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Last update - 12:45 19/05/2008
Israel to agree unofficially to Egypt cease-fire deal; skeptical Barak to discuss plan with Mubarak Monday
By Amos Harel and Barak Ravid
Tags: Omar Suleiman, Egypt 

Israel plans to accept the Egyptian-mediated cease-fire proposal with Hamas in the Gaza Strip, but does not intend to officially declare a commitment to it. Instead, Israel will treat the deal struck indirectly with Hamas as a series of steps beginning with a lull in hostilities, followed by gradual relaxation of the financial blockade of Gaza.

Ehud Barak, who will discuss the cease-fire with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Sharm el-Sheikh Monday, is skeptical about the chances of achieving long-term quiet with Hamas, and his feelings are shared by Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni.

However, Barak, who will be attending the World Economic Forum, is set to tell Mubarak and Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman that Israel is prepared to stop its military activities in Gaza if Hamas stops firing rockets at Israel. Israel will also try to get Egypt to step up efforts to stop weapons from being smuggled into Gaza. Barak is also expected to say that Israel will lift the blockade and open border crossings only if progress is made on talks aimed at releasing captive soldier Gilad Shalit.
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Once quiet reigns, Israel hopes to gradually raise the number of trucks allowed to bring goods into the Strip (only about 60 trucks a day, on average, are now allowed in). If a deal is reached on returning Shalit, in exchange for Israel's release of 450 prisoners, Israel would also agree to reopen the Rafah crossing, essentially lifting the blockade almost completely.

Israel is also softening its position on freeing prisoners. It has eased criteria for the prisoners with "blood on their hands," but Hamas is still seeking the release of some militants who were behind mass-casualty terror attacks. Security sources said the gap on the prisoner swap is slightly smaller than it was a few months ago.

Government officials are slowly coming to realize that a large-scale military operation in Gaza does not serve Israeli interests right now.

It appears from talks which Olmert and senior cabinet ministers held recently with representatives of the Bush administration and key European Union states that Israel will not have international support if it organizes an assault on Gaza now. However, Israeli sources said they think if it turns out, in a few weeks or months, that the cease-fire has failed because of Hamas, the U.S. and some European states might be more understanding about an attack.

Israel is also hesitating about launching a military offensive in the Strip because of the increasing concern over Iran's influence over the situation in countries bordering Israel, particularly Lebanon. A large operation in Gaza is liable to lead to escalation of Hezbollah activities in Lebanon and the opening of a northern front. Israel is feeling the Iranian threat more strongly, in part due to the closer relations between Tehran and Damascus, and the Iranian connection to decisions being made by Hezbollah in Beirut and by Hamas in Gaza.

The political-security cabinet is due to meet Wednesday to discuss the cease-fire, which Suleiman said had a good chance of succeeding.

"If Ehud Barak gives the green light to the components of the agreement concerning a calm, it will be possible to determine by tomorrow already the hour the cease-fire begins," Suleiman told MK Yossi Beilin(Meretz-Yahad) at Sharm el-Sheikh yesterday. Suleiman said Israeli approval of the deal would pave the way to an agreement with the Palestinian factions during a meeting Tuesday in Cairo.

Suleiman said if Israel were to agree to free the prisoners Hamas has named, Shalit's release could be included as part of the cease-fire deal, but he added that since Israel is rejecting most of the names, more negotiations will be necessary after the cease-fire takes effect.

The Israel Defense Forces will receive an order to begin an operation only if the Egyptian proposal fails, and Qassam fire from Gaza intensifies to the point of incurring serious losses in the western and northern Negev. As the politicians talk about a cease-fire, the IDF is preparing for the chance that the security situation in the South will worsen.

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      1.   APPEASERS!!!!! NO TALKING WITH TERRORIST! 04:02  |  NNOOOO!!!!!!!! 19/05/08
      2.   israel to agree..... 04:08  |  ljf-canada 19/05/08
      3.   No basis to believe Hamas 04:19  |  Dave Duncan 19/05/08
      4.   no reason for cease fire without schalit, .... 05:54  |  bernard ross 19/05/08
      5.   What does it mean? 06:06  |  Mark Lincoln 19/05/08
      6.   Why can Israel not be honest? 06:10  |  Mark Lincoln 19/05/08
      7.   The problem is those damned Palestinins 06:16  |  Mark Lincoln 19/05/08
      8.   Rest Assured - Deal won`t last 06:18  |  * BEN JABO 19/05/08
      9.   Why Israel is incapable of honesty 06:23  |  Mark Lincoln 19/05/08
      10.   Jimmy Carter 06:28  |  Joseph 19/05/08
      11.   Same Old Barak - Same Old Miserable Failure 06:29  |  Tod Zuckerman 19/05/08
      12.   Lincoln - You should be the very last to talk 07:02  |  * BEN JABO 19/05/08
      13.   #9-2 LINCOLN - Why are you running away? 07:05  |  * BEN JABO 19/05/08
      14.   cease fire 07:18  |  rm 19/05/08
      15.   PATHETIC!!!!! NEW ELECTIONS!!!! 07:35  |  Ben Uziel 19/05/08
      16.   A cease fire used as a stepping stone to war 07:47  |  Natallie Durson 19/05/08
      17.   APPEASE THE ISLAMO-FACISTS!!! 07:56  |  Jon 19/05/08
      18.   Oh yea of little faith 08:20  |  David 19/05/08
      19.   We should fight with the will to defeat the enemy. 08:26  |  Jean Van Daem 19/05/08
      20.   Don`t believe the story 08:45  |  JS 19/05/08
      21.   There will NOT be a "deal" unless... 08:59  |  Yoram Harel 19/05/08
      22.   Big deal 09:54  |  Clickfool 19/05/08
      23.   NOBODY CAN DEFEAT THE WILL OF THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE FOR FREEDOM 09:54  |  indrajaya 19/05/08
      24.   Jean van Daem and his propaganda blog # 19 10:29  |  Clickfool 19/05/08
      25.   Typo in headline lead 11:44  |  Shlomo 19/05/08
      26.   israil to agree 12:46  |  thaer 19/05/08
      27.   On conditions it continues with the killings 13:00  |  El-Birawi 19/05/08
      28.   Negotiations 13:08  |  Joseph 19/05/08
      29.   Gaza 13:46  |  Bob 19/05/08
      30.   Olmert,Abbas and Bush all are desperate 14:21  |  Ronnie Wolman 19/05/08
      31.   another bitter israeli defeat,under traitor olmert`s leadership 14:44  |  chaim 19/05/08
      32.   FIRST GILAT IS HANDED TO 16:06  |  Robert 19/05/08
      33.   # 7 Mark Lincoln - 16:09  |  17 19/05/08
      34.   Failed policy by failed leaders from a failed government... 16:30  |  bat yam 19/05/08
      35.   # 23 Indarayaya - gazans live in their motherland but 16:33  |  17 19/05/08
      36.   M.Lincoln: you don`t expect to be taken seriously are you, Mark? 17:02  |  ivo 19/05/08
      37.   natallie & British comrade 17:11  |  Austin 19/05/08
      38.   #5,6,7.Mark Lincoln.V.Gd. Assessments from your POSTS. 18:16  |  JoshuaNess 19/05/08
      39.   #10, Political Leaders always engaged in a musical chairs 18:34  |  Ari 19/05/08
      40.   Gaza Truce 18:53  |  Reid 19/05/08
      41.   #33 Actually, 17.... 01:22  |  Johnboy 20/05/08
      42.   Meeting is a great mistake 01:39  |  Brod 20/05/08
      43.   12# BEN JABO. This is exactly what I wanted to tell 11:46  |  Akram Zekaria 20/05/08
      44.   #43 Akram Zekaria - I am forced to correct you 18:52  |  * BEN JABO 20/05/08
      45.   another bitter israeli defeat,thanks to traitor olmert 02:42  |  chaim 21/05/08
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