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Waiting for Nasrallah By Yossi Melman Despite the impression created this week by various TV reports that it would be only a matter of days, the prisoner exchange with Hezbollah is still a long way off. Hassan Nasrallah said this week "very soon Samir Kuntar and his brothers will be with you." Reporters, eager to make headlines, rushed to conclude that the deal had already been formulated. It seemed the press forgot that Nasrallah has announced at least four times in the last four years that Kuntar is on the way home. "These are fragile, delicate and complex negotiations, and ups and downs are to be expected," stressed a security source. Four people are handling the contacts and are experts on the details of the deal that is in the works. Nasrallah, the secretary general of Hezbollah, who controls the negotiations regarding this matter, instructed one of his aides, whose name has not been disclosed, and the aide met in Beirut with the international mediator, Gerhard Conrad. Conrad formerly headed the German foreign intelligence service (BND) office in Damascus and was loaned to the United Nations for the mediation assignment. Advertisement Conrad forwarded the messages from Nasrallah and his aide to Ofer Dekel, the prime minister's point man for negotiating the release of the captive soldiers. In addition to the confidential messages, the two sides have no problem using spin and psychological warfare and leak tendentious information intended to influence the other side and public opinion at home. The negotiations are not symmetric. Nasrallah is not accountable to anyone. He makes decisions on his own, though they are influenced by the Iranian leadership and to a small extent by pressure from the families of the five Lebanese whom Israel is holding. Dekel not only must report to Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, but also depends on the grace of government decisions and must take into account the families of Eldad Regev, Ehud Goldwasser, Ron Arad and Smadar Haran. One release On Sunday, Israel will, through the International Red Cross, transfer to Lebanon Nissim Nasser, who has finished serving a six-year sentence for minor security violations. Nasser, the son of a Jewish mother who converted to Islam, moved from Israel to Lebanon for financial reasons. For fear his family in Lebanon would be harmed, he says, he agreed to gather intelligence for Hezbollah. The impression that his release is part of the deal is not right. Hezbollah considers him small fry though it will celebrate his release. Israel considered holding on to him in administrative detention, but legal experts said it would be difficult to defend such a decision before the High Court of Justice. Israel expects a written response from Hezbollah soon. A lack of confidence has both sides demanding that any understanding be put in writing. Israel relayed a clear message to Hezbollah (first published in Haaretz 10 days ago): Israel will not agree to the release of Palestinian prisoners, and Hezbollah must make do with its four fighters, who have been held by Israel since the Second Lebanon War; the terrorist Samir Kuntar; and eight bodies of Hezbollah men buried here. Nasrallah, whose power was bolstered in recent events in Lebanon, is deliberating. Nasrallah formerly demanded the release of thousands of Palestinian prisoners. If he insists this time, the deal will become stuck and revealed as a hollow promise about freeing Kuntar. But he won't have the glory of serving as a "liberator of Palestinians." The German magazine Der Spiegel, in its online edition, reported yesterday, based on Lebanese sources close to Hezbollah, that Nasrallah is on the verge of handing Israel a positive answer. The Israeli dilemma is no less difficult. The government can explain to the public that it subdued Nasrallah. The deal was achieved for the low price of five Lebanese prisoners and - for the first time - Israel refused to release Palestinian prisoners in a deal with Nasrallah. But the government will have to change the decision it made before the release of businessman Elhanan Tennenbaum deal in order to release Kuntar. That decision in 2004 said Kuntar would be freed only in exchange for a sign of life from Ron Arad or "scientific proof" that he is not alive. Most defense establishment experts maintain that Arad is not alive, and Hezbollah has a strong interest in trading information about him. That it has not done so is considered a sign the organization cannot provide such information. But defense officials also believe Hezbollah knows more about Arad than it is willing to reveal. In no circumstance would Israel release Kuntar unless Hezbollah provides a solid file explaining what it has done in the search for him. That would be a face-saving for Israel. And another thing is clear. Only on the day the deal is carried out will Israel know whether Regev and Goldwasser are alive or dead. Though the prevailing assumption is that both or at least one of them is not alive. The government of Israel will have to decide whether to release Kuntar and possibly receive only the captives' bodies or postpone the deal (in which there is a slim chance the two or one of them is alive) and turn Karnit Goldwasser, Ehud's wife, into a chained woman (aguna) like Tami Arad. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Scuba SMS Ultrasonic sound wave technology revolutionizes underwater communication. 'Hip-hop violinist' Israeli violinist participates in New York event, celebrating Israel's 60th anniversary.

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