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Nuclear exposure on the River Wye
By Reuven Pedatzur
Tags: Israel

Of all the places in the world, Jimmy Carter chose a book fair on the banks of the River Wye in Wales as the spot from which to put an official end to Israel's nuclear ambiguity. One cannot exaggerate the importance of the former American president's statement that Israel has 150 nuclear bombs. More than all the estimates and leaks about the Israeli nuclear program over the past five decades, Carter's comments on Sunday give official cachet to Israel's status as a nuclear power.

This time the speaker is not another scientist basing his assessments on calculations of the output from the Dimona reactor, or a news report with an unclear source. Israel's nuclear weapons arsenal is being revealed by a former American president, someone who, upon entering the White House, adopted the policy of covert American nuclear cooperation with Israel, which was formulated four decades ago.

The principles of the nuclear understandings between Israel and the United States were agreed upon in 1969, when prime minister Golda Meir met with U.S. president Richard Nixon in Washington. That was the first time the United States officially accepted Israel's status as a nuclear power, while agreeing not to publicly reveal details about its weapons. Israel committed not to carry out nuclear testing or declare that it has nuclear weapons. For their part, the Americans promised not to pressure Israel to sign the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
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Every American president since, and every senior administration official who knew the details of the Israeli nuclear program, kept silent and effectively adopted Israel's official policy: that it would not be the first to introduce nuclear weapons into the Middle East. Now Carter comes along and changes the rules of the game. After all, he doesn't need to rely on foreign sources or unproven conjecture. When he served as president, he knew exactly what Israel had in its storehouses. Jimmy Carter is not guessing or estimating. He knows.

In his speech at the Wales book fair, Carter did not make it clear whether he was citing the number of bombs Israel had when he left the White House in January 1981, or describing the current size of Israel's nuclear arsenal. This doesn't much affect the core of the matter - Israel's exposure as a nuclear power. When it comes to strategic considerations by Israel and its opponents, it doesn't matter whether there are 150, 200 or 300 bombs.

If Carter was referring to the size of Israel's nuclear arsenal when he left the White House, it is possible to figure out its current size from the information he provided. To do so one needs to use foreign sources, which state that Israel produces enough plutonium to build approximately five nuclear bombs per year. If that's the case, then Israel has built an estimated 150 more bombs since 1981, putting the size of Israel's nuclear arsenal at some 300 bombs. But this is merely an intellectual exercise. What is truly important is the fact that a former American president has exposed Israel as a nuclear power.

One can assume that Iran will now be able to make use of Carter's comments in order to point to the double standard of the Western world, which is prepared to accept a nuclear Israel but makes a great effort to prevent Iran from going nuclear.

However, the more important ramification of Carter's statement is the reinforcement of Israel's deterrent image. In the future, if Iran does acquire nuclear weapons, this image will be of critical importance in the process of developing mutual deterrence.
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  1.   Carter gave Iran Khomeini; Obama will give Iran nukes 09:34  |  Mushma Oule 28/05/08
  2.   What`s The Point? 09:39  |  Yosemite 28/05/08
  3.   HE REGRETS HIS DECISION TO HELP ISRAEL 09:52  |  indrajaya 28/05/08
  4.   Double standard??? Israel never signed the NPT 09:54  |  Binyamin Dissen 28/05/08
  5.   Carter is a disgrace to the United States 09:55  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 28/05/08
  6.   j. carter an untrustworthy man and president 09:55  |  victor hardman 28/05/08
  7.   Israel: The games are sometimes absurd 09:57  |  Natallie Durson 28/05/08
  8.   Much Ado About Nothing....... 09:59  |  Swiss (Dino) 28/05/08
  9.   Carter and nuclear honesty! 10:06  |  Vinegar Hill 28/05/08
  10.   #6, victor hardman 10:16  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 28/05/08
  11.   #8, Dino, as usual you miss the point 10:20  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 28/05/08
  12.   Mentioning 150 warheads for what? 10:27  |  Michael 28/05/08
  13.   Significant difference 10:35  |  Sherlock Holmes 28/05/08
  14.   #4 you make a good point 10:38  |  fadi 28/05/08
  15.   what about Olmert? 10:42  |  fadi 28/05/08
  16.   # 11 Cipora Julianna Kohn 10:46  |  Swiss (Dino) 28/05/08
  17.   Binyamin Dissen - A Standard-Bearer! 10:46  |  PADDY 28/05/08
  18.   Act of Expiation 10:50  |  The Northern Wind 28/05/08
  19.   israel does not like to show off 10:50  |  amos 28/05/08
  20.   vinegar hill "a nuclear iran would restrain israel" 10:52  |  amos 28/05/08
  21.   YOU CAN`T STOP CARTER FROM NOW ON 10:53  |  indrajaya 28/05/08
  22.   swiss dino would use any tool at hand to strike israel 11:05  |  amos 28/05/08
  23.   #16, Dino 11:07  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 28/05/08
  24.   #19, amos 11:09  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 28/05/08
  25.   # 23 Cipora Julianna Kohn 11:39  |  Swiss (Dino) 28/05/08
  26.   #5 Cipora Julianna Kohn 11:45  |  Chris Linthwaite 28/05/08
  27.   With oil at 140$, Iran also affords to build nuclear reactors 11:48  |  Aounist 28/05/08
  28.   swiss dino all this self righteousness 11:49  |  amos 28/05/08
  29.   # 22 "amos" Shalom, shalom, shalom.....:) 11:54  |  Swiss (Dino) 28/05/08
  30.   Sharon - a disgrace to Israel 12:00  |  Lori 28/05/08
  31.   A fact that both US and Israel and West chose to ignore 12:05  |  El-Birawi 28/05/08
  32.   The Reason For Nuclear Ambiguity=Help The Arabs 12:19  |  dyinglikeflies 28/05/08
  33.   Great Job Carter... Finally TRUTH about WMDs 12:35  |  Tupac 28/05/08
  34.   # 4 binyamin 12:36  |  Axel 28/05/08
  35.   sherlock holmes 13 13:09  |  potobac 28/05/08
  36.   CARTER Vindictively keeps putting the boot in.Lack of background 13:11  |  PETER SM 28/05/08
  37.   INDRAJAYA Forget what Israel wants.Russia& China do not want it 13:21  |  PETER SM 28/05/08
  38.   Oh. I thought Vanunu was lying 13:40  |  examiner 28/05/08
  39.   examiner "well i never" 13:51  |  amos 28/05/08
  40.   # 2 Yosemite.......well, if I had to place a bet, 13:54  |  Lynn 28/05/08
  41.   potobac when we were in the most terrible danger 13:56  |  amos 28/05/08
  42.   TUPAC Why ignore the intelligence Ahmed Chalabi gave 13:58  |  PETER SM 28/05/08
  43.   EXAMINER who said Vanunu was or was not lying 14:02  |  PETER SM 28/05/08
  44.   # 38 examiner 14:04  |  Axel 28/05/08
  45.   # 21 Indy....Do you really realize the implications 14:05  |  Lynn 28/05/08
  46.   Criminality of "Nuclear Exposure" 14:08  |  Denis Bieber 28/05/08
  47.   AXEL Who was jailed just for telling the truth.Spies tell truth 14:14  |  PETER SM 28/05/08
  48.   Get over it 14:17  |  W 28/05/08
  49.   axel "in israel people are not jailed for lying but for 14:20  |  amos 28/05/08
  50.   #6 Victor Hardman 14:25  |  Janice 28/05/08
  51.   Why expose Israel on the River Wye..? 14:29  |  Stephen. 28/05/08
  52.   POTOBAC please give your official "sotto voce" 14:37  |  PETER SM 28/05/08
  53.   Carter delivers a warning to Iran regime not to build nukes 14:46  |  Realist 28/05/08
  54.   #26 Chris Linthwaite does some channelling 15:06  |  Johnboy 28/05/08
  55.   Lynn-`A world armed to the teeth` #45 15:13  |  Joihn Syracuse 28/05/08
  56.   # 20 Amos 15:19  |  Vinegar Hill 28/05/08
  57.   Israeli is affraid of his deterrend image 15:29  |  Ben 28/05/08
  58.   A tempest in a teapot 15:29  |  Tosefta 28/05/08
  59.   # 46 dennis 15:37  |  Axel 28/05/08
  60.   Tosefta #58 15:40  |  Roo 28/05/08
  61.   Carter 15:44  |  Julian 28/05/08
  62.   the arab world willl soon seek to be under israel`s nuclear um- 15:46  |  POP 28/05/08
  63.   the arab world willl soon seek to be under israel`s nuclear um- 15:46  |  POP 28/05/08
  64.   A new legend? (Roo #60) 15:50  |  Tosefta 28/05/08
  65.   A new legend? (Roo #60) 15:50  |  Tosefta 28/05/08
  66.   Israel and the bomb 16:01  |  Michael N 28/05/08
  67.   Carter bitter and hateful 16:06  |  Nathaniel 28/05/08
  68.   Carter`s Senility 16:07  |  Shimshon 28/05/08
  69.   NPT violations 16:14  |  Mark 28/05/08
  70.   Tosefta #64&65 16:23  |  THK 28/05/08
  71.   Carter, tell us more! 16:23  |  Chris 28/05/08
  72.   Official? Jimmy Carter Is A Private Citizen 16:42  |  Jeff Northridge 28/05/08