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On the horns of dilemma By Shmuel Meir Tags: Golan Heights The peace talks with the Syrians took us by surprise. The public discourse is divided between strategists, who hold on to issues of topography and differences in height ("They are up there and we are below - a recipe for disaster"), and the peace-seekers, who have become giddy from the air of the summits ("Everything has already been tied up"). On the side of the debate are the residents of the Golan Heights (17,000 now, as compared with the 250,000 Syrians who lived there before 1967), and there are also the voices reminding us of the property rights over thousands of dunams that were legally acquired and registered by the Jewish National Fund. As if a private property right imparts sovereign status. Above all, the Syrian peace is characterized by periodicity. It breaks out, fades away and disappears until the next time around. As if there is no price to be paid for inexplicable delays. As if the peace that was achieved with Egypt and Jordan will never be affected by a situation of no peace with Syria. As if a superfluous war, like that of the summer of 2006, is not a sufficient price. Advertisement The public has become accustomed to not receiving explanations from its leaders. Shimon Peres broke off the negotiations with Syria in 1996 on the pretext of elections whose date he had fixed. Ehud Barak allowed the talks of 2000, and the decisive meeting between Bill Clinton and Hafez Assad, to evaporate. The answer to the question of why peace has not been achieved with Syria remains under wraps. The dramatic reversal in the Syrian position in 1991 - readiness for a full peace under the aegis of the United States - was considered insignificant by us and became non-existent. That, even though the Syrians did not back off from their stance, despite the dozens of Syrians who were killed during the Second Lebanon War and despite the incident of September 2007. A quick summary of the claims that justify the non-peace with Syria will reveal that most of them do not hold water. The security arrangements are not a stumbling block. In the peace treaty with Jordan, no demilitarized or thinned-out areas were fixed. All of Jordan is a security belt with regard to the prohibition of foreign troops entering that country. It is possible to apply the Egyptian model and to set up a strip with a lighter troop presence that is not symmetrical on the Israeli side. The issue of marking the border has produced many books with numerous proposals for a creative path between three close lines: the international border, the armistice lines and the 1967 line. With regard to everything relating to water, Israel has control of most of the sources of the Jordan River; and with regard to the Iranian issue - a peace treaty and an Iranian military presence on the Golan cannot go hand-in-hand. And what about the ultimate claim about why an agreement is not reached - the Syrian desire to paddle in Lake Kinneret? We are talking about a demand aimed at making permanent a fleeting picture of the balance of power before 1967, when Israel did not succeed in implementing its sovereignty over a strip of 10 meters on the north eastern shore of the lake. Surely it must be clear to the Syrians that a claim that rests on temporary superiority in the balance of power in those days will play into Israel's hands, since it now holds the entire Syrian heights. It is possible that this realization is what led to raising the ideas about joint sovereignty or an international park at the northeast end of Lake Kinneret. There is another thing that is extremely important: Along with the recurring refrain about the borders of June 4, a Syrian demand appeared that all nuclear facilities be under international inspection. According to the book by Itamar Rabinowitz, who headed the Israeli delegation to the talks in the 1990s, the Syrians had a well-thought-out doctrine concerning Israel's nuclear potential, and the issue took a central place in the discussions about security arrangements. At one meeting, the nuclear issue actually led to a dead end. Israel can apparently expect to face a new situation. On one side will be the peace treaties with Syria, Lebanon and the entire Arab world, with a dramatic decrease in the incentive for war on the part of distant countries. On the other side of the scale will be Israel's policy of ambiguity. The Arab League's peace initiative likewise created a connection between the nuclear potential and peace. The doctrine of ambiguity succeeded in the peace with Egypt, but since then Egypt has raised the threshold of its demands for nuclear disarmament. The United States, which has supported Israel in international forums, was not able to remove the Egyptian position from the agenda. The U.S. is committed to preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the world, according to its declared policy and according to the NPT (nuclear non-proliferation treaty). The accepted wisdom in Washington and Jerusalem, which tended to view a comfortable coexistence between ambiguity and the peace process, will require reassessment. Peace talks with Syria and the declaration on the part of former U.S. president Jimmy Carter about Israel's nuclear capabilities, indicate this future has already arrived. Syria, with the diplomatic backing of other countries, is likely to stick by its position and to demand nuclear symmetry: full inspection of its facilities and possibly also those of Iran, in return for full inspection on the Israeli side. A central layer in the doctrine of ambiguity - a declarative policy of non-proliferation and inspection when comprehensive peace is attained - will have to stand the test. Nuclear potential and peace are no longer separate worlds or worlds apart. The writer is a researcher of strategic issues and formerly headed the branch for weapons supervision in the Israel Defense Forces' Planning Branch Bookmark to del.icio.us   Fo shizzle ma nizzle American rapper Snoop Dogg slated to perform in Ramat Gan. Late date Scientists revive 2,000-year-old date seed found at Masada.   1.   Peace: Israel could scoop out another 10 meters 14:48  |  Steve 12/06/08   2.   Syria is Minority Dictatorship - No Treaty will Be Respected 16:36  |  Sam 12/06/08   3.   Israel has made its bed 21:44  |  Natallie Durson 12/06/08

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