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Last update - 02:46 05/06/2008 Approaching an Iranian winter By Ari Shavit Tags: nuclear weapons, Iran  Contemplate, if you will, this wild scenario: In November, after Senator Barack Obama becomes president-elect of the United States, outgoing president George W. Bush inflicts a severe blow on Iran. That could take the form of a naval siege, the flexing of American military muscle, or even an all-out air strike targeting Iran's nuclear program. Under ordinary circumstances, people would reject out of hand such a wild scenario. The American public does not support the idea of opening a second front in the Middle East, and America's political, military and intelligence establishments are fearful. A military move, even a semi-military one, carried out by an outgoing president would be unprecedented and illegitimate; it would be perceived as the final insane trumpet call of a thoroughly off-the-wall administration with a committed religious outlook. But these are not ordinary times, and the protagonists involved are not ordinary people. The logic that guides Bush and Dick Cheney is not always readily understood by public opinion in the West or even by the molders of that public opinion. This logic could lead the U.S. president and vice president to conclude that, if they do not act, neither will Obama. If Obama does not act, Iran will go nuclear, and, if that happens, evil will triumph. Therefore, the dialogue that the current Washington administration is conducting with history could lead it to do what few people believe it would ever do. There is a real possibility that Bush will end his woeful second and final term of office with a bang, not a whimper. Advertisement The above scenario is admittedly wild. If John McCain is elected president, there will be no need for it. If Obama is elected, and if that election reflects a commitment to prevent such a scenario, the chances of it becoming a reality will narrow. The various establishments in Washington might even thwart the thwarting of a nuclear Iran. Bush and Cheney might back off, give up on their plans and then fade into oblivion. Thus, this wild scenario has little likelihood of ever happening. But little likelihood is not zero likelihood. When we are talking about matters that could have fateful consequences, even a scenario with little likelihood of occurring deserves serious attention. In the long run, such a wild scenario would be good for Israel just as it would be good for America. A nuclear Iran would endanger Israel's survival, Middle Eastern stability and the West's well-being. On the other hand, an Iran deprived of its nuclear weapons would ensure both Israel's future and a stable Middle East and would allow the West to continue maintaining its values and lifestyle for a considerable period of time. However, in the short run, this wild scenario is fraught with danger. There could be a serious intelligence blunder; there could be a serious military blunder. In any event, the Iran of the ayatollahs is a power with a religiously committed leadership; it is very clever and powerful. If pushed into a corner, it might prefer to go out with a bang. Nobody today can say for sure what would be the nature and intensity of such a bang. Any self-respecting state must seriously take into consideration any scenario that could mold its future, for better or worse. When so much is at stake, serious attention must be given even to low-probability scenarios. It is by no means certain that the coming winter will be Iranian; it is not even reasonable to assume such a possibility. However, this summer Israel must act as if the possibility of an Iranian winter is an imminent eventuality. At the political level, the implications are obvious: Decisions must be made without delay. Israel cannot take the risk, if its security hangs in the balance, of being led by someone who has been deprived of all moral authority. Nor can Israel take the risk of being waist-deep in a national election campaign at such a momentous hour. A razor-sharp, clear decision must be taken: Either hold elections now or set up an alternative government immediately. By November, Israel must have a new, responsible leadership that the public can trust. But more than a new leadership is needed. Israel requires a new agenda as well - an agenda of readiness and ever-increasing strength, of conciliation and solidarity. To effectively deal with the wild but low-probability scenario referred to above, Israel must mend its ways. It must do so even to deal effectively with scenarios that are not as wild but are more probable. The road to a better future will be a bumpy one and the path to peace might turn out to be bloodstained. Therefore, the concluding chords of the Olmert era must also be the chords of a new beginning. After two years of "spins" it is high time for action. After two years filled with bitterness and spite, it is high time for extinguishing the flames of hatred, for lowering tensions and dressing wounds. Israel is not the hollow, rotting nation that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad thinks it is. But to deal effectively with Ahmadinejad, Israel must get its act together - and quickly. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Sarkozy's promise 'France will never compromise Israel's security' Israel's agenda Is an Israeli strike on Iran still on the government's agenda?   1.   Nuclear Iran is good for srael 05:04  |  BIG 05/06/08   2.   Israelis Don`t Seem To Get It 06:01  |  Tod Zuckerman 05/06/08   3.   Avi, One More Thing 06:09  |  Tod Zuckerman 05/06/08   4.   A nuclear Iran will force Israel into making peace 14:34  |  Danny 05/06/08   5.   Approaching an iranina winter 15:20  |  Fred 05/06/08   6.   Military Reality 15:28  |  Kenneth S Brower 05/06/08   7.   Reality: no other option than to accept a nuclear Iran 19:06  |  Gurmit Singh 05/06/08   8.   Something must be done soon 17:24  |  Gordon 06/06/08   9.   Middle Earth 20:56  |  Avshalom 06/06/08   10.   Had Israel met her match? 01:46  |  Banji 07/06/08   11.   Are you serious? 22:51  |  JP 07/06/08   12.   Taking Iran Head on 18:45  |  stephen Musau 22/06/08   13.   an opinion 02:23  |  Robert 23/06/08

Read & React Iran threatens 'devastating' response if attacked by Israel Responses: 311 Israel: There will be no Shalit deal unless Hamas is flexible Responses: 86 Yossi Melman: Israel is a long way from attacking Iran Responses: 135 Report: N. Koreans worked on Iran nukes at Syria plant hit by IAF Responses: 102 Gideon Levy: Does Israel really want peace? Responses: 109 More Headlines 02:55 Hezbollah deal delayed over demand to include Palestinian prisoners 22:43 High Court to state: Keep Gaza crossings closed until Monday 23:40 Sarkozy: There won't be Middle East peace without Syria talks 16:32 Olmert: I'll fire Labor ministers who try to topple government 03:09 Frustrated and losing hope, Shalit's parents fight Gaza cease-fire 18:13 Iran threatens 'devastating' response if attacked by Israel 19:19 Panel: Germany gave Israel NIS 61.5 billion, Holocaust survivors got about half 03:11 Route 66 victims paid with their lives for lack of NIS 9-million lane divider 01:46 Barak ignores Olmert threat, vows Labor will vote to dissolve Knesset 22:42 Minister Ayalon: Israeli Arabs should have 'cultural independence' 19:22 Ministers nix bill to move Bedouin living near toxic disposal site 23:30 Teenager confesses to murder of Ramat Hasharon lawyer Previous Editions Select Day 22 jun 20 jun 19 jun 18 jun 17 jun 16 jun 15 jun 13 jun 12 jun 11 jun 10 jun 09 jun

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