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Cutting out the middleman By Shlomo Avineri Tags: Syria, Israel, Middle East  At this point, it is still difficult to tell whether the Turkish mediation between Israel and Syria will indeed lead to an agreement. The gaps between the two sides appear to be too wide, since all that interests the Syrians is the Golan Heights, while Israel will undoubtedly insist on clarifying strategic matters like ties with Iran, as well as Syria's involvement in Lebanon and support of Hezbollah, Hamas and other Palestinian organizations. Nonetheless, there is no doubt that the negotiations constitute a significant breakthrough, and it is clear that Syria has a strong motivation to strike a deal and come out of its less-than-splendid isolation. One can also assume that the sophisticated way in which Israel dealt with its raid on Syria last September showed Bashar Assad the fundamental weakness and vulnerability of his country when compared to Israel's might. But anyone who examines the context in which these talks are being conducted will be struck by what characterized all previous agreements between Israel and Arab entities: The Israel-Syria negotiations were not initiated by the United States and so far, Washington has played no part in them. There are even some who have discerned a certain sourness in the American reaction to reports of talks in Ankara. Advertisement This is part of the major paradox of American policy in the Middle East: For decades, the United States has been trying to broker an agreement between Israel and Arab states, and there are innumerable American initiatives for bringing peace to the region - from the 1969 Rogers Plan to U.S. President George W. Bush's road map. All generated intensive diplomatic activity that continued for years, but for all America's power, not a single one of these initiatives has led to an Israeli-Arab deal. All the peace agreements that have been reached so far began as an initiative of the parties themselves, and if there were mediators, they were not American. True, at decisive moments toward the end of bilateral negotiations, Washington did enter the picture, but the initiative for negotiations was not American, and the truly significant negotiations were not conducted via the U.S. Let's take a case-by-case look: ? Egyptian president Anwar Sadat's visit to Jerusalem took place without American knowledge or involvement, and at first actually spurred hostility from the White House. U.S. president Jimmy Carter's national security adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, viewed the visit as dangerous to the stability of the Middle East; he also opposed the American idea of holding an international summit with Soviet participation. Israel and Egypt held in-depth negotiations for a year, in which they agreed on most of the controversial elements. Only toward the end of the talks, when there were still a few outstanding issues that threatened to undermine the entire process, did Carter (who had meanwhile changed his mind) come into the picture and invite both sides to Camp David, where the final wrinkles were ironed out. The accord was later signed on the White House lawn. But there was a lot of justice in not letting Carter share the Nobel Peace Prize received by Sadat and Israeli prime minister Menachem Begin: They deserved the glory. ? Negotiations between Israel and the Palestine Liberation Organization, which led to the Oslo Accords, were conducted covertly and without American knowledge. When it became known that an agreement had been reached, Washington was angry that Jerusalem had undertaken this process without coordination with the U.S. Nonetheless, the American administration ultimately acted wisely when it became clear that there were still a few unresolved elements: It invited Yasser Arafat to the White House and helped to seal the agreement. ? Even the agreement between Israel and Jordan was reached in talks between the two sides - to which the U.S. was not a party, and about which it had reservations even during critical moments. After an agreement was reached, U.S. president Bill Clinton came to the signing ceremony in the Arava and gave it the American stamp of approval, but the deal itself was finalized without his involvement. By contrast, high-profile American initiatives that were important in and of themselves did not produce results. Indeed, for years, hundreds of diplomats from around the world ran around chasing peace agreements, but to no avail. The 1991 Madrid conference was ultimately a glorified photo op. U.S. secretary of state Warren Christopher visited Damascus dozens of times, but failed to bring the positions of both sides closer together. The 2000 Camp David summit was the "mother" of all American failures in terms of a Middle East peace accord, and while Bush's road map still serves as a framework for negotiations that have continued for several years, no agreement is visible on the horizon. The 2007 Annapolis conference was an important show, but did not lead to a deal. Final push One cannot and must not denigrate American power and importance; it is especially important to remember that after a deal is reached, or in the final stages of negotiation, American involvement is likely to be decisive. But ultimately, in such different situations as Israel's relations with Egypt, the PLO and Jordan, it was the political will and considerations, the initiative and resourcefulness of local leaders that set the stage for negotiations, and which made them both possible and successful. This principle does not apply solely to the Middle East; American intervention does not exactly signal success in conflict resolution worldwide. The U.S. ardently supported former UN secretary general Kofi Annan's plan to resolve the conflict in Cyprus, but this grandiose scheme failed due to opposition from the Greek-Cypriots. If there is now a chance of a slow and complex process of rapprochement there, it is due to political changes on the Greek side and initiatives of the leaders on both sides. In Kosovo, U.S. intervention did not succeed in getting the Serbs to accept the solution proposed by the international community (the Ahtisaari plan), and the Americans are not having any success resolving the problems of the various ethnic-religious groups in Bosnia either. The reasons for these failures are complex: For one, when U.S. representatives are in the room, each party tries to convince the Americans - instead of the other side - of its rightness. In addition, America's agenda differs from that of the various sides themselves, and its attention at the highest levels (president, secretary of state) cannot focus continuously, day by day and hour by hour, on conducting negotiations that for the parties themselves are critical and existential. Finally, the Americans sometimes lack the in-depth understanding of the tortuous political considerations that underlie each party's position, which can come only from an extended familiarity with the local political culture. Some of these elements can be seen in the Syrian-Israeli sphere. For the U.S., this issue is bound up in Bush's international policy regarding the war on terror; the Israeli element in the conflict with Syria is but a small detail in this globe-encompassing strategy. From this perspective, the U.S. really doesn't care right now whether there is an Israeli-Syrian agreement. For Israel, by contrast, the question of relations with that nation is an integral part of the effort to make peace with all its neighbors and to distance Syria from a nuclear Iran. That's why Israeli intelligence officials agree on the importance of the latest developments. While this is just one small part of a comprehensive policy vis-a-vis the U.S., it is an existential matter for Israel. There is one additional, possibly ironic, element worth mentioning. There is no doubt as to the depth of Israel's need for American strategic support, especially in the case of a conflict or war. But this bond with the U.S. does not mean that Israel lacks autonomous room to maneuver when making peace. If Israel were completely dependent on the U.S., one can assume that there would not have been peace with Egypt or Jordan, and that the Oslo Accords would never have come into existence. At the end of the day, both the U.S. and Israel understand this. For this reason, one can assume that if the talks with Syria bear fruit, they will retroactively win the blessing and support of the U.S., and there may be a need for an American push in the final stretch. But the strategic decisions have so far been made here, in Jerusalem and Damascus, just as they were previously made in Jerusalem, Cairo, Tunis and Amman. America is important, but ultimately, local interests prevail - and that's to the good. Bookmark to del.icio.us   A staunch ally Obama to AIPAC: I'll do everything to prevent Iran from obtaining nukes. Pro-Israel Nazis German group condemns anti-Semitism, says Holocaust 'unjustifiable.'

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