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Last update - 09:30 12/06/2008
An equation whispered in secret
By Nadav Shragai
Tags: gaza

There are thoughts and quandaries that best remain unuttered, but the political right must share with the public its stomachaches over the issue of the Gaza Strip. A military operation in Gaza is frightening even to the right though they tend to avoid talking about it. There is more to mull than the price to be paid - a chronicle of deaths foretold - and the expected and frustrating bottom line: a short period of quiet, evacuation and then, like a wheel constantly turning on its axle, the hasty rehabilitation of terror and the renewal of mortar fire and Qassam rockets.

The right is also wary of a Gaza operation because of the possibility that Ehud Olmert or his successor will want to use a military victory there as a lever to "complete the disengagement" from the Palestinians by evacuating "most of the settlements in Judea and Samaria." Olmert used these words in August 2006 during the Second Lebanon War, to describe the fruits of an Israeli victory.

Major General (Res.) Uzi Dayan wrote frankly about this a year after the disengagement from Gaza, at the time of Operation Summer Rains in the south (during the Second Lebanon war). "The military activity," Dayan explained, "must serve the diplomatic and security aim of Israel - an initiated disengagement from the Palestinians. If we do not regain our deterrent power, and if we do not find a security answer to the firing of the Qassams, we will not be able to implement the disengagement from Judea and Samaria."
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This equation is whispered in secret among the left, while politicians on the right fear speaking of it openly. It states that so long as there is firing at the areas surrounding the Gaza Strip, the government will be unable to persuade the public it is necessary to evict tens of thousands more Jews from their homes. While putting out the conflagration in the south could perhaps bring relief to Sderot and its environs, it would bring down calamity, pain and tears on tens of thousands of Jews in Judea and Samaria. It is not only the right that finds itself trapped. The left feels, and rightly so, that going back into Gaza would stamp an official seal of failure on the disengagement. And it is clear to them that every additional day of firing in the south and avoidance of a large-scale military operation sharpens this failure, as does the recognition that a similar flight from Judea and Samaria will cause the firing to reach Kfar Sava, Hadera and Afula as well.

The political leaders on the right and on the left do not tend to make the public a partner to this duality, nor to the reasonable possibility that a short-term stay in Gaza would be pointless and followed by return to the prior situation.

The right must take care not to fall automatically into the trap of patriotism and must not "stand at attention" if the Israel Defense Forces enters the Strip. The right must make it clear that a short-term stay in Gaza would add insult to injury, and that another hasty withdrawal not only would not help us to regain our deterrent power but would smash it. The situation in the south is complicated, but there is no point in making it more complicated for a mere short-term gain that would precede another painful fall. It is necessary to rebuild permanent Israeli security control in Gaza both in the field and via intelligence, and also to consider once again setting up settlements in the northern Gaza Strip along our southern border. It is from the ruins of these settlements that the Grads and the Qassams are being fired in the direction of Ashkelon.

The left has to be reminded of the year 1994 - a black hole in their memories: Israel left Gaza. That event took place 11 years before the disengagement. The left contends that mortars and Qassams were fired even before the disengagement, but they do not mention that the firing started only after 1994 - first at Gush Katif, and then at Sderot and after the disengagement, at Ashkelon.

They fire at us from Gaza because we are not there. No one fires at Kfar Sava, which is 700 meters from Qalqilyah, or at the Jerusalem neighborhood of Gilo, which is 500 meters from Bethlehem, because the IDF comes and goes whenever it wants, and thus has corrected the mistake of withdrawing from there during the Oslo Accord years. In Gaza, it is several times harder to correct the mistake. The governments of Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert waited a long time - an excessive number of years - during which they allowed Hamas to gain strength and to turn into an army. A renewed occupation would be costly but the longer we wait, the higher the price will be.
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  2.   Reactionaries would turn back the clock 10:00  |  Natallie Durson 12/06/08
  3.   Yes, you do, Clickfool 10:56  |  Johnboy 12/06/08
  4.   Blind Vision 11:27  |  Vinegar Hill. 12/06/08
  5.   a losing strategy 11:39  |  JJ Burke 12/06/08
  6.   Remembering the GREAT STRATEGIST: Sharon! 13:12  |  Sharif Hafez 12/06/08
  7.   Correct analysis, but still "no" to Gaza Op 13:25  |  Shlomo 12/06/08
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  10.   Not with present government 14:10  |  Zev 12/06/08
  11.   They reap what they sow 14:19  |  Beni 12/06/08
  12.   #4 Vinegar Hill - it is you who have on a blindfold 14:23  |  Elihu 12/06/08
  13.   Huge retaliatory strikes from Israel will do 15:12  |  Jason 12/06/08
  14.   # 12 Elihu 15:20  |  Vinegar Hill. 12/06/08
  15.   cost/benefit 15:46  |  JJ Burke 12/06/08
  16.   annex gaza and the WB 16:11  |  annex now! 12/06/08
  17.   wot total rubbish shargai 16:36  |  Michael 12/06/08
  18.   #14 Vinegar Hill and "Root causes" 17:12  |  Elihu 12/06/08
  19.   Best policy is to let lose the artillery 17:15  |  Ilan 12/06/08
  20.   Solving the puzzle for Annex Now # 16 17:23  |  Clickfool 12/06/08
  21.   #17 Michael - wake up. 17:23  |  Elihu 12/06/08
  22.   Costs of military action need not be high, if 17:42  |  Pssd off American. 12/06/08
  23.   It is too late -- in what universe Nadav exists ? 17:44  |  Sal 12/06/08
  24.   # 13 jason 17:57  |  Axel 12/06/08
  25.   Take it from whom and where? 18:03  |  Dave 12/06/08
  26.   # 22 18:03  |  Axel 12/06/08
  27.   face the truth israel... 18:10  |  ravi 12/06/08
  28.   Elihu # 12 Your observation is correct. You conclusion is not. 18:12  |  American in NY 12/06/08
  29.   Gaza .. 18:16  |  khairi janbek 12/06/08
  30.   22.. pssd of american 18:21  |  ravi 12/06/08
  31.   Pssd off American # 22 Cyber hero 18:24  |  American in NY 12/06/08
  32.   Israelis Have Lost Their Common Sense , Courage, or Both 18:26  |  Tod Zuckerman 12/06/08
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  34.   #28 American in NY - Question 18:40  |  Elihu 12/06/08
  35.   26axel - US knew how to deal with your kind sixty years ago. 18:52  |  Pssd off American. 12/06/08
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  37.   REoccupation 19:13  |  Anthony 12/06/08
  38.   Ivar - Simplicity is overrated 19:17  |  Elihu 12/06/08
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  40.   31To NY "American" 19:35  |  Pssd off American. 12/06/08
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  44.   the great strategist that is Shragai 20:40  |  rm 12/06/08
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  50.   35 Pssd off American, I agree 100% 23:47  |  JP 12/06/08
  51.   Gaza 23:58  |  jorge grosz 12/06/08
  52.   # 35 pssd american 00:07  |  Axel 13/06/08
  53.   Hey Boris 00:08  |  Stanley 13/06/08
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  56.   RE#31, So called american in NY 02:08  |  JTA 13/06/08
  57.   RE#48, Boris. 02:11  |  JTA 13/06/08
  58.   Re#53,Stanley 02:17  |  Jta 13/06/08
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  60.   It is a tastless idea , but it makes sense 02:40  |  TOMY 13/06/08
  61.   Elihu # 34 03:29  |  American in NY 13/06/08
  62.   Pssd off America # 40 04:36  |  American in NY 13/06/08
  63.   Pssd off american # 35 04:46  |  American in NY 13/06/08
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