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Playing poker with Nasrallah By Amir Oren Tags: Hassan Nasrallah  Hassan Nasrallah likes to describe the tactics he employs against Israel in gambling terms, and is especially fond of the poker analogy. "Let's say that Syria and Israel, and Lebanon and Israel, reach a political agreement. What, then, will be the future of the resistance [Hezbollah]?" he was asked, for example, in a 1996 interview, as Israel's Operation Grapes of Wrath ended in southern Lebanon. His answer: "We will keep that card to ourselves, just as the Israelis do. If we show the card now, we will be forgoing our weapon. I am not saying that we will continue with the operations, but I will also not commit to putting an end to them. I am saying: My country is occupied, so get out, and after you get out you will hear from me." Eight years after withdrawing from Lebanon, Israel continues to hear from Nasrallah. He is still as eager as ever to play poker with - rather, against - Israel. In the current game, the kidnapped Israel Defense Forces soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev are on the table. The cards are in Nasrallah's hands, the decision lies with Israel. "Israel's weakness lies in its fear of casualties," Nasrallah said in the interview 12 years ago - not for the first or last time. Nearly 60 years since 885 Israelis were taken captive by Egypt, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon in the 1948 war, Israel is still releasing captives and prisoners in return for its people, both soldiers and civilians. And not just to secure the release of its own: In 1985, when a TWA plane was hijacked to Beirut and Imad Mughniyeh made his debut in the cockpit - he ordered the murder of a U.S. Navy diver, who was among the passengers - Israel bowed to American pressure and freed 100 prisoners in return for the remaining passengers and crew. Advertisement Terrorist attacks perpetrated for bargaining purposes are meant to produce a deal. In the Lebanese arena, hostage takers frequently have not acted on behalf of Hezbollah or Iran (both of which preferred to kill Americans, Frenchmen and Israelis to spur their governments to withdraw forces), but for a family, clan or sect that sought its loved one's release from prisons in Israel, Lebanon or Kuwait. When a different logic is at play - i.e., of a movement or a state - the purpose of an abduction, or of grabbing the captive from his kidnappers and then hiding him, is not necessarily a deal. The West is driven by results; the East works on the basis of process. Hezbollah and Iran do not necessarily hope to reach an accommodation, but rather to bog Israel down in a bargaining process that drags on for years. They want to prevent the Israel Defense Forces, and especially the air force, from launching cross-border raids, thereby proving to the soldiers and their families that the promise "to bring the boys home, no matter what," is not being fulfilled. And if a deal does materialize, who will be released? The "symbolic" prisoner, who has aged after decades of imprisonment for murder, or some unknown young man who arrived in prison as a novice, but has become a professional terrorist thanks to the encounter with his new pals behind bars? Who will pose a greater danger to Israel after his release? And who is more dangerous: the prisoner inside or his brother outside, who is eager to get him released and take revenge? Do Nasrallah and Hamas really lack tens of thousands of volunteers willing to perpetrate acts of terror? And how can Israel forgo the small amount of punishment and deterrence that is achieved by incarceration? And more: If after the two years in which Gilad Shalit has been held captive Israel will release 450 prisoners in return for his release, does that mean that the price for keeping an Israeli soldier in captivity for two years is 900 Palestinian man-years? Or is it the opposite - that after all the hedging and bargaining, Israel yielded and handed the abductors a victory? The negotiations with Shalit's abductors, and all the complications involved in them, is nevertheless straightforward compared to the give and take with Nasrallah. One Israeli source, who has read reports about the indirect contacts with the Hezbollah leader, said this week that the headlines generated by Nasrallah's speech about the release of Samir Kuntar, the murderer from Nahariya, were not news and were not correct. The outline of the agreement as described in the media - Kuntar and others in return for Regev and Goldwasser, without releasing any Palestinians and without receiving any information about missing air force navigator Ron Arad - are not accurate, nor is the deal imminent, the source said. Nasrallah has already made similar statements in recent months, directly or indirectly, and afterward added reservations, subtracted details and confused things he had supposedly clarified. Israel's vacillation has to do with the condition of Regev and Goldwasser. The more people believe that one or both of them are alive, the greater the likelihood that Israel will say yes. But exchanging Kuntar for dead bodies, without the mystery of Arad's fate being resolved, will be an Israeli admission of defeat and an invitation for more abductions. The working assumption in Israel is quite bleak, and it is impossible to use it as the basis for making an unequivocal decision about whether to strike a deal. If it were a question of mounting an operation, this assumption could provoke a decision that involves ruling out certain options. A theoretical example: Israeli intelligence discovers where Regev and Goldwasser are being held, the location is verified, but the secret-within-the-secret - whether they are alive - is not revealed. In those circumstances, it is improbable that a dangerous operation would be authorized to extract the two. The situation is different if an agreement is achieved. The working assumption is not sufficient to dispel the cloud of uncertainty that hovers above the soldiers. Their parents, siblings and, particularly, the wives must know the truth, one way or the other. The difference between the status of "missing" and "fallen soldier whose place of burial is unknown" could also be the difference between a widow and an agunah (in Jewish law, a "chained" woman who cannot remarry because there is no proof her husband is dead). It is a sensitive difference, but one with concrete implications. First pay, then see During World War II, the Jewish community in Palestine lost hundreds of people in ships that were sunk. The number of missing in other nations is far higher. From World War II until the first Gulf War of 1991, a total of 88,000 Americans went missing, among them 165 soldiers and civilians, most of them members of air crews, who disappeared on missions during the Cold War. Not all the planes crashed in the ocean. There were pilots and CIA personnel who were arrested in communist countries; maybe decades later some of them will reappear, alive and free. The last American MIA (missing in action) is U.S. Navy Commander Michael Scott Speicher F-18 pilot, whose plane was shot down in western Iraq on the first night of the 1991 war. All the efforts to find him have been unsuccessful. Not even the presence of American troops in Iraq for the past five years has helped resolve the mystery. When Saddam Hussein was captured, the Americans hoped that at last they had reached the keeper of all secrets. But even when he had nothing left to lose, Saddam said he did not know what had happened to the missing pilot. If Nasrallah were to fall into Israeli hands, he would have a hard time making the same claim about Regev and Goldwasser. Nor would senior personnel in the Iranian regime, in the Revolutionary Guards and in the Iranian ministry of intelligence be able to persuade anyone that they do not know what happened to Ron Arad. Anyway these scenarios are not very likely. At present, then, there is uncertainty within uncertainty. An agreement involving Regev and Goldwasser without Arad will leave the navigator's wife, Tami Arad, in a state of perpetual doubt. Without a deal, Karnit Goldwasser will remain in the same state as Tami Arad. "Once the betting is done, each player remaining in the game has the opportunity to pay to see the player who is claiming the pot," according to the rules of draw poker (www.pokeronlineplay.co.uk). "Pay to see is the final bet. Those who elect to see have the right to look at the final hand." In this hand, Nasrallah is not demanding interim payments for signs of life, which, perhaps - he is the one who knows - he cannot provide. What he is demanding is pay to see: Only at the moment of the deal's consummation will you know if you are getting living or dead soldiers. Nasrallah will probably insist that Kuntar be released first, either at the border crossing at Rosh Hanikra or in a third country, in return for one of the abducted soldiers. Then, probably, a blacked-out Hezbollah vehicle will arrive at the exchange point, its back door will be opened and a coffin will be taken out. One of the two families will immediately begin mourning. The other will have to wait a few more minutes, still uncertain, while Nasrallah stretches Israel's nerves to the breaking point. An experienced observer who follows Nasrallah's moves was asked if, how and when the deal with Israel will be completed. He switched the metaphor to a different game: "In the Champions League final, between Chelsea and Manchester United, there was no way to guess the outcome before the opening whistle, or even at halftime, or even in overtime, and not even during the tie-breaking shootout." Bookmark to del.icio.us   A staunch ally Obama to AIPAC: I'll do everything to prevent Iran from obtaining nukes. Pro-Israel Nazis German group condemns anti-Semitism, says Holocaust 'unjustifiable.'   1.   Find same Israel S-O-B as Nasrallah 16:56  |  Matthew 30/05/08   2.   The scenario described at article`s end is unacceptable 17:30  |  McQueen 30/05/08   3.   Nasrallah !! 18:05  |  Libnanee 30/05/08   4.   Fire with Fire 19:22  |  RickD 30/05/08   5.   wild west poker game 21:15  |  Harry 30/05/08   6.   NASRALLAH 21:57  |  DAVID 30/05/08   7.   Declare Missing Soldiers Dead 20:24  |  David 01/06/08

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