Subscribe to Print Edition | Fri., May 23, 2008 Iyyar 18, 5768 | | Israel Time: 03:29 (EST+7) web haaretz.com   Back to Homepage Rosner's Domain Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Advertising Books Peres Conference Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File

Too many question marks By Amos Harel Tags: Ehud Olmert, peace process  Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is entering negotiations on the Golan Heights backed with the kind of support from all senior figures in the defense establishment that his predecessors never had. From Defense Minister Ehud Barak on down - with the exception of Mossad chief Meir Dagan - it seems that there is broad support even for a complete withdrawal from the heights. However, this advantage is canceled out by the current public standing of the prime minister. As he embarks on public talks with Syria the level of the public's trust in him and his motives is frighteningly low. Olmert's predecessors also turned to peace talks or to unilateral withdrawals under less than auspicious domestic political conditions. Ehud Barak went to the Taba talks with the Palestinians in January 2001 as his coalition government was disintegrating; some of those who represented him at the talks said his was a "wholesale" approach. Advertisement Ariel Sharon, who announced the disengagement in the winter of 2005, was accused of trying to avoid being indicted in a corruption case - and his enemies coined the phrase "the extent of the withdrawal reflects the extent of the investigation." Olmert has both a low approval rating and legal troubles; coincidentally or not the investigation against him is peaking just as news of negotiations with Syria is officially acknowledged. Under such circumstances, he will find it very difficult to convince the Israeli public of the purity of his intentions. This is a key issue, because a final arrangement with the Syrians will be much easier to resolve than with the Palestinians. The conditions for the deal, as well as the cost, have been known since 1994 when prime minister Yitzhak Rabin offered U.S. secretary of state Warren Christopher a promise that Israel would withdraw from the Golan Heights in return for normalization and security with Syria. Moreover, Israel has good reason to think that since 2000, when talks with Syria broke down, that Damascus has softened its stance on issues such as the location of the border, the security arrangements and the division of water resources. A key obstacle in the talks between Barak and Syrian president Hafez Assad was Israel's refusal to allow Syrians to "dip their feet" in Lake Kinneret. Since then the waterline has eroded significantly and this is not likely to remain an issue. However, even if we assume that all these issues can be overcome Syrian President Bashar Assad will have to ask himself whether Olmert can deliver the proverbial goods: a deal that Israelis will support, either through elections or a referendum. The support of Israel's defense establishment of the talks with Syria is based on the assumption that the chances for a breakthrough on this track are greater than on the Palestinian track. It is also based on the view that when Assad gives his word he keeps it. To a certain extent it was high-ranking army officers, including some who have already retired, who pushed Olmert and Barak to the talks. Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi has been identified as a strong supporter of negotiations with Syria. His predecessors, Shaul Mofaz and Moshe Ya'alon, say that Ashkenazi has said that since the final stop (the Golan Heights in exchange for peace) is known it is best to take a direct route instead of stopping along the way (with a war in the middle). Lurking behind all of this, just like everything else this past year, is Iran. The army says that peace with Syria will remove a crucial element in Iran's strategy to create that Shi'ite crescent from Tehran to the Alawi regime in Damascus and Hezbollah in Beirut all the way to Sunni Hamas in the Gaza Strip. If Assad can slight loosen the grip of Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and contains the activities of Hamas in Damascus, the chance for a violent summer in the Middle East will diminish. Of course, this goes hand in hand with the continued efforts to achieve a tahadiyeh [truce] in the Gaza Strip. Another question is whether the U.S. is considering a military strike against Iran's nuclear installations. Some of those who heard President George Bush in Jerusalem last week felt that the answer to this question is 'yes.' If Ahmadinejad offers strong criticism of his ally in Damascus, this will be a sign that the matter is serious. In Israel, Syrian priorities are generally ranked in the following order: survival of the Alawi regime, the Syrian economy, the country's role in Lebanon, and the Golan Heights. U.S. economic aid will certainly come in handy for all issues of concern. The problem is that Bush abhors the Assad regime and is not thrilled by the idea of an Israeli-Syrian accord, even if he is not vetoing the continuation of talks. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Say what you want French court: Claim that Al-Dura tape doctored isn`t libelous. Peace in our time Olmert: Peace talks with Syria are a 'national duty'.   1.   The frightening stupidity of Israel`s military establishment 13:12  |  Kibbutznik Dati 22/05/08   2.   Army vs Peoplem, Who Should Win in a Democracy? 16:18  |  Straight Talk 22/05/08   3.   Generals are Known as Brilliant Peace Makers 18:16  |  mg 22/05/08   4.   Reply to #1 - Spot On 18:56  |  Tod Zuckerman 22/05/08   5.   Kiryat Shmona and Sderot are proofs of generals abilities to prot 21:13  |  Absolute Sweden 22/05/08   6.   straight talk? 22:44  |  A.M. 22/05/08

Read & React Poll: More Israelis against returning Golan than dividing Jerusalem Responses: 166 Olmert to Haaretz: Syria contacts are 'historic breakthrough' Responses: 71 Editorial: Spin or no spin, Olmert must continue Syria talks Responses: 52 Shmuel Rosner: Will Bush attack Iran or won't he? Responses: 55 Suicide bomber blows up truck at Gaza crossing Responses: 128 More Headlines 01:54 West backs Lebanese government's capitulation to Hezbollah 03:09 Olmert questioning Friday to focus on Messer's testimony 01:35 Israeli Arab driver critically hurt by guard at W. Bank settlement 01:50 Obama promises 'unshakable commitment' to Israel if elected president 20:54 Sources: Israel never pledged full withdrawal from Golan 23:41 McCain rejects pastor's support after 'God sent Hitler' comment 02:19 Blast at Erez crossing thought to be part of botched abduction bid 00:59 Pelosi denies Olmert proposed U.S. naval blockade against Iran 22:57 Argentine prosecutor: Arrest Menem for obstructing Jewish center bomb probe 00:10 Hamas: No truce unless Israel lifts siege of Gaza Strip Previous Editions Select Day 22 may 21 may 20 may 19 may 18 may 16 may 15 may 14 may 13 may 12 may 11 may 09 may

Special Offers Advertisement Dead Sea Products Buy Dead Sea mineral skin care and beauty products. Coupon code Haaretz for 10% off. Your vacation starts here Israel Travel Center Guaranteed Lowest Rates Istudy Learn Hebrew in 3 months The Terraces Your Ultimate Coastal Address On Nitza Boulevard, North Netanya Together Celebrating Israel's 60th The Jewish Agency and You - together making history Pardes Institute Summer Sessions http://www.pardes.org.il/ Free the Palestinians from: Corrupt Kleptocracy, Tyrannical Theocracy, Abysmal Anarchy Fattal Hotel Chain Perfectly located hotels on best resorts of Israel. ISRAEL BONDS Build Israel Israel bonds - a multi-purpose way to celebrate Israel's 60th Eldan Rent a Car Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on all online reservations Junkyard Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt

Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Underground | Site rules |

Real Estate in Israel

Haaretz.com, the online edition of Haaretz Newspaper in Israel, offers real-time breaking news, opinions and analysis from Israel and the Middle East. Haaretz.com provides extensive and in-depth coverage of Israel, the Jewish World and the Middle East, including defense, diplomacy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, Israeli politics, Jerusalem affairs, international relations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israeli business world and Jewish life in Israel and the Diaspora.

© Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved