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Nuclear exposure on the River Wye By Reuven Pedatzur Tags: Israel Of all the places in the world, Jimmy Carter chose a book fair on the banks of the River Wye in Wales as the spot from which to put an official end to Israel's nuclear ambiguity. One cannot exaggerate the importance of the former American president's statement that Israel has 150 nuclear bombs. More than all the estimates and leaks about the Israeli nuclear program over the past five decades, Carter's comments on Sunday give official cachet to Israel's status as a nuclear power. This time the speaker is not another scientist basing his assessments on calculations of the output from the Dimona reactor, or a news report with an unclear source. Israel's nuclear weapons arsenal is being revealed by a former American president, someone who, upon entering the White House, adopted the policy of covert American nuclear cooperation with Israel, which was formulated four decades ago. The principles of the nuclear understandings between Israel and the United States were agreed upon in 1969, when prime minister Golda Meir met with U.S. president Richard Nixon in Washington. That was the first time the United States officially accepted Israel's status as a nuclear power, while agreeing not to publicly reveal details about its weapons. Israel committed not to carry out nuclear testing or declare that it has nuclear weapons. For their part, the Americans promised not to pressure Israel to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Advertisement Every American president since, and every senior administration official who knew the details of the Israeli nuclear program, kept silent and effectively adopted Israel's official policy: that it would not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle East. Now Carter comes along and changes the rules of the game. After all, he doesn't need to rely on foreign sources or unproven conjecture. When he served as president, he knew exactly what Israel had in its storehouses. Jimmy Carter is not guessing or estimating. He knows. In his speech at the Wales book fair, Carter did not make it clear whether he was citing the number of bombs Israel had when he left the White House in January 1981, or describing the current size of Israel's nuclear arsenal. This doesn't much affect the core of the matter - Israel's exposure as a nuclear power. When it comes to strategic considerations by Israel and its opponents, it doesn't matter whether there are 150, 200 or 300 bombs. If Carter was referring to the size of Israel's nuclear arsenal when he left the White House, it is possible to figure out its current size from the information he provided. To do so one needs to use foreign sources, which state that Israel produces enough plutonium to build approximately five nuclear bombs per year. If that's the case, then Israel has built an estimated 150 more bombs since 1981, putting the size of Israel's nuclear arsenal at some 300 bombs. But this is merely an intellectual exercise. What is truly important is the fact that a former American president has exposed Israel as a nuclear power. One can assume that Iran will now be able to make use of Carter's comments in order to point to the double standard of the Western world, which is prepared to accept a nuclear Israel but makes a great effort to prevent Iran from going nuclear. However, the more important ramification of Carter's statement is the reinforcement of Israel's deterrent image. In the future, if Iran does acquire nuclear weapons, this image will be of critical importance in the process of developing mutual deterrence. Bookmark to del.icio.us   In the VIP If you want Olmert, pay for 'first class' hotels and flights. Don't mention the war The first to mention Nazis or the Holocaust automatically loses.   1.   Carter gave Iran Khomeini; Obama will give Iran nukes 09:34  |  Mushma Oule 28/05/08   2.   What`s The Point? 09:39  |  Yosemite 28/05/08   3.   HE REGRETS HIS DECISION TO HELP ISRAEL 09:52  |  indrajaya 28/05/08   4.   Double standard??? Israel never signed the NPT 09:54  |  Binyamin Dissen 28/05/08   5.   Carter is a disgrace to the United States 09:55  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 28/05/08   6.   j. carter an untrustworthy man and president 09:55  |  victor hardman 28/05/08   7.   Israel: The games are sometimes absurd 09:57  |  Natallie Durson 28/05/08   8.   Much Ado About Nothing....... 09:59  |  Swiss (Dino) 28/05/08   9.   Carter and nuclear honesty! 10:06  |  Vinegar Hill 28/05/08   10.   #6, victor hardman 10:16  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 28/05/08   11.   #8, Dino, as usual you miss the point 10:20  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 28/05/08   12.   Mentioning 150 warheads for what? 10:27  |  Michael 28/05/08   13.   Significant difference 10:35  |  Sherlock Holmes 28/05/08   14.   #4 you make a good point 10:38  |  fadi 28/05/08   15.   what about Olmert? 10:42  |  fadi 28/05/08   16.   # 11 Cipora Julianna Kohn 10:46  |  Swiss (Dino) 28/05/08   17.   Binyamin Dissen - A Standard-Bearer! 10:46  |  PADDY 28/05/08   18.   Act of Expiation 10:50  |  The Northern Wind 28/05/08   19.   israel does not like to show off 10:50  |  amos 28/05/08   20.   vinegar hill "a nuclear iran would restrain israel" 10:52  |  amos 28/05/08   21.   YOU CAN`T STOP CARTER FROM NOW ON 10:53  |  indrajaya 28/05/08   22.   swiss dino would use any tool at hand to strike israel 11:05  |  amos 28/05/08   23.   #16, Dino 11:07  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 28/05/08   24.   #19, amos 11:09  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 28/05/08   25.   # 23 Cipora Julianna Kohn 11:39  |  Swiss (Dino) 28/05/08   26.   #5 Cipora Julianna Kohn 11:45  |  Chris Linthwaite 28/05/08   27.   With oil at 140$, Iran also affords to build nuclear reactors 11:48  |  Aounist 28/05/08   28.   swiss dino all this self righteousness 11:49  |  amos 28/05/08   29.   # 22 "amos" Shalom, shalom, shalom.....:) 11:54  |  Swiss (Dino) 28/05/08   30.   Sharon - a disgrace to Israel 12:00  |  Lori 28/05/08   31.   A fact that both US and Israel and West chose to ignore 12:05  |  El-Birawi 28/05/08   32.   The Reason For Nuclear Ambiguity=Help The Arabs 12:19  |  dyinglikeflies 28/05/08   33.   Great Job Carter... Finally TRUTH about WMDs 12:35  |  Tupac 28/05/08   34.   # 4 binyamin 12:36  |  Axel 28/05/08   35.   sherlock holmes 13 13:09  |  potobac 28/05/08   36.   CARTER Vindictively keeps putting the boot in.Lack of background 13:11  |  PETER SM 28/05/08   37.   INDRAJAYA Forget what Israel wants.Russia& China do not want it 13:21  |  PETER SM 28/05/08   38.   Oh. I thought Vanunu was lying 13:40  |  examiner 28/05/08   39.   examiner "well i never" 13:51  |  amos 28/05/08   40.   # 2 Yosemite.......well, if I had to place a bet, 13:54  |  Lynn 28/05/08   41.   potobac when we were in the most terrible danger 13:56  |  amos 28/05/08   42.   TUPAC Why ignore the intelligence Ahmed Chalabi gave 13:58  |  PETER SM 28/05/08   43.   EXAMINER who said Vanunu was or was not lying 14:02  |  PETER SM 28/05/08   44.   # 38 examiner 14:04  |  Axel 28/05/08   45.   # 21 Indy....Do you really realize the implications 14:05  |  Lynn 28/05/08   46.   Criminality of "Nuclear Exposure" 14:08  |  Denis Bieber 28/05/08   47.   AXEL Who was jailed just for telling the truth.Spies tell truth 14:14  |  PETER SM 28/05/08   48.   Get over it 14:17  |  W 28/05/08   49.   axel "in israel people are not jailed for lying but for 14:20  |  amos 28/05/08   50.   #6 Victor Hardman 14:25  |  Janice 28/05/08   51.   Why expose Israel on the River Wye..? 14:29  |  Stephen. 28/05/08   52.   POTOBAC please give your official "sotto voce" 14:37  |  PETER SM 28/05/08   53.   Carter delivers a warning to Iran regime not to build nukes 14:46  |  Realist 28/05/08   54.   #26 Chris Linthwaite does some channelling 15:06  |  Johnboy 28/05/08   55.   Lynn-`A world armed to the teeth` #45 15:13  |  Joihn Syracuse 28/05/08   56.   # 20 Amos 15:19  |  Vinegar Hill 28/05/08   57.   Israeli is affraid of his deterrend image 15:29  |  Ben 28/05/08   58.   A tempest in a teapot 15:29  |  Tosefta 28/05/08   59.   # 46 dennis 15:37  |  Axel 28/05/08   60.   Tosefta #58 15:40  |  Roo 28/05/08   61.   Carter 15:44  |  Julian 28/05/08   62.   the arab world willl soon seek to be under israel`s nuclear um- 15:46  |  POP 28/05/08   63.   the arab world willl soon seek to be under israel`s nuclear um- 15:46  |  POP 28/05/08   64.   A new legend? (Roo #60) 15:50  |  Tosefta 28/05/08   65.   A new legend? (Roo #60) 15:50  |  Tosefta 28/05/08   66.   Israel and the bomb 16:01  |  Michael N 28/05/08   67.   Carter bitter and hateful 16:06  |  Nathaniel 28/05/08   68.   Carter`s Senility 16:07  |  Shimshon 28/05/08   69.   NPT violations 16:14  |  Mark 28/05/08   70.   Tosefta #64&65 16:23  |  THK 28/05/08   71.   Carter, tell us more! 16:23  |  Chris 28/05/08   72.   Official? Jimmy Carter Is A Private Citizen 16:42  |  Jeff Northridge 28/05/08   73.   vinegar hill the common denominator 16:43  |  amos 28/05/08   74.   Tosefta 16:58  |  Roo 28/05/08   75.   #50 janice needs to research the presidents oath. 17:02  |  victor hardman 28/05/08   76.   # 61 julian 17:08  |  Axel 28/05/08   77.   Israel only defends itself 17:16  |  T. Traub 28/05/08   78.   Roo #74 17:24  |  Tosefta 28/05/08   79.   How can Carter know that Israel still has nuclear weapons? 17:35  |  McQueen 28/05/08   80.   Carter is fed up with Israel`s nuclear blackmail 17:43  |  Palestinian in UK 28/05/08   81.   #79 McQueen- and your logic is? 17:45  |  Michael N 28/05/08   82.   #4 binyamin, every day! 17:46  |  Space 28/05/08   83.   peter sm 52 17:47  |  potobac 28/05/08   84.   Mark # 69 The NPT Didn`t Exist Then 17:49  |  Jeff Northridge 28/05/08   85.   victor hardman 75 17:52  |  potobac 28/05/08   86.   #85 potobac do try reading the oath of a president ! 18:01  |  victor hardman 28/05/08   87.   # 73 Amos 18:03  |  Vinegar Hill 28/05/08   88.   Tosefta 18:09  |  Roo 28/05/08   89.   #54 Johnboy 18:21  |  Chris Linthwaite 28/05/08   90.   Lynn, has Israel ever sold nuclear technology? 18:24  |  Ibrahim 28/05/08   91.   #84 Jeff Northridge good points clearly made 18:29  |  Chris Linthwaite 28/05/08   92.   Roo #88 18:31  |  Tosefta 28/05/08   93.   # 90 ibrahim 18:48  |  Axel 28/05/08   94.   # 55 John Syracuse.....none of that changes my position 18:49  |  Lynn 28/05/08   95.   to Paddy 18:51  |  TAZ 28/05/08   96.   When Americans ellect a clown for 19:04  |  TOMY 28/05/08   97.   Tosefta 92 19:04  |  Roo 28/05/08   98.   Ibrahim #90 re Lynn 19:12  |  Roo 28/05/08   99.   Everybody is ready to forcefully argue any subject 19:12  |  17 28/05/08   100.   roo 19:16  |  kange 28/05/08   101.   roo the libyan foreign minister 19:18  |  kange 28/05/08   102.   Carter to trial 19:20  |  howiej 28/05/08   103.   vinegar what are the issues apart of the hatred 19:22  |  amos 28/05/08   104.   #75 Hardman you need to do the research 19:23  |  Janice 28/05/08   105.   vinegar hill "nothing sensible to say" 19:26  |  amos 28/05/08   106.   vinegar "expulsion policies at the time" 19:29  |  amos 28/05/08   107.   Iran (Chris Linthwaite #91) 19:35  |  Tosefta 28/05/08   108.   roo and simha dinitz 19:36  |  kange 28/05/08   109.   roo "hersh says israel blackmailed the usa" 19:40  |  kange 28/05/08   110.   to 104: President Bush`s oath of office 19:42  |  Palestinian in UK 28/05/08   111.   Good for Jimmy 19:43  |  Marilyn 28/05/08   112.   Peter SM, read Nemesis by Chalmers Johnston 19:46  |  Marilyn 28/05/08   113.   roo "israel threatened to use nuclear weapons 19:46  |  kange 28/05/08   114.   Carter did not say anything new. He did put a number on the 19:47  |  Jozef 28/05/08   115.   marilyn "israel sold nuke information to pakistan" 19:53  |  amos 28/05/08   116.   Carter a terrible president for many reasons , this is just one 20:05  |  jj 28/05/08   117.   you sure thats you, POP, that message 62 was way too sensible 20:06  |  jj 28/05/08   118.   To CJK (#11) - perhaps more to the point 20:07  |  Morris Valentine 28/05/08   119.   A slip of the tounge or the calculated `risk` 20:07  |  TonyL 28/05/08   120.   Palestinian in UK, blackmail? what are you smoking across 20:14  |  jj 28/05/08   121.   kange on quoting Lybian officials... 20:15  |  Ibrahim 28/05/08   122.   6 Vctor - What Oath would that be? 20:29  |  Mark of Lewiston 28/05/08   123.   11 Cipora - Please Explain 20:31  |  Mark of Lewiston 28/05/08   124.   75 Just for Victor Hardman 20:47  |  Mark of Lewiston 28/05/08   125.   israeli nukes 20:59  |  John 28/05/08   126.   Cipora J Kohn re:the oath of office 21:10  |  American in NY 28/05/08   127.   Like This Is A Surprise? DUH! 21:16  |  Nukemall 28/05/08   128.   Janioce # 104 21:17  |  American in NY 28/05/08   129.   open letter to senile ex nuke-engineer carter 21:22  |  bernie 28/05/08   130.   mark lewiston carter is of no interest to most israelis 21:30  |  amos 28/05/08   131.   reuven pedatzur 21:42  |  yosef 28/05/08   132.   #5 CPK God bless President Carter ... 22:20  |  American 28/05/08   133.   Carter helped Israel and the Middle East 22:20  |  BIG 28/05/08   134.   Carter`s actions 22:23  |  C Johnson 28/05/08   135.   #124 mark of lewiston does not understand the all encompassing me 22:28  |  victor hardman 28/05/08   136.   #104 janice and the meaning of the oath of office 22:33  |  victor hardman 28/05/08   137.   Is Carter anti semetic or just anti Israel? 22:40  |  Alan the real one 28/05/08   138.   re 16 It was no slip swiss dino 22:44  |  Alan the real one 28/05/08   139.   #118, MV 22:47  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 28/05/08   140.   #134 22:52  |  rak 28/05/08   141.   I fully support Carter. 23:10  |  Deborah 28/05/08   142.   Carter is a hero. 23:13  |  Deborah 28/05/08   143.   #123, Mark of Lewiston 23:15  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 28/05/08   144.   #123 Cipora Julianna Kohn re Mark of Lew`. 23:30  |  Roo 28/05/08   145.   #123 Cipora Julianna Kohn re Mark of Lew`. 23:30  |  Roo 28/05/08   146.   amos #130 -go back to sleep 23:42  |  Roo 28/05/08   147.   Israel has Nukes?! Likely. Will it use them? Likely not. 00:07  |  JP 29/05/08   148.   roo most of those who respond to carter are old age pensioners 00:20  |  kange 29/05/08   149.   roo "get with the program" 00:22  |  kange 29/05/08   150.   roo "keeps the boredom away" 00:24  |  kange 29/05/08   151.   would Israel stop clusterbombs? 00:25  |  ben 29/05/08   152.   he was the most incompetent, dangerous president ever. worst one 00:34  |  ralph 29/05/08   153.   made worse or created every problem america faced.most incompeten 00:36  |  ralph 29/05/08   154.   # 138 Alan, to call a "state secret", what each and every...... 00:36  |  Swiss (Dino) 29/05/08   155.   Amos, Victor, Cipora 00:50  |  Mark of Lewiston 29/05/08   156.   alan the real one 137 00:55  |  potobac 29/05/08   157.   v hardman re the meaning of the oath of office 01:04  |  potobac 29/05/08   158.   Carter who? 01:06  |  Zvi 29/05/08   159.   potobac in that case you are just hearing voices 01:12  |  PETER SM 29/05/08   160.   Carter 01:15  |  siegfried buchwalte 29/05/08   161.   carters comments changed nothing 01:18  |  zionist forever 29/05/08   162.   Marylin nonsense.The say things that were attributed to others 01:19  |  PETER SM 29/05/08   163.   DEBORAH actually Israels OFFICIAL policy was the oppositte 01:25  |  PETER SM 29/05/08   164.   Carter only brought old news 01:52  |  Edith 29/05/08   165.   Hardman are you an American citizen? 01:59  |  Janice 29/05/08   166.   DEBORAH Does Carter know whether Israel has 150, or no nukes NOW? 02:00  |  PETER SM 29/05/08   167.   # 134 02:16  |  Axel 29/05/08   168.   # 148 Carter also released Bin Laden into atmosphere: 02:50  |  17 29/05/08   169.   Carter and Pollard 03:06  |  julie 29/05/08   170.   # 105 amos ...al vinegre que es un catholic,but.. 03:21  |  just me 29/05/08   171.   #149 Peter SM. About Vanunu. 03:25  |  Maureen Ann 29/05/08   172.   # 137 Alan the real one.Is Carter anti semetic or just anti Israe 03:29  |  just me 29/05/08   173.   The Carter Legacy 03:45  |  Arie 29/05/08   174.   To CJK (#139) 03:53  |  Morris Valentine 29/05/08   175.   # 148 - Carter released bin Laden into atmosphere: 04:02  |  17 29/05/08   176.   Swiss (Dino)...lol 04:36  |  mikeber 29/05/08   177.   It`s about time someone calls Israel out 04:54  |  betz55 29/05/08   178.   Bush free Polard now 05:13  |  Rw 29/05/08   179.   #157, MV, regarding laws on classification 05:49  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 29/05/08   180.   Dissin and standards 05:51  |  Truth 29/05/08   181.   Peter Sm and official hypocricy 05:53  |  Truth 29/05/08   182.   #157, MV post script 05:55  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 29/05/08   183.   Peter SM and numbers 05:56  |  Truth 29/05/08   184.   "TRUTH"?? Israel has NOT introduced use of Nukes.Your friends 07:42  |  PETER SM 29/05/08   185.   to peter SM 07:44  |  mind-boggling 29/05/08   186.   #161 CPK 08:34  |  American 29/05/08   187.   #153 janice still thinks you can seperate the us from the rest of 08:55  |  victor hardman 29/05/08   188.   #77 delusional? 09:05  |  SASSE 29/05/08   189.   Victor Hardman, The real misfit is Israel 09:23  |  Dutch 29/05/08   190.   Deborah supports you Carter, give back that Saudi gold you don`t 10:11  |  amused 29/05/08   191.   Axel your hatred twists the truth 10:13  |  Aby 29/05/08   192.   #172 doris the misfit find another she says ? 11:00  |  victor hardman 29/05/08   193.   To CJK (#182) 19:01  |  Morris Valentine 29/05/08   194.   CJK # 182 Nothing immoral about Carters actions 19:50  |  American in NY 30/05/08   195.   #194, ANY 09:27  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 31/05/08

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