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Betwixt and between By Yossi Verter Tags: Tzipi Livni  This week Likud MK Reuven (Ruby) Rivlin recalled a story from the winter of 2006. On the morning after former prime minister Ariel Sharon collapsed, Rivlin, Knesset speaker at the time, phoned the deputy prime minister, Ehud Olmert. "I told him," said Rivlin, recalling the conversation that took place between him and his historic rival, "for the sake of the Jewish people I wish you success. I have just one thing to say to you: Beware of Tzipi." "Why?" Olmert asked. "Because she isn't what she appears to be." "All right," Olmert replied. "We know that we have to beware of everyone." Nearly two and a half years have elapsed since. The free advice Rivlin gave Olmert then about Tzipi Livni, the incumbent foreign minister, he could give today to the leader of his party, MK Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu. Even without Rivlin, Netanyahu is well aware of the threat Livni embodies. According to public opinion polls, she is the only contender able to rob Bibi of the chance to be prime minister. He is now commissioning public opinion polls about her, he is trying to discover skeletons in her closet and he is trying to crack the secret of her popularity. And what is he finding? That the secret is an open one: Livni has both integrity and is not implicated in any corruption scandals. The people like her - not because of her experience or her ability to make decisions, and not because of her understanding of national security matters - but because she radiates something different, qualities the public is desperate for. Advertisement This explains why in recent days Likud MKs have embarked on what looks like a coordinated and orchestrated campaign against her, highlighting the following points: Tzipi started out in the Likud as a right-winger, and has since become a leftist; she even joined forces with Avigdor (Yvet) Lieberman (now an MK in the extreme right Yisrael Beiteinu faction, which he founded after breaking away from the Likud). It was Lieberman who advanced her. She supported Olmert in the 1999 primaries run-off between Sharon and Olmert, and when Sharon won, she went crawling to him on all fours. When Sharon was investigated she did not express any criticism of him - in fact, she became one of his close associates and helped him establish Kadima. In addition, the Likud campaign alleges that Livni left no mark on the ministries in which she served, neither on justice or foreign affairs; she has no backbone, she is not built for the demanding job of prime minister of Israel and she lacks Olmert's composure, qualifications and abilities. The truth, they admit with frustration in the Likud, is that there isn't much to work with here. The paradox is that it is impossible to find anything on her because she has not done much. How often can we say that she is unsuitable when our candidate, Bibi, is considered to have been one of Israel's most unsuccessful prime ministers? And how often can we say that she isn't experienced enough, when his legacy is so problematic? Let's say, one of the Likud heads mused aloud this week, that we produced a television advertisement like that of Hillary Clinton: The red telephone rings at 3 A.M. at the Prime Minister's Residence in Jerusalem. On the line, a military adviser reports that Iran is moving its rocket launchers. Will the public really want Bibi to be the one who answers that call? Livni's real problem is that her own party doesn't think much different of her than the Likud. One Kadima MK who met with her recently was asked whether he relies on her to know how to run the country. "No!" he replied. So whom will you support? "Tzipi," he said, without blinking an eye. "She brings Knesset seats, that girl." Mofaz's comeback This week one of the Labor Party cabinet ministers provided a colorful description of what happened at Sunday's government meeting: Livni entered, hesitant, withdrawn, introspective. She took her seat, without making eye contact with anyone. A minute later Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz walked in, radiating energy and self-confidence, boasting to the prime minister of his abilities and his successes in the Kadima party membership drive. Mofaz is convinced that he can beat Livni. He is convinced that her popularity is a passing trend - like the one Minister Without Portfolio Ami Ayalon enjoyed at the start of his race against Ehud Barak (now defense minister) for chairman of the Labor Party. Ayalon started out with 40 percent and Barak with 7 percent, and Barak won thanks to the membership drive that Benjamin (Fuad) Ben-Eliezer (minister of national infrastructure) conducted on his behalf in the Arab sector and thanks to the excellent fieldwork by Shalom Simhon (minister of agriculture and rural development) and Isaac Herzog (minister of welfare and social services, and of the Diaspora). This is how primaries are won. Not in public opinion polls. Have we mentioned Labor MK Amir Peretz versus Shimon Peres? Have we mentioned Fuad versus Avram Burg? Mofaz's campaign is a Likudnik campaign. He is basing himself on registered party members and is focusing on lining up the right, as he did this week on a tour of the Golan when making his ridiculous, albeit supposedly spontaneous statement about his plan to come there one day, "with the children," to put down roots on the Golan Heights. No one knows exactly how many party members each of the candidates has signed up and how those registered party members will vote in the end. Yet, there is one basic fact that no one disputes: 20,000 people registered as party members on the Internet when Kadima started out, without any connection to one candidate or another. These members are the real backbone of Kadima, they are looking for that party's spirit as embodied by Sharon, and consider Livni to be the person who best symbolizes Kadima today. If they come out to vote, Livni will win. If they stay home, or happen to be abroad when the primaries are held, Mofaz's registered members will control the ground. It seems only yesterday that Livni was the only realistic contender for Kadima leadership, and all of a sudden a "buzz" has developed around Mofaz. The other two contenders, Minister of Internal Affairs Meir Sheetrit and Minister of Internal Security Avi Dichter, remain in the margins. For about three years, ever since he left the Likud for Kadima - about a minute after he declared that he has no other political home - Mofaz was considered a marginal politician. Olmert treated him cruelly by taking the Defense Ministry away from him and appointing him Transportation Minister. And Mofaz in turn criticized everything: the conduct of the Second Lebanon War, the policy in the Gaza Strip, and the negotiations with Syria and with the Palestinians. Time and time again he expected that Olmert would "upgrade" him, but his hopes were dashed. Now - perhaps for the last time - Mofaz is counting on Olmert, on his machinery, on his activists and above all on his desire to take revenge on Livni via his transportation minister. Mofaz's greatest supporters are Netanyahu and Barak. If they could, they would establish a nonprofit association: PMS - Political Mofaz Supporters. Mofaz is a rightist, a Likudnik, who is liable to take a bigger bite out of the Likud than Livni. But according to Netanyahu's calculation, Mofaz will never come across as the great white hope, when compared to the Likud. So he'll take a little nibble - so what? In the end, all of those Knesset seats will be part of the right-wing bloc and land in Netanyahu's pocket. In the final calculation, Livni at the head of Kadima weakens the right-wing bloc. In addition, Netanyahu believes it is quite possible that Mofaz will take Kadima and come back home, to the Likud, in return for the defense portfolio. The possibility of Kadima headed by Livni and Labor headed by Barak would constitute a disturbing and threatening counterweight. As for Barak, he wants Mofaz because with him at its head, Kadima will become a Little League Likud and many former Labor voters will prefer to come back home to the Labor Party. Kadima headed by Livni is liable to put Labor below the threshold of 15 Knesset seats. "Mofaz is our big hope," close associates of Barak are saying. "Anyone who thinks Barak is interested in a Livni victory, which is coordinated with him, doesn't know what he is talking about." Farewell, dear friend Minister Without Portfolio Haim Ramon returned from the United States mid-week. When he stated at a Washington conference that elections will be held in November of this year, it seemed like he was dismissing his pal Ehud Olmert, the person for whose sake he returned to politics, after being embroiled in the "kiss" trial (Ramon was found guilty of forcibly kissing a female soldier). The last thing Ramon wanted was to harm his friendship with Olmert. All he meant to say was that Barak's ultimatum meant that elections will be held before the end of the year. People who spoke to Ramon after the Talansky affair broke gained the impression that he will not remain in government once Olmert resigns. Ramon is tired of politics, he is burnt out and he has had his fill of disappointments. Even if he is elected to Kadima's Knesset list and even if Kadima forms the next government, he will not linger outside Livni's bureau, waiting to hear which portfolio she intends to give him. Apart from that, he believes that the person who will be handing out the portfolios will be Netanyahu. Ramon (and he is not the only one) does not understand the political logic behind the step Barak took last week. In his mind, Barak has put himself into a situation in which he can only lose. If he thought a revolt would break out in Kadima in the wake of his ultimatum, that didn't happen. Livni spoke up in a weak little voice, and the rest are allowing Olmert to take his time, at least until Talansky's cross examination. They are treating Olmert with respect and, at least according to Ramon, this is the way a prime minister should be treated. Contrary to Barak, Ramon believes Olmert is able to function. Olmert's real problem is that he is unable to instigate any big moves, toward peace or toward war. Whatever he does, he will be accused of considerations of personal survival. Olmert will need Barak's approval for any diplomatic or security measures he wants to implement and, in the wake of issuing his ultimatum, Barak isn't about to go anywhere with him. This is not how Ramon imagined his Big Bang; this is not how he had hoped to finish his term in office. Ramon had big plans for Olmert: daring, path-breaking negotiations with the Palestinians - not what is currently happening under Livni; the passage of a law concerning the evacuation of the West Bank, whose feasibility - in terms of financial, security, diplomatic, public and political aspects - Ramon himself has just completed; a profound debate over the problem of Hamas in Gaza; and several more ideas. The game is over. A few hours at the Knesset on Wednesday provided the proof: Laws worth billions of shekels passed almost without any remarks. Ramon sat there despairing, but he had no strength left. He already knows this movie by heart. In 2003 - a few months after Olmert entered the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Labor, he gave an expansive interview to Nadav Eyal, of the mass circulation daily Maariv. Among other things, Eyal spoke to him about his "hedonism," about the trips, the hotels, the meals. In the interview, which bore the prophetic headline "The Heir," Eyal quotes an unnamed cabinet minister who said of Olmert: "He could be prime minister; the problem is that he is busy with ties, cigars, trips and meals." At this point, writes Eyal, Olmert's former bureau chief Shula Zaken intervenes, saying: "What meals are they talking about? He asks me to bring him sandwiches because he doesn't have any time to eat." Olmert adds: "I served as mayor for 10 years and I never submitted a receipt for a single meal." In his article, Eyal quotes another minister who says of Olmert: "He has the ability, he gets decisions passed and he is determined. The only problem is that throughout the entire meeting he is thinking about his next flight to New York, in two hours' time." Olmert responds: "I assume the person who said that is one of those ministers who approaches me at the end of the meeting and asks me to arrange an invitation to New York for him, too. The difference between me and other ministers is that most of my trips are paid for by outside elements who invite me because they want to hear what I have to say. I am not one of those ministers who organize trips for themselves 'on ministry matters' about which no one knows a thing." Elsewhere in the interview, Olmert adds: "I can recall, for example, a candidate who in recent years has bought a summer home and a winter home and has earned millions. Is he some sort of anti-hedonist, or what? I can recall someone else who has come across as an almost socially conscious figure, and he isn't. It's hard for me to judge. I have been living modestly all my life." Bookmark to del.icio.us   Knowing when to fold Ehud Olmert tells Kadima to begin preparations for party primaries. Cost of kashrut Meat prices set to soar after raid on biggest kosher slaughterhouse in U.S.   1.   Barak wants Mofaz because Kadima will splinter 06:59  |  Rowan 07/06/08   2.   Livni 07:20  |  Danite 07/06/08

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