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Last update - 10:39 26/05/2008 ANALYSIS / Price of quiet in Lebanon is Hezbollah in power By Zvi Bar'el Tags: Syria, Lebanon  The smiles, handshakes and congratulations that followed the election of Lebanese President Michel Suleiman yesterday were unable to erase questions and fears over what Hezbollah has in store for the country, and the region as a whole. That is because the lovely principle of "no victor, no vanquished," as the emir of Qatar described the deal reached in Doha that allowed for Suleiman's election, does not reflect reality. Lebanon did manage to engage the emergency brake before spiraling into civil war, and can even look forward to a period of relative quiet. But the price is liable to be Hezbollah's long-term de facto control of Lebanon. Suleiman's election is not the product of a democratic compromise between a majority and an opposition; it is the product of threats and violence. The fancy swearing-in ceremony yesterday could not have taken place without the agreement of Hezbollah, which delayed the selection of a president by seven months. Hezbollah conditioned its acceptance on the establishment of a national unity government in which it and its partners will have 11 ministers. This grants Hezbollah veto power over key government decisions, since the Lebanese constitution requires important decisions to be approved by a two-thirds majority. Advertisement Hezbollah also won a change in the elections law, which gives its supporters a much greater chance of getting their candidates into parliament in the election planned for next year. In addition, the question of Hezbollah's right to function as an autonomous militia has been removed from the agenda, replaced by a declaration that Hezbollah's guns will never again be aimed at fellow Lebanese. And without the agreement of the Lebanese government, any international attempt to disarm Hezbollah will be seen as illegitimate. Suleiman thanked Arab leaders, especially the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad Bin Khalifa al-Thani. But without the agreements reached between Syria, Iran and Hezbollah, Suleiman would not have been elected president. Hezbollah also determined the most convenient place for negotiations - not Saudi Arabia or Egypt, which are allies of the Lebanese government, but Qatar, whose emir was the first Arab leader to visit a Shi'ite neighborhood in Beirut that had been bombed by Israel, and who donated a lot of money to rebuild it. Hezbollah could have celebrated twice yesterday - once to mark eight years since the Israel Defense Forces withdrew from Lebanon, and a second time over having laid the cornerstone of its political domination of the country. Syria is not dissatisfied with this victory, but understands that Hezbollah is not a Syrian organization. Damascus may yet miss the days when it controlled Lebanon directly, without having to rely on a group whose loyalty depends on its own interests rather than being driven by ideology. Now, after Hezbollah's great political victory, it is no longer clear who depends on whom. In the Saudi-Iranian struggle over regional hegemony, Tehran can chalk up another victory. Bookmark to del.icio.us   His Majesty's envoy Report: Bahraini king taps Jewish woman lawmaker as envoy to U.S. Light unto the nations After five months of suspense, the hoopoe is crowned Israel's state bird.   1.   Tell us something new! 05:21  |  Victor 26/05/08   2.   Welcome to HEZBANON 06:08  |  Dan 26/05/08   3.   hezbollah. what a god gift to lebanon!! 06:36  |  bashar 26/05/08   4.   Wake up and smell the truth 07:19  |  Doc 26/05/08   5.   Product of the Lebanon 07:35  |  Freitz T. 26/05/08   6.   #1 Victor 08:48  |  Imad 26/05/08   7.   Iran and Hizbullah tactic in Lebanon. 09:11  |  Jean Van Daem 26/05/08   8.   Beirut kicks Tel Aviv ass 09:23  |  Ali 26/05/08   9.   Why don`t they just take over and be honest? 09:30  |  x-ray 26/05/08   10.   Doc what are you doing on an Israeli newssite 09:33  |  x-ray 26/05/08   11.   u got it all wrong... 09:55  |  Christian Lebanese 26/05/08   12.   Let`s face it, Israel: Hamas and Hezbollah are a reality...... 10:01  |  Swiss (Dino) 26/05/08   13.   think deeply irresponsibility has been replaced with responsibili 10:07  |  victor hardman 26/05/08   14.   Dino - You got an idea there 10:16  |  JK 26/05/08   15.   Hezbollah runs Lebanon? 10:17  |  Rick & TC 26/05/08   16.   the united nations accepted the border with lebanon 10:22  |  yair 26/05/08   17.   Who won what. 10:23  |  TonyL 26/05/08   18.   "unable to erase questions and fears" 10:28  |  Rowan 26/05/08   19.   #12, Dino 10:32  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 26/05/08   20.   livniin paris " we will do everything to achieve peace 10:38  |  yair 26/05/08   21.   # 14 JK 11:14  |  Swiss (Dino) 26/05/08   22.   Lebanon is an existential threat 11:15  |  Paul Khalil Estaphan 26/05/08   23.   # 19 Cipora Julianna Kohn 11:20  |  Swiss (Dino) 26/05/08   24.   Price of quiet in Lebanon 11:48  |  Ralph 26/05/08   25.   Hezb Alalh / Lebanon vs Zionist entity 12:19  |  Imad 26/05/08   26.   NO POWER WITHOUT GUNS 13:17  |  indrajaya 26/05/08   27.   Price of US Middle East Foreign Policy is... 13:19  |  MiddleStanian 26/05/08   28.   Bottom line of the matter 13:36  |  Dror 26/05/08   29.   Sleeping with the Enemy 14:01  |  Ronnie Wolman 26/05/08   30.   Price of Kadima in Power is Hizbullah and Hamas Victories 15:15  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 26/05/08   31.   Please... to all the world leave us alone 15:57  |  Jad 26/05/08   32.   # 31 Jad of Beirut......Your problems have just begun 16:13  |  Lynn 26/05/08   33.   # 7. You lost 16:14  |  najoure 26/05/08   34.   Birth pains. 16:20  |  Baz Mann 26/05/08   35.   UN Resolution 1701 BETRAYED Israel, Lebanon & the Free World 16:28  |  Linda Rivera 26/05/08   36.   Price of Quiet In Israel is Arab-Pals in Power 17:44  |  Joseph . E 26/05/08   37.   To X-ray 18:00  |  Doc 26/05/08   38.   Laughable, ridiculous analysis 18:40  |  tony benson 26/05/08   39.   #26 Idrajaya 18:47  |  Moshe 26/05/08   40.   Very satisfying. Very good for Lebanon 18:52  |  emad 26/05/08   41.   Price of quiet Israel = 1967 borders 18:54  |  Aounist 26/05/08   42.   Now Hezbollah responsible for keeping Lebanon peaceful 19:28  |  Afikoman 26/05/08   43.   Zvi Bar`el Rome wasn`t built in a day... 20:04  |  Dutch 26/05/08   44.   Fictional News 20:53  |  Zvaet 26/05/08   45.   To Joseph E. of Givatayim & all Jabo disciples 20:56  |  Afikoman 26/05/08   46.   aounist price of quiet for aoun =being a circus clown for hizb 21:45  |  yair 26/05/08   47.   # 45 Afikoman @ LA / USA 22:24  |  Joseph . E 26/05/08   48.   Future war for the Litani 23:30  |  Not a Dhimmi 26/05/08   49.   To Moshe 23:33  |  Elie 26/05/08   50.   Syria keeps Lebanon, Israel keeps Golan 23:39  |  Herbert Kaine 26/05/08   51.   Syria keeps Lebanon, Israel keeps Golan 23:39  |  Herbert Kaine 26/05/08   52.   Zvi Bar`el-please stop your propaganda 23:51  |  Elie 26/05/08   53.   Zvi Bar`el-please stop your propaganda 23:59  |  Elie 26/05/08   54.   To Herbert Kaine. NEVER 00:16  |  Elie 27/05/08   55.   The price of quiet in Lebanon is tyranny 02:26  |  Anonymous 27/05/08   56.   Two years of peace from 2006. 03:48  |  a wandering Jew 27/05/08   57.   peace-that elusive goal.... 04:07  |  Mark 27/05/08   58.   To Zvi Chamberlain 05:32  |  Frank 27/05/08   59.   Not a Dhimmi 09:04  |  northern neighbor 27/05/08   60.   # 50 Herbert Kaine: Despicable! 09:42  |  Vinegar Hill 27/05/08   61.   #50, HERBET, so syria leaves lebanon, israel gives golan? 10:29  |  viper069 30/05/08

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