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The great fraud
By Israel Harel
Tags: Israel

Israel has agreed in principle, the newspapers inform us, to the Hamas-initiated tahadiyeh. (In Israel they are devoted to the Palestinian terms: nakba, intifada, hudna). Some of the terror leaders refuse to believe it. Israel is setting us a trap, they warn.

This warning has a basis. Less than two years after Israel was forced to agree to a cease-fire in Lebanon - a cease-fire some claim Israel initiated after it could not overcome Hezbollah - it clearly cannot grant another terror organization, smaller and inferior to Hezbollah, a similar achievement.

One may assume that the decision makers in Israel understand all too well what Iran, and not only Iran, might conclude from this. Moreover, Israel has reportedly not conditioned the cease-fire on the release of kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit.
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Could anyone have imagined that Israel would reach such a nadir?

It is also unreasonable to suppose, the skeptics will argue, that Israel believes that Hamas will meet its obligations to stop smuggling weapons and explosives to the Gaza Strip.

Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni will remind the inner cabinet how mistaken she was when she thought Hezbollah would not return to its evil ways because Security Council Resolution 1771, which she, among others, promoted, prohibited it from rearming south of the Litani River, and because a reinforced United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon would prevent it from doing so.

It is well known, the heir apparent to the crown of the premiership will certainly say, that after the cease-fire, Hezbollah will greatly increase its number of long-range rockets. It is inconceivable, she will certainly say, that this time as well, we will not learn our lesson.

Hamas, exhausted and under pressure, initiated the cease-fire. It is hard to believe that Defense Minister Ehud Barak, a man of many wiles, would agree, precisely when he senses that the enemy is in trouble, to give them a chance to recover.

Barak also understands that a cease-fire could damage his own image because the cease-fire will doubtless be broken, hurting him and his party at the ballot box.

Barak remembers well the trap Yasser Arafat set for him at Camp David. The terror war that Arafat started afterward led to Barak's humiliating downfall in the elections and the rise of Likud, headed by Ariel Sharon. Thus, suspicious people in Hamas will say, it is unlikely that Barak would knowingly bring another loss down on himself.

As for Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, nothing beats a cease-fire to revive media and legal immunity. But since Olmert knows that the cease-fire will not be honored, he will lose his prestige entirely. Moreover, those who protected him in the past have lost a great deal of their ability to grant, and especially to preserve, such protection now.

The exemption the judicial system gave Sharon and Olmert created a crisis of confidence between the system and much of the public. It is hard to believe that this time as well, the public will allow the same kind of legal coddling.

The media, which purged Sharon's and Olmert's sins because they were moving in the political direction it prefers, has lost its glamour and prestige. Some journalists have publicly declared that because they had done an injustice to the truth, their profession and their conscience, they are to blame as well for everything happening now in the Western Negev. The others, those who continue to handle Olmert with kid gloves, for example, in the matter of the Syrian peace talk spin, appear to the public as shadows of their former selves. If the Syrians are ready for peace, the public will say, Livni or Barak, who have our confidence, can promote it as well.

Israel received two blows in Lebanon: one on the battlefield and the other in the big fraud of the cease-fire. A mere two years after these blows, Israel cannot once again appear pressured into accepting a cease-fire when it knows that the outcome, as with the Hezbollah precedent, will be the strengthening of the enemy, which will break its pledge not to manufacture Qassams or smuggle arms from Egypt.

Thus, since Israel is no patsy, anyone in a decision-making position in the terror groups should now assume that Israel is practicing a deception and is plotting, under cover of the cease-fire, to strike a decisive blow at Hamas and its satellites, after which they will not be able to raise their heads.
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