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Five comments on the situation
By Yoel Marcus
Tags: Ehud Olmert, Moshe Talansky 

1. I would love to be a fly on the wall when the police investigators visit Prime Minister Ehud Olmert at home today for questioning that will take "an hour at most." How will they address him? Will they say "Mr. Prime Minister, we have a few questions for you," or will they speak to him crudely, the way they did to Asher Yadlin, who was grilled by the police for suspected graft and bribery (money he also claimed was for the party) a minute before he took office as governor of the Bank of Israel? Will they pull out an envelope and ask him if it looks familiar? Will any of them raise their voice? Will there be a good cop and a bad cop asking if he likes the smell of Lysol? Will they be sarcastic and ask if he really believes that the peace-with-Syria spin will save him?

The important thing is that the truth be brought to light as quickly as possible. After Olmert has made it clear that he will resign the moment an indictment is brought against him, there is no reason to go digging 10 or 15 years back. With things as they are today, Israel can't afford to be led by a lame duck under police caution.

2. There is no indictment yet and the wheelers and dealers in Olmert's party are already dividing up the bearskin, as the Germans like to say. If Olmert resigns, it doesn't mean there will be elections. The president will ask one of the MKs with the greatest chances to form a new government. Shimon Peres is probably distraught about losing an opportunity to be the next prime minister, but he will have to entrust the mission to an MK from the largest party. The presumption that Tzipi Livni, as the prime minister's deputy, is the natural candidate is driving some of the more macho males in Kadima and Labor up a wall. Shaul Mofaz, Avi Dichter and Ehud Barak are busy tarring and feathering her: What does she know about military matters and defense?
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Did Hillary Clinton get asked that when she turned to voters and said: Who do you want as your commander in chief? Look at Bush, the Texas cowboy. He dragged America into a war in Iraq where thousands have died and nothing has been achieved. Israel needs to ready itself for peace agreements and smart diplomacy under the leadership of someone capable of reining in generals who see our future through the sights of a gun.

3. Henry Kissinger, who reached out to the People's Republic of China after the military fiasco in Vietnam, coined the phrase that peace is made with your enemies. His boss, Richard Nixon, ended the Vietnam War and signed an agreement with the Chinese even though he was a crook and got impeached. Israel has had good experience making peace with bitter enemies. This is mainly true of the peace with Egypt. We don't do much hugging and kissing, and their writers and intellectuals boycott us, but this peace has lasted 30 years.

It's not clear why such a fuss is being made about Olmert sending envoys to discuss the possibility of an agreement with Syria. "The deeper the probe, the more concessions to Syria," they're chanting these days, updating the old cliche. Defense-obsessed Israel and Olmert's Israel, captivated by the charms of President Bush, have fallen prey to the concept that Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and his buddies are peace partners. In practice, their signatures won't be worth the paper they're written on. The true representative of the next generation of Palestinians is Hamas, and it is Hamas we should be speaking with to reach a comprehensive agreement. We don't have to love them, and they don't have to love us, but Hamas was democratically elected. The alternative - going into Gaza - will be a bloodbath.

4. Even if Olmert goes, forming a government based on what we have now is preferable to early elections. For starters, we are not cut out for overnight elections. Israel is not Britain. Around here, it would mean months of preparation, massive spending and internal squabbling. Above all, there is no political star glittering on the horizon. What are we looking at? The same old politicians, the same old tricks, the same gallery of boring, insipid characters. No party has an alternative leadership in the wings that would justify bringing the elections forward. It's a worrying thought, but if the contest turns out to be a replay of Benjamin Netanyahu versus Ehud Barak, we could end up with Arcadi Gaydamak.

5. A question for Moshe "Laundry Man" Talansky, who says he has nothing to declare and all his actions are legal: I'm having a little overdraft problem. Maybe he knows where I can get hold of some of those envelopes?
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