after Morris Talansky, the U.S. businessman suspected of giving Olmert hundreds of thousands of dollars, told a Jerusalem courtroom about his relationship with Olmert, Barak said Olmert could not continue, that he must go on leave, declare his incapacity to serve, or resign. And if not, Kadima must replace him, or else early elections will be held. Barak made a very similar statement during the internal Labor Party chairmanship election, at Kibbutz Sdot Yam a year ago, in response to the first Winograd report on the Second Lebanon War. Israeli politics is not built for such complex structures. It needs something simpler. The Barak of old knew how to deal with it. In the 1999 election, he managed to get Yitzhak Mordechai to withdraw his candidacy for the premiership without saying a word. And after Barak was elected, he announced he would negotiate with Shas only after its chairman, Aryeh Deri, resigned. Just like that, clear and simple. The Barak of 2007-08 is not like the 1998-99 model. As he has aged, he has lost that killer instinct. The trauma of his 2001 defeat may have burdened him with excess caution. As a consequence, everyone is angry with him. Those who want to topple Olmert think Barak doesn't really intend to do so. And those who don't want early elections are upset because Barak didn't wait for Talansky's cross-examination, since he seems to be in a hurry, but it's not clear where. Matan Vilnai, Barak's deputy at the Defense Ministry, on whose behalf Barak ousted Ephraim Sneh, is among those angry with the Labor leader. I will vote against early elections, Vilnai said in private this week. I remember November 2002, he said, when Benjamin Ben-Eliezer quit the Sharon government. We were smart and we were right, but we got struck by such a blow that we never recovered. Anyone who can see what goes on and who feels the slightest sense of responsibility, knows that elections are not good for us, he concluded. A meaningless ritual In talks conducted by Netanyahu's people, Silvan Shalom and Gideon Sa'ar, ahead of the vote on dissolving the Knesset on June 25, the following question arose: What if Olmert were to dismiss the Labor and Shas ministers for supporting the Knesset's dissolution? In such a scenario, it's clear that the following week, the Knesset would vote in favor of a no-confidence motion in the government, which would pass by a large majority. According to the law, two days after the government collapses, the president must assign the task of forming a new government to the MK whose name appears on the no-confidence motion as the candidate for forming that government. A no-confidence motion cannot be submitted without adding the name of a candidate for the premiership. So far this has been a meaningless ritual; every party that submitted a no-confidence motion, a weekly routine, would put in the name of the party leader as the candidate. But as soon as the chances of success increase, there must be general agreement as to the person to whom the keys to forming the next government will be given. Not so that the candidate will succeed - after all, the entire point is to hold an election - but so that his failure will be assured. The law states that if the candidate has not formed a government within 42 days, the Knesset disperses. Shalom and Sa'ar asked their interlocutors to think of a name. Certainly not Netanyahu. Barak is not an MK. Ben-Eliezer may yet be able to form a government. Livni? Nope. The name that was chosen was MK Rabbi Yaakov Litzman from United Torah Judaism. A friendly Jew, well-liked, who wants nothing but to return to his yeshiva or to his position as chairman of the Knesset Finance Committee, whichever comes first. The agreement was thus: If they went ahead with no-confidence, Litzman would be the candidate agreed upon by the right and the left, the secular and the ultra-Orthodox, the Arabs and the Jews. He would be summoned to President Shimon Peres, accept the task of forming a government, and return to the president after a day or two of "consultations" to say that he had failed. Peres would inform the Knesset speaker and the elections would be moved up, set to take place within 90 days. That is the letter of the law. In the meantime, the no-confidence scenario has become irrelevant, since Olmert has decided not to dismiss any of the cabinet ministers who support dissolving the Knesset. But the very thought of Rabbi Yankele Litzman as a prime ministerial candidate is not unattractive. Would the international media get it, or would the world be flooded with shocking reports of an elderly ultra-Orthodox Jew from a non-Zionist party who was asked by the president to form a new Israeli government? The man with war up his sleeve Whoever was frightened by Shaul Mofaz's war cries targeting Iran can just calm down. Barak's successor in the Defense Ministry may turn out to be Avigdor Lieberman, who suggested bombing Tehran during the 2001 election campaign - along with Egypt's Aswan Dam, for good measure. Lieberman is fixated on getting the Defense Ministry in a Netanyahu government, if there is one after the elections. He is also convinced that he will have the political power to demand the job from Netanyahu. Lieberman has said this openly in the Russian media. Under certain political circumstances, and if Yisrael Beiteinu gets 15 seats in the elections, as its internal polls predict it will, Lieberman may well find himself just where he wants to be. Lieberman was asked about his plans this week. "The Defense Ministry," he responded. You don't think Netanyahu will want to see Ehud Barak there? he was asked. "Ehud Barak will not be defense minister in a Netanyahu government," said Lieberman. How do you know? "Barak won't be defense minister in a Netanyahu government, even if the Labor Party is part of the coalition," Lieberman added. But doesn't that seem illogical? "Barak will not be [there]," he insisted, like someone in possession of a secret only he knows. A Netanyahu associate who was informed of the conversation said in wonder: "Netanyahu would very much like to see Barak as defense minister in his government. He admires him and his defense knowledge very much. Why is Yvette [Lieberman] saying this?" It appears that Lieberman wants people to get used to hearing "Defense Minister Lieberman," thereby turning the concept into something less illusory than it is at present. And it also seems that Netanyahu really did promise Lieberman something. Finally, Lieberman really does plan to fight for the job. Now that Lieberman's political agenda is clear, one can see his appointment to the post of minister of strategic affairs, which exposed him to top-secret intelligence information, in a different light. Now Lieberman, too, has experience. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Fragile cease-fire Olmert: Gaza cease-fire is fragile, may be short lived. Unbalanced stance Italy FM: EU stance on Israel in past swayed by intolerance.

Read & React Olmert: Gaza truce is Hamas' last chance to avoid major IDF op Responses: 204 ANALYSIS / For Gaza truce architect, Israel chose lesser of 2 evils Responses: 103 Editorial: A lengthy cease-fire is an achievement for Israel Responses: 45 Jerusalem denies services to Palestinian residents over the fence Responses: 76 Rosner's Domain / The Joe Lieberman dilemma Responses: 65 More Headlines 18:20 Barak: Only U.S. can advance Israel-Syria talks 20:39 Israel-Hamas truce takes hold in Gaza 22:01 Head of Lebanese terrorist's village: We're preparing for Kuntar's homecoming Sunday 12:24 Environmentalists win decade-long war against Eilat fish farms 18:53 VIDEO: Hamas TV shows how to abduct an Israeli soldier 19:45 Lithuania bans public display of Soviet and Nazi symbols 15:48 The Joe Lieberman dilemma 14:46 Mother of missing soldier: Hezbollah will kidnap again if Kuntar not returned 17:20 Taxi and truck drivers protest fuel prices, clog main T.A. artery 17:56 Land mine explosion kills two Bedouin children in Sinai 19:06 Report: Human rights activists in Arab world face countless threats 15:10 Four police officers injured in clashes with West Bank settlers 16:11 Social workers to shut down welfare offices over labor dispute Previous Editions Select Day 18 jun 17 jun 16 jun 15 jun 13 jun 12 jun 11 jun 10 jun 09 jun 08 jun 06 jun 05 jun

Special Offers Advertisement Holyland Park Jerusalem Apartment Tower World Class Luxury In the heart of Tel-Aviv The Meier on Rothschild tower Jerusalem of Gold Luxury apartments in Jerusalem's finest location Your vacation starts here Israel Travel Center Guaranteed Lowest Rates Free Hebrew Private Lesson www.iStudyHebrew.com Pardes Institute Summer Sessions http://www.pardes.org.il/ Free the Palestinians from: Corrupt Kleptocracy, Tyrannical Theocracy, Abysmal Anarchy Fattal Hotel Chain Perfectly located hotels on best resorts of Israel. ISRAEL BONDS Build Israel Israel bonds - a multi-purpose way to celebrate Israel's 60th Eldan Rent a Car Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on all online reservations Junkyard Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt

Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Underground | Site rules |

Real Estate in Israel | Travel to Israel with Haaretz | Hotels Israel | Restaurants Israel | Tourist attractions Israel | Shops Israel

birthright Israel

Haaretz.com, the online edition of Haaretz Newspaper in Israel, offers real-time breaking news, opinions and analysis from Israel and the Middle East. Haaretz.com provides extensive and in-depth coverage of Israel, the Jewish World and the Middle East, including defense, diplomacy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, Israeli politics, Jerusalem affairs, international relations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israeli business world and Jewish life in Israel and the Diaspora.

© Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved