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Israel says Hezbollah exchange deal is close
By Amos Harel, Barak Ravid, Yossi Melman and Yoav Stern

Significant progress appears to have been achieved in recent days in the indirect talks between Israel and Hezbollah on a deal for the release of the two reservists abducted shortly before the Second Lebanon War.

The deal is expected to involve the release of six Lebanese held in Israel, including the convicted terrorist Samir Kuntar, and the corpses of 10 Hezbollah fighters, in return for the Israeli soldiers Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev.
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Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah said yesterday in a prerecorded address to the Lebanese public on the commemoration of the 60th anniversary of the Palestinian nakba [catastrophe] that "very soon Samir Kuntar and his brothers will be among us."

Diplomatic sources in Beirut reported significant progress in the talks yesterday.

The negotiations with Hezbollah have been held through a German mediator, Gerhard Konrad. Most recently, Israel made Hezbollah a "final offer" which included the release of Kuntar, Nasim Nisr and four Hezbollah fighters that were imprisoned during the 2006 war in Lebanon. Nisr is a Lebanese Jew who immigrated to Israel and was convicted in a plea bargain of spying for Hezbollah.

The offer does not include the release of Palestinian prisoners, a prerequisite of Hezbollah for some time. The relatively low Israeli offer suggests that officials here do not believe that the two abducted soldiers are alive, even though officially they have not been declared dead.

Israeli sources close to the negotiations confirmed yesterday that progress had been achieved.

However, a senior security source told Haaretz last night that "we must not be impressed by Nasrallah's declarations. He has said similar things in the past."

According to the security source, some of the more optimistic reports in the media originate in manipulation or assumptions that are baseless. "This is a very complex deal that we are still uncertain whether will take place. Most of its elements are not known to the press. The talks are ongoing - and we have no intention to make any updates to anyone at this time."

Lebanese sources said yesterday that Nisr's family has heard from the Red Cross that he will be released on Sunday. Officials in Israel informed his attorney in Israel, Smadar Ben Natan, that he will be transferred to the custody of the Red Cross on Sunday at the crossing in Rosh Hanikra.

Kuntar's brother, Basam, told AFP yesterday that he is expecting the release of his brother. "There are encouraging signs," he said.

During his address yesterday, Nasrallah did not offer any further details on the prisoner exchange, but Reuters reported earlier that the German mediator had been to Beirut last week and met with senior figures in the radical Shi'ite organization.

Meanwhile, another source involved in the negotiations over the release of the two captive soldiers said "a prisoner exchange deal with Hezbollah is yet far off."

According to the source, Israel has not received any information in recent days to indicate that a deal is in fact within reach.

"Nasrallah doesn't coordinate his speeches with Israel," the source said.

Four years ago, Nasrallah proclaimed that Kuntar would be released in the second part of the exchange deal that saw another Israeli Hezbollah captive, Elhanan Tenenbaum, returned to Israel. However, after Nasrallah failed to fulfill his part of the deal, to provide Israel with information regarding the missing navigator Ron Arad, Israel responded in kind and refused to release Kuntar.

The source said that one could take solace in the fact that Nasrallah, in the sole sentence in which he referred to any prisoner exchange, did not mention the release of Palestinian prisoners, as he has consistently done in the past. Nasrallah's demand for the release of Palestinian prisoners held in Israel has been the main obstacle standing in the way of an agreement between Israel and Hezbollah.

The source also said that Israel cannot expect, in light of Hezbollah's past behavior, specific information about whether the prisoners are alive before the exchange. "Unfortunately," he said, "we will know at the very last minute whether the soldiers are returned alive or in coffins."
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