Subscribe to Print Edition | Sat., June 28, 2008 Sivan 25, 5768 | | Israel Time: 01:57 (EST+7) web haaretz.com   Back to Homepage Rosner's Domain Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Car Rental Books Peres Conference Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File

Last update - 14:36 23/05/2008 The mirage of a Shi'ite threat By Zvi Bar'el Tags: Hamas, Syria, Israel All of a sudden, it looks like the Middle East is changing: Israel and Hamas are negotiating a cease-fire (indirectly, of course). Syria and Israel are negotiating peace (indirectly, of course) and even Lebanon has taken a time-out from its descent into civil war. At long last we can focus on the region's theoretical conflict - the one between Sunni and Shi'ite Muslims. Military experts have been talking about Israel being threatened by Shi'ite pincers. But is this a real war or an imagined one? Anyone who listened to U.S. President George W. Bush's speech in the Knesset last week could not help but be struck by its failure to mention an important member of the "axis of evil": North Korea. Iran was mentioned, as was Syria, and the president's vision, according to which Al-Qaida, Hezbollah and Hamas will be vanquished, was not left out either. It was mentioned in the same paragraph in which Bush described the world as it should appear when Israel celebrates its 120th birthday. The terms "Shia," "Shi'ite crescent" or the "Shi'ite pincers" in which Israel is caught were not mentioned even once. Because Bush, like any other Middle East observer, has no choice but to state that the Shi'ite threat is not a political or a military one, but the mobilization of religious rivalry for political ends. The real threat emanates from countries like Iran, organizations like Hezbollah (Shi'ite) and Hamas (Sunni) or Al-Qaida (Sunni). Advertisement Only 10 percent of the region's billion and a quarter Muslims are Shi'ites. The fact that 89 percent of Iran's 70 million inhabitants are Shi'ites is not the threat, just as the fact that the Shi'ite community in Lebanon constitutes 30 percent of the population is not the threat. The Iranian threat lies in the regime's character, and more particularly in the character of the country's leader. Iran is a nuclear and perhaps also a terrorist threat, but not because it is a Shi'ite state. Iran's political meddling Until three years ago, when Mohammad Khatami was president and promoted the idea of a "dialogue between cultures," no one talked about the Shi'ite peril. Not even countries like Saudi Arabia, Jordan or Egypt, which in the past two years have begun to posit the "Shi'ite problem" as a danger. Last week, Khatami stated that "by the expression 'to export the revolution' [Ayatollah] Khomeini did not intend for us to take up arms and blow up places in other countries." For that remark he was fiercely criticized by the radical politicians, who are apprehensive ahead of next year's presidential elections. Khatami has not yet announced his candidacy, but it's thought that if he runs he could garner tremendous public support. To ward off the threat, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has become very active politically, undertaking moves that have included the firing of the ministers of economics and of the interior, the purging of Iranian intelligence officers who served during the Khatami regime, and the allocation of significant resources to social welfare. Last week, Ahmadinejad was summoned by the parliament to explain why he wants to spend $3 billion of the country's foreign currency reserves. The mostly conservative members of parliament do not want to criticize Ahmadinejad for his foreign policy - the opposition does that job just fine. But they are not sparing in their criticism of the stagnant economy, an inflation rate of 19.4 percent, the huge waste of money and the emptying of the Stabilization Fund, which derives from surplus oil revenues and was supposed to serve Iran in times of dearth. Conservatives, too, such as Ali Larijani, who was removed from his post as secretary-general of the Supreme National Security Council, level criticism at Ahmadinejad, and occasionally even the supreme spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, expresses dissatisfaction with the president's policies. None of this guarantees that Ahmadinejad will not be the next president of Iran, but the country's nuclear program, even if it leads to the manufacture of a nuclear bomb, is a subject on which all religious and ethnic streams are united. Not because they are Shi'ites, but because they are Iranians who consider their country to be a power. Just as Pakistan and India developed nuclear technology and weapons not because they are Muslim or Hindu but because of the strategic threat each perceives in the other. Iran is seeking to exert influence in the region: in Iraq, which has a Shi'ite majority; in Lebanon, which has a militant Shi'ite minority; in Bahrain, which has a Shi'ite majority (apparently - no census has been conducted in the country since 1941); but also in Sunni Sudan and Yemen. It aspires to hegemony, just as Egypt and Saudi Arabia aspire to preserve their hegemony, or at least the hegemony they once enjoyed. Thus the deep dispute between Saudi Arabia and Iran (which signed a cooperation agreement in security matters) is over Lebanon, not over how to interpret Islamic precepts. Until the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, in 2005, Saudi Arabia said nothing against "Shi'ism" or against Iran. In Wahhabi Saudi Arabia, which sprouted Osama bin Laden and his cohorts, Shia Islam is generally considered a "heretical" sect, but the Saudis have been effective in suppressing the Shi'ite minority. Riyadh accuses Tehran of preventing the establishment of an international court to try the suspects in the Hariri killing, who are mainly Syrians and Lebanese, irrespective of their religious allegiance. Egypt, whose relations with Syria are cool at best, also accuses Iran of political meddling in the relations among Arab states. Egyptian columnists frequently urge Syria to return to the Arab fold and leave the Iranian circle, referring to it by the term "Shia." But these are the same commentators who launch angry, hate-filled attacks against the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood, which they view as the concrete and immediate threat to Egypt. And they are, by the way, the same Egyptian commentators and politicians who attacked Hamas (a Sunni organization, it will be recalled) for breaching the fence between Egypt and the Gaza Strip, just as they attacked Hezbollah - not for fighting against Israel but for subordinating Arab Lebanon to non-Arab Iran. Good Sunnis, bad Shi'ites? The division between good Sunnis and bad Shi'ites sells well, particularly in light of recent events in Lebanon. A small organization, which represents a minority among the Shi'ites, succeeded in stealing the country, and this week it is conducting negotiations in Qatar with its political rivals, not from the position of equal among equals but as a victor capable of dictating its terms. But Hezbollah's threat to Israel does not derive from its being a Shi'ite organization; after all, the Palestinian groups in Lebanon also fought Israel, and they are Sunni. The First Lebanon War was "against Sunnis," not because they were Sunnis but because of the terrorist attacks against Israel, which stemmed from the national aspiration to liberate Palestine. Similarly, the war against Hezbollah was not launched because Hezbollah is a Shi'ite organization. Hezbollah's actions against Israel were part of a national Lebanese aim, and its leaders were always careful to say that they were fighting on behalf of all of Lebanon. The connection and dependence between Hezbollah and Iran is ideological, religious and strategic. But if Iran elects a reformist president like Khatami next year, one who is interested in conducting a genuine dialogue with the United States, will that policy necessarily be binding on Hezbollah? Will Hezbollah no longer seek to overcome its rivals in Lebanon? Or will it perhaps view the Khatami regime as a pro-Western betrayal? Hezbollah, it should be recalled, had a difficult time with the previous Khatami regime. Kamal Harazi, the Iranian foreign minister at the time, made it clear immediately that "after the IDF [Israel Defense Forces] leaves all of Lebanon, Hezbollah will no longer have a military role." That is also the approach of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's political rivals in the Beirut government. But if the ties between Hezbollah and Iran are built on a solid religious and ideological foundation, what about Hamas, a Sunni organization? The organization, whose leadership enjoys the protection of secular Syria and which for years received funding from Sunni Saudi Arabia? Has it, too, suddenly become a Shi'ite organization? Has the offspring of the Muslim Brotherhood, which views Shi'ites as deviants, itself become their friend? Is Hamas a pro-Iranian organization that effectively places Iran on the border with Israel? Hamas is a threatening and dangerous organization not because of its ties with Iran or with Syria, but because of its radical religious ideology, and above all because it has the ability to perpetrate attacks and fire rockets. It makes no difference whether its munitions come from Iran or from North Korea or were stolen from the IDF. It draws its legitimacy from the local arena and not from the ayatollahs in Iran. If Saudi Arabia were to suddenly resume its support for Hamas, Hamas would undoubtedly prefer it to Iran. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Haniyeh's plea Hamas leader in Gaza says rocket fire must stop for sake of Palestinians. Softening position Shin Bet agrees to free prisoners 'with blood on their hands' for Shalit.   1.   Israel is hallucinated about Iran, but too castrated to attack it 14:23  |  Aounist 23/05/08   2.   Are the Saudis changing the subject? 20:07  |  GOP Tom 23/05/08   3.   SURPRISE 22:10  |  JACKAL 23/05/08   4.   Whatever man 23:12  |  Bint Jbeil 23/05/08   5.   The Second lebanon War, part of a national Lebanese aim? 00:32  |  sandra chitayat 24/05/08   6.   Revolutionary Shi`ism - Ashura 00:48  |  Sadiq M 28/06/08

Read & React Mortar shells hit southern Israel despite Gaza truce Responses: 138 Shin Bet agrees to free prisoners 'with blood on their hands' for Shalit Responses: 103 'Dutch Jimmy Carter' accuses Israel of terrorism in new book Responses: 159 Amos Shocken: Citizenship law makes Israel an apartheid state Responses: 86 Shmuel Rosner: Can U.S. Jews support Iraq war and for Israel's sake? Responses: 33 More Headlines 01:01 Haniyeh: Stop firing at Israel for sake of Palestinians 01:22 Libya seeking UN condemnation of Israeli settlement building 19:41 Shin Bet agrees to free prisoners 'with blood on their hands' for Shalit 14:36 The French connection 14:41 Why did Haredim force girls to cover up at a Jerusalem ceremony? 22:28 Did Croatia fans chant 'Heil Hitler' during Turkey match? 11:36 'Dutch Jimmy Carter' accuses Israel of terrorism in new book 12:41 PMO: Cabinet vote on Hezbollah prisoner swap may be delayed 16:08 30 mothers hold rally for Gilad Shalit at Erez crossing 11:06 Israel gives UN watchdog secret briefing on Iran 12:00 HIV diagnoses in Israel climb; new cases among gays up sharply 09:52 Racial tensions rise to surface in mixed Jewish-Muslim district in Paris Previous Editions Select Day 27 jun 26 jun 25 jun 24 jun 23 jun 22 jun 20 jun 19 jun 18 jun 17 jun 16 jun 15 jun

Special Offers Advertisement SAVE TALIA! and hundreds of cancer patients around the world Holyland Park Jerusalem Apartment Tower World Class Luxury In the heart of Tel-Aviv The Meier on Rothschild tower Jerusalem of Gold Luxury apartments in Jerusalem's finest location Your vacation starts here Israel Travel Center Guaranteed Lowest Rates Hebrew Summer courses From $39.95 Pardes Institute Summer Sessions http://www.pardes.org.il/ Free the Palestinians from: Corrupt Kleptocracy, Tyrannical Theocracy, Abysmal Anarchy Fattal Hotel Chain Perfectly located hotels on best resorts of Israel. ISRAEL BONDS Build Israel Israel bonds - a multi-purpose way to celebrate Israel's 60th Eldan Rent a Car Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on all online reservations Junkyard Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt

Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Underground | Site rules |

Real Estate in Israel | Travel to Israel with Haaretz | Hotels Israel | Restaurants Israel | Tourist attractions Israel | Shops Israel

birthright Israel

Haaretz.com, the online edition of Haaretz Newspaper in Israel, offers real-time breaking news, opinions and analysis from Israel and the Middle East. Haaretz.com provides extensive and in-depth coverage of Israel, the Jewish World and the Middle East, including defense, diplomacy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, Israeli politics, Jerusalem affairs, international relations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israeli business world and Jewish life in Israel and the Diaspora.

© Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved