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Prime Minister Ehud Olmert (Dan Keinan) Olmert: Not sure how long I'll be PM, but won't give up peace talks By Yossi Verter Tags: Ehud Olmert, Ariel Sharon  "There will be disgusting headlines, we are in for a rough stretch and we will all go through an ordeal, but there will be no indictment," Prime Minister Ehud Olmert promised his associates a few days after the Talansky affair broke. He knew and they knew that the indirect negotiations with the Syrians in Turkey were nearing maturation point. It was also clear to them that any move would be automatically tainted as a tactic, just as they knew that the main allegation against Olmert would involve the lack of "public trust and a moral foundation." This did not come as a surprise to Olmert. The same was said about former prime minister Ariel Sharon. Sharon was questioned about suspicions that he received bribes amounting to $1.5 million from South African businessman Cyril Kern. But Sharon took Israel out of Gaza. Advertisement I, Olmert told an inner circle on Wednesday night, while keeping one eye on the Manchester United-Chelsea soccer match - I promised in my election campaign more than two years ago that I intended to extricate Israel from the diplomatic deadlock it was in, and I kept my promise. For the first time Israel is conducting negotiations on two parallel channels, the Syrian and the Palestinian, and I have no intention of forgoing either of them. Someone asked Olmert how much time he has to reach an agreement on such a complex issue, one on which three of his predecessors - Yitzhak Rabin, Benjamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak - failed. I don't know how much time I have left, Olmert replied, but I do not intend to let go. The negotiations will be intense. I must not give in, must not give up. Tony Blair was investigated, and so was Silvio Berlusconi, and they continued running a country. Israel has some difficult decisions to make. People who spoke with Olmert gleaned the impression that he has no illusions about the likelihood of reaching an agreement with Syrian President Bashar Assad, or about the prospect of getting such an agreement approved in the Knesset, if it is attained. He is determined to leave the public stage not only as a defendant but also as a leader who advanced diplomatic moves. "He has decided to fall on his own sword," is the way opposition leader Netanyahu put it, in a conversation with Likud MKs. On Wednesday evening, in his speech at an education conference in Tel Aviv, Olmert drew applause when he talked about the negotiations with Syria. He looked grateful for the applause, and also surprised. Olmert no longer expects ovations. Were it not for the allegations of corruption and the investigations, Olmert could go down in history as a pretty good prime minister. True, he failed in his management of the Second Lebanon War, but he promoted processes, renewed negotiations with the Palestinians, which had died in the Sharon period, made a clever decision when choosing the Turks as mediators in the Syrian channel, and enjoys the trust and sympathy of the world's most important leaders. Still, his fate will be decided by those cash-filled envelopes. There is no other option in a properly run state, and that is as it should be. In closed conversations he held on Wednesday with confidants and with senior figures in the Kadima and Labor parties, Olmert said that the defense establishment knew about the prolonged contacts with the Syrians, and that its top brass backed the move. The Americans were in the loop, too, but gave neither a green nor a red light. Defense Minister Ehud Barak was in on the secret as a full partner, from the time he ran for Labor Party chairman, a year ago. The personal relations between Olmert and Barak, which are now proving themselves, allowed Olmert to disclose the existence of the contacts to Barak at an early stage. Barak's approach, Olmert said, was very supportive, very serious, reasoned and detailed. He contributed much from his experience and his knowledge. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni was also in the picture, although the breakthrough over the past few days was kept from her. The most recent development was very hush-hush, and besides, she and Olmert are barely on speaking terms. It all began during Amir Peretz's term as defense minister. After the 2006 war, Peretz set up a task force on the Syrian question, headed by Major General (Res.) Uri Saguy, a former director of Military Intelligence. After some preparatory work, the Prime Minister's Bureau took over. Amir did a lot of good things, Olmert likes to say about his former rival and present-day pal, and he deserves much respect for it. The negotiations were characterized by ups and downs. The bombing of the Syrian nuclear reactor in September 2007 and the assassination of Hezbollah's Imad Mughniyah in Damascus this past February (which many assume Israel was behind) were definitely part of the downs, but the Syrians were persuaded that Israel is serious, and there was no escalation. They were also impressed by the fact that the talks were kept secret in media-porous Israel. And there was a calculated, planned game of Olmert sending public messages about his readiness for peace with Syria. A few months ago he said something to that effect in a meeting of the Knesset's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, and he returned to the subject during the Passover media interviews he granted. The public was being prepared psychologically. When it was necessary to speak, we spoke, Olmert told his associates this week, and when it was necessary to be quiet, we were quiet. During sensitive times no detailed remarks were issued. That helped establish mutual trust. I said on several occasions: I know what the Syrians want and they know what I expect. Olmert was asked whether during this period, when "T'n'T" - Yoram Turbovich, the prime minister's chief of staff, and Shalom Turgeman, his diplomatic adviser - were traveling back and forth between Tel Aviv and Ankara, he had exchanged a personal letter or anything else with Assad. Olmert declined to reply. Some took his silence to mean that something had indeed been passed from one side to another. But what? A new take on Barak Two months ago, Ehud Barak held a closed meeting with high-school students in Tel Aviv and talked to them about Syria. "There are quite a few of us who think that a great effort has to be made and that we must enter into talks with the Syrians, if possible. Because if we do not meet them at the negotiating table we will in the end meet them on the battlefield. And even if we feel stronger, and we win, what will happen after a war like that? Will we remain in Damascus? Will we establish a branch of ORT [the vocational school at which Barak spoke] there? We will sit at the negotiating table and talk about what - about the same things that have long since been on the table." In retrospect, Barak's decision not to leave the government after the publication of the final Winograd report, which examined the management of the Second Lebanon War, and his decision not to leave now, either, against the backdrop of the investigation into Olmert, appear in a different light. Labor's resignation from the government would have led to early elections and the rise of a right-wing, ultra-Orthodox bloc. The negotiations with the Syrians - and with the Palestinians - would have broken down. Decisions about the bombing of the reactor in Syria, or about a possible incursion into Gaza, might have been made differently. Barak understands that his continued presence in the Olmert government is eroding his political support, but he sees no better alternative at this time. Livni for prime minister? "I have no doubt - I can be prime minister," Tzipi Livni says. She sweeps away in a terse monologue the allegations about her lack of diplomatic-security experience, citing a long list of personal achievements - from the "Livni compromise," which enabled Ariel Sharon to pass the disengagement plan in the cabinet, to her activity during the Second Lebanon War, and her involvement in every security-policy forum in the past two years. She detects a note of chauvinism in the criticism of her. She does not feel inferior to the generals or to the "men's men" - after all, we saw what they can do. In the first few days after the Talansky affair broke, the idea of resigning passed through her mind: That would have drawn a standing ovation from the public and perhaps hastened Olmert's political demise. But only perhaps. After all, Olmert has already demonstrated miraculous powers of recuperation. She would resign, he would appoint Shaul Mofaz foreign minister and compensate Meir Sheetrit, and she would be a most moral, but powerless MK. That did not suit her. She is doing fantastically well in the polls and is considered the only one who can keep Kadima in power. All she has to do is avoid mistakes, stay cool and prepare herself for all the mud that will be hurled at her in the campaign for party leadership, or even in the pre-campaign that is already under way in the party. Two weeks ago, she invited Knesset Speaker Dalia Itzik for coffee. To make sure the meeting was not leaked, Itzik was asked to come to Livni's home, in North Tel Aviv. Itzik was and remains devoted to Olmert to the point of martyrdom. She and Livni are on correct but cool terms. It's a safe guess that Livni wanted to find out what Itzik would do on the day after Olmert; it's a safe guess that Itzik promised nothing. Olmert knows that the Kadima cabinet ministers are just waiting for him to go, and they know he knows. Olmert's circles divide the group into two: Livni and Avi Dichter, and all the rest. The first two signaled, each in her or his style, where they stand, mainly by refraining from expressing the hope that Olmert would be exonerated. They may well be working together, Olmert's associates think. Dichter has said he will run for the party leadership in a primary, but if presented with a political possibility of uniting around a candidate who would form a government in the present Knesset, Dichter will back Livni. His associates believe that the Livni-Dichter combination is the only one capable of bringing new forces into Kadima. A central figure in Kadima who is close to Olmert did not like the public commitment he made to resign if indicted. The resignation of the prime minister in effect means the resignation of the government. Within seven days the president has to charge another MK with the task of forming a new government. In the absence of a leader in Kadima, Netanyahu would find himself conveniently positioned to form a government, together with a third of the Kadima MKs, or to force new elections. "Olmert can't do that to us," the confidant said this week. "I understand that he will never give Livni the gift of being acting prime minister for a hundred days, but there is also another possibility: both to preserve Kadima and to prevent Livni from becoming acting PM." This is the confidant's suggestion, which he has most certainly passed on to Olmert, too: "If you are indicted, don't resign but go on leave, under the rubric of temporary incapacity, so Kadima can organize for a primary. But before that, fire Livni as your deputy. Inform her that she is not ready to take the prime minister's chair. In her place appoint Shaul Mofaz. It will be said that you liquidated Livni, that you behaved cynically, but no one will be able to say that you appointed someone unworthy - a former chief of staff. People in Olmert's circle say they have not heard about this idea, but acknowledge that, "It's an idea." Related articles: Police question Olmert on close friend's testimony Israel-Syria talks leave the 'Iranians in shock' Netanyahu: Golan pullout would put Iran on Israel's doorstep Bookmark to del.icio.us   Scuba SMS Ultrasonic sound wave technology revolutionizes underwater communication. 'Hip-hop violinist' Israeli violinist participates in New York event, celebrating Israel's 60th anniversary.   1.   BY THE WAY OLMERT ! YOU NEVER WISHED PEACE. DONT LIE 11:26  |  ATİLLA KARAGÖZOĞLU 23/05/08   2.   Leave Olmert 12:32  |  korn 23/05/08   3.   In Israel, peace talks are an end in themselves 13:03  |  Natallie Durson 23/05/08   4.   How long as PM? Too long 13:17  |  Ilan 23/05/08   5.   Olmert is NO Sharon.....Do not dare Compare..... 13:21  |  Dolly 23/05/08   6.   Skeptic but maybe fantasies do come true 13:30  |  just a jew 23/05/08   7.   A ruse... 13:33  |  Sally Levy 23/05/08   8.   Don`t know how long i will be premier 14:07  |  Ezer 23/05/08   9.   Get rid of Olmert NOW 14:07  |  Hinky 23/05/08   10.   Olmert`s Song 14:15  |  Ghassan 23/05/08   11.   Mr. Olmert, why don`t you pursue peace talks under the leadership 14:24  |  Erez 23/05/08   12.   The Ensemble of Talent needed to fix ME Crisis 14:57  |  Shimon Cleopas 23/05/08   13.   Of course he won`t be indicted. He`s whiter than white 15:18  |  David 23/05/08   14.   Olmert and Mazuz 16:11  |  Rabbi Yakov Lazaros 23/05/08   15.   Olmert lies about peace 16:26  |  Joshua 23/05/08   16.   Livni You can`t be PM 16:38  |  Kipperraes 23/05/08   17.   Bottom Line Is Olmert Received Illicit Funds,& Must Resign NOW 16:41  |  Shepherd 23/05/08   18.   Olmert, Mofaz the two biggest failures of Israeli history 16:48  |  Simon 23/05/08   19.   Olmert to get lost, Livni to retire to kitchen duties, Barak to 17:22  |  Sal 23/05/08   20.   Tzipi Livni? Another Kadima? Another Olmert 17:44  |  Dagma 23/05/08   21.   What `Election `Promises? 17:59  |  Onlooker 23/05/08   22.   What `Election `Promises? 17:59  |  Onlooker 23/05/08   23.   talks are to keep him in office & out of prison not for peace 18:05  |  zionist forever 23/05/08   24.   Pretty Good Prime Minister???? 18:27  |  Claude 23/05/08   25.   A Serving Prime Minister......! 19:22  |  charlie 23/05/08   26.   Olmert won`t give up on Peace Talks he says... 19:38  |  Natasha 23/05/08   27.   Olmert life line 20:08  |  Johm 23/05/08   28.   What Impudence! Olmert comparing his Investigations 20:17  |  Dolly 23/05/08   29.   Olmert and the Syrians..... 20:33  |  Dagma 23/05/08   30.   Israelies Choose Appeasement 20:34  |  Tod Zuckerman 23/05/08   31.   Olmert: Make peace on behalf of another country! 20:41  |  Avi 23/05/08   32.   Jpost imitates Haaretz, badly .... FAIL! 20:44  |  smarter then Olmert 23/05/08   33.   Olmert can talk all he wants,No peace deals until new elections 21:30  |  THE WARRIOR 23/05/08   34.   Yossi Verter - in his own words 22:09  |  Gary S. 23/05/08   35.   Be Warned 22:23  |  Sarah 23/05/08   36.   Olmert must go!! 00:35  |  Lobo 24/05/08   37.   72% of Israelis want to keep the Golan, 87% want Olmert to resign 02:47  |  Wendy 24/05/08   38.   NOT FOR LONG....FOR sure... 05:19  |  Ali 24/05/08   39.   To Ali # 38 - A few con-men...... 10:10  |  Dolly 24/05/08

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