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Endgame By Yossi Verter Tags: Tzipi Livni, Ehud Barak  It will be difficult, and ugly, if Ehud Olmert doesn't pull himself together and end it all in an honorable and elegant manner. Thanks to all his political experience and finely tuned instincts, the prime minister is well aware that the curtain is descending. What does he have to gain from another two months in power if he is devoid of moral authority, entangled in investigations - and has in effect turned into a political leper? Olmert is a smart and courageous man, and a smart and courageous decision is needed: to convene the Kadima faction and issue a public announcement that he is stepping down. In one fell swoop, the heavy burden will be lifted from him. The more honorable path he takes with regard to his party and to the public, the better off he will be personally. Olmert was supposed to devote this weekend to contemplation, consultations and family talks about where to go from here. This week, his bureau staffers were still discussing more or less practical scenarios: dismissing Tzipi Livni; appointing Shaul Mofaz as a deputy prime minister to replace Olmert for 100 days, and as foreign minister; proposing that Avigdor Lieberman's Israel Beiteinu and United Torah Judaism join the government for half a year instead of Labor; and appointing Mofaz as defense minister. Somehow, the name of Mofaz, Olmert's new best friend, came up in all potential scenarios. Advertisement "He hasn't given me a millimeter of maneuvering room," Olmert said of Barak. "He just completely shut the door on me, he didn't beat around the bush, either socially (Yes, I thought we were friends) or politically." "What do you suggest I do?" Olmert asked Barak when they spoke Wednesday afternoon. "We have an important discussion about Gaza tomorrow. Should I cancel it? Next week I'm traveling to the United States for a critical talk with President [George W.] Bush on matters that you and I know about. Should I cancel the trip?" In all his years in politics, Olmert has done his share of backstabbing, and has been on the receiving end, too, but he couldn't hide the sense of betrayal he felt from Barak. What really stunned him was the discovery that Barak had been planning this move for almost two weeks, and that all the Labor ministers were a party to it. Olmert had always believed that he could trust them with his eyes closed. Tuesday night, when Olmert heard Ayala Hasson's report on Channel 1 about Barak's intention to release a statement the next day, he called several Labor ministers. "You are not doing this to me," he told them. "It's a stab in the back. Because of one, unbelievable witness, you're ready to seal my fate? Wait for the counter-investigation." Almost two weeks ago, Barak invited Ministers Benjamin Ben-Eliezer, Shalom Simhon, Issac Herzog and Ami Ayalon to his home. "There was amazing Chinese food," Ayalon recalled this week. After this Talansky fellow testifies, Barak told the ministers, we'll have to do something. "We are the party of Yitzhak Rabin," Barak said. "That obligates us. If Talansky says in court, under oath, what the newspaper headlines are saying, it will arouse a general sense of nausea among the public. Today it all sounds like stories, but it's infuriating. We're not the Third World. If we keep on acting as if nothing happened, we'll project to the world that we consider this normative behavior." "We have to have new elections," said Ben-Eliezer. "And we can't let Tzipi become prime minister. She'll eat away at us." Ayalon thought differently: "If possible, this Kadima-Labor coalition should continue." Barak understood - from the polls, apparently, but also from friends - that continuing his tenure as defense minister in Olmert's government won't save him. On the contrary, it will only hurt him. The main objective of Barak's move was to hurt Kadima and Livni. Ostensibly, Barak signaled that he's interested in Kadima primaries and for Livni to be elected, so she can form a government that will continue with the present Knesset. But Barak wants to push Livni into a corner: If she really has so much integrity, she ought to come out against Olmert. If not, he'll have something to say about her in the elections. Granted, she is talking about how difficult this whole business with Olmert is for her. But this is the same Livni who went with Ariel Sharon to Kadima, who forgave him for the Greek Island affair and for Cyril Kern, while Barak said, when he was still a civilian: "The Sharon family is corrupt to the core, and mustn't be allowed to run the country." We've never heard that kind of statement from Livni, Barak told his associates. Now Barak is likening Livni and Kadima to participants in a TV reality show: Having already brought us a problematic disengagement, a failed war, and countless investigations and corruption scandals, these same people want to come back from the Island of the Dead [featured in the Israeli version of "Survivor"] in order to save us? From whom? From themselves and the ruin they've left behind. As soon as the public takes a more serious look at Kadima, people will realize that there's nothing there. Barak understands that as long as Kadima exists, he will not be prime minister. He needs to split it, to portray it as a party that supports corruption and wants to hold onto power. He's even entertaining the idea of forming an "emergency government" with Netanyahu for six months. "Let's see how they do out of power for a few months. They'll scatter everywhere," said Barak. It appears that Netanyahu is finally about to get the elections he's been pining for since the end of the Second Lebanon War. In his assessment, the Livni-Barak axis is the biggest threat to him. Netanyahu believes that if Livni is elected chairman of Kadima, she and Barak will strike an agreement prior to the elections for a rotating premiership, on condition that the center-left bloc attains a 61-seat majority. Netanyahu's logic goes as follows: Without a rotation agreement between those two, neither of them will be able to serve as prime minister alone. They need each other in order to survive. Survey during a storm The survey whose findings are cited here was conducted over a two-day period: the day of Moshe Talansky's testimony and the day of Ehud Barak's statement. No answer better symbolizes these days than the one to the question: Which trait is most important in a candidate for prime minister? Forty percent responded: An upstanding character. Only 23 percent wished for a candidate who above all "ensures Israel's security" and 19 percent wanted a candidate who would "advance the peace process." This is, of course, an emotional answer. Had the survey been conducted in the wake of a terror attack or another security-related event, security issues would have headed the rankings. The survey reflects the fluctuations in public opinion, but it mostly reflects a sense of disgust. "Satisfaction" with Olmert's performance as prime minister plunged to a new low, not seen since the terrible days immediately following the Second Lebanon War. Livni, the most prominent alternative to Olmert, is also evoking a negative response for the first time in some nine months. The rate of dissatisfaction with her exceeds the rate of satisfaction. The moment she becomes a realistic candidate for prime minister, two opposite processes occur: While she gains popularity in the center-left camp, she loses sympathy among the general public, since the right considers her an enemy. Barak is perpetuating his usual tendency: He hasn't been able to translate the natural manner with which he conducts the job of defense minister into any sort of general popularity. It's possible that the blow he delivered against Olmert the other day will eventually translate into Knesset seats, too. Barak thinks that as long as he is part of the Olmert government, he won't achieve a breakthrough. That will only happen once the campaign really begins, and the nation is asked to choose who it wants to be in control of the red button at the moment of truth. He's confident that, at the last minute, his logic will be adopted by the voters, too. The survey examined the feelings of voters in general and of Kadima voters in particular regarding the four candidates for Kadima leadership: Foreign Minister Livni, Transportation Minister Mofaz, Internal Security Minister Dichter and Interior Minister Sheetrit. The next Kadima chairman will be chosen by the party's 60,000 registered members and not its voters among the wider public, though there is usually some congruence between the two. As far as Kadima voters go, there are only two candidates: Livni and Mofaz. Rather surprisingly, Livni is expected to do better at dealing with security issues and combating terror than former defense minister and chief of staff Mofaz, and than former Shin Bet security service chief Dichter. It's hard to believe that Kadima voters really consider Livni that authoritative on defense matters. It's more likely that they're simply transferring her surplus popularity to every area. Kadima voters feel that Livni will outdo Mofaz and Dichter at handling security matters, and will do better in the economic realm than Sheetrit, a former finance minister. And they consider her a clear symbol of honesty and integrity. But one might wish to ask Kadima voters: Only 10 percent of you found Dichter to be upstanding? We're talking about a young politician who was in the IDF and the Shin Bet his whole life and whose name has never been connected with any scandal, with any corruption, with any envelope. The pensioners disappear The most striking finding of the Haaretz-Dialog poll, overseen by Professor Camil Fuchs of the Tel Aviv University Department of Statistics, is that the Likud has emerged from the mini-crisis that struck it a few weeks ago and regained six mandates; Labor does not get beyond 19 mandates, while Kadima led by Olmert is at just 13 mandates. If elections were held today, Netanyahu would have no difficulty putting together a right-wing coalition, which would likely topple him from power after a brief spell. At the bottom of the chart, other things are occurring: The Pensioners, who had been flirting with the vote threshold up to now, are erased for good. Arcadi Gaydamak, who tried to annex the faction's three defectors, has also disappeared. As soon as philanthropy gave way for wheeling and dealing of the lowest variety, his few mandates flew out the window. On the left, too, volatility is apparent: The effect of the election of Haim ("Jumas") Oron as head of Meretz has dissipated, and the party has returned to its present size of just five mandates. In the Arab sector, Balad, sans Azmi Bishara, is weakened, and it could well disappear completely after the next elections. Meanwhile, Ra'am-Ta'al is gaining mandates, apparently thanks to the addition of Ahmad Tibi and Ibrahim Sarsur. The new party founded by the latest defector from Labor, Ephraim Sneh's Strong Israel, was not included in this survey. Bookmark to del.icio.us   A staunch ally Obama to AIPAC: I'll do everything to prevent Iran from obtaining nukes. Pro-Israel Nazis German group condemns anti-Semitism, says Holocaust 'unjustifiable.'   1.   The Predicator 15:50  |  Buzaglow 30/05/08   2.   Barak decorated commando, Oldemerde, decorated envelopes. 18:12  |  dav zee 30/05/08   3.   And now, a musical interlude 20:30  |  Gideon Reader 30/05/08   4.   Mean while, on the eastern front... 21:07  |  JIm 30/05/08

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