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Hamas the acrobat Beginning tomorrow, U.S. President George W. Bush's visit will not only push events in the communities around the Gaza Strip out of the headlines; it will also dictate Israel's political and security agenda. Despite the two Israelis killed over the past few days by rocket and mortar fire, Israel's military military response in the Strip will be limited. As long as the U.S. president is here and the Egyptian cease-fire initiative is still under discussion, it is hard to believe that Israel will deviate from the rules of the game. One civilian killed engenders relatively focused aerial attacks on Hamas (the landlord) and Islamic Jihad (the shooters). More extensive actions, if any, will wait until the end of the week of 60th-anniversary celebrations. The events of the past few days illustrate the great danger not only to Sderot, but also to the moshavim and kibbutzim along the border with the Gaza Strip, and to Ashkelon. The mortars, some manufactured in Iran, and Qassam rockets are more precise and deadly than in the past. Advertisement Last month marked seven years since the firing started on Sderot. Israel's response has not improved much since 2001. Yesterday's rocket victim was killed, not coincidentally, at the height of the Egyptian intelligence chief Omar Suleiman's visit to Israel. Hamas is signaling it has no intention of waiting long for a positive response from Israel to the understandings Suleiman reached with the Palestinian factions. Despite the killing, it will be hard for Israel to reject the Egyptian proposal. Israel still needs an intermediary and is worried about insulting Egypt. But Israel also sees some positive elements in the initiative, including the Israel Defense Forces' continued freedom to act in the West Bank, and an Egyptian pledge (whose practical value is unclear) to improve the fight against arms smuggling from Sinai to the Strip. The key question is not the rocket fire, which Hamas can stop if it feels it has an agreement in hand. Rather, it is the link between the cease-fire and a deal to release kidnapped soldier Gilad Shalit. Shalit's father Noam sounded very worried over the past two weeks; he has good reason to fear that a cease-fire without progress over a prisoner swap will leave his son in the Gaza Strip for a long time to come. This time, for a change, people seemed to listen to him. Behind the scenes, a sharp debate is developing over Shalit. On the one hand, IDF Chief of Staff Gabi Ashkenazi and prisoner-swap coordinator Ofer Dekel support extensive concessions to broker the deal. On the other hand, Shin Bet security service chief Yuval Diskin is strongly opposed. Gradually, Defense Minister Ehud Barak seems to be leaning toward supporting a deal, even at a high price. The reason: The public debate that will ensue in Israel after Shalit returns will dictate the rules for the next swap, but the rules cannot be reinvented while a soldier the state sent on his mission is still being held captive. This issue will not be decided any time soon, but yesterday Noam Shalit seemed to have achieved a small victory when Israel demanded that Shalit be included in the agreement. Suleiman objects, but at least he will now have to find a formulation that will move the tahadiya ahead, instead of completely ignoring the Shalit issue, as he has done so far. Senior Gaza Strip Hamas leader Mahmoud Zahar sounded sure of himself yesterday, even insolent, when he was asked about his organization's position following he report of Israel's "Shalit condition." Sooner or later, he said, Israel would meet Hamas' conditions. Hamas would continue attacking the communities around the Gaza Strip to force Israel to give in, Zahar also said. For Hamas, the condition regarding Shalit is tantamount to an Israeli refusal. The organization said yesterday it would do anything necessary to break the siege of Gaza. However, Hamas has some difficult maneuvering ahead in the near future - how to attack without bringing on a major Israeli operation in the Strip. What is more, the Palestinians have reason to suspect that another element has been added this week to the considerations of decision-makers in Israel. Will intense fighting in Gaza not take the public and media center stage from an embarrassing criminal case? In the coming weeks, the IDF will have to deal with marches Hamas is planning toward the Gaza border crossings. Hamas needs photo-ops of a popular struggle to enlist international support in light of the distress of its people. At least some of the signs of a humanitarian crisis are exaggerated, even artificial. Hamas has learned that some of the foreign aid groups working for the population in the Gaza Strip will automatically come out against Israel, even if it was Hamas' actions that brought about greater suffering among Gazans. Meetings and meals by candle-light, shuttered bakeries, lack of water, will all get top billing on Arab satellite channels in the coming weeks. Bookmark to del.icio.us   A few good celebs Some of Hollywood's top guns congratulate Israel in a clip played in Times Square. Chosen, shmosen 'Religion is an incarnation of the most childish superstitions,' wrote Albert Einstein.

Read & React Ahmadinejad predicts Israel will be 'swept away' by Palestinians Responses: 133 Woman, 70, killed as Qassam strikes Negev home Responses: 314 Lebanese army says will use force from Tues. to stop fighting Responses: 86 Israel mulls moving Gaza crossings east to dodge rockets Responses: 223 Bush to Haaretz: PM is 'honest guy' and strategic thinker Responses: 90 More Headlines 02:40 Police quiz U.S. tycoon Sheldon Adelson as part of Olmert probe 00:13 Olmert: Understandings reached in talks with PA 02:41 Dennis Ross, Daniel Kurtzer slam Bush's Mideast policy 01:47 Video shows officer shooting protester with rubber bullet at close range 02:52 Tom Cruise, Ben Stiller wish Israel happy anniversary 22:27 Polish Pres.: Israeli youth should learn Poland not to blame for the Holocaust 19:43 Oscar winner Voight to Qassam victims: 'You're on the front line' 20:30 Fayyad: Israel shouldn't celebrate independence until peace deal signed 22:56 Israel mulls moving Gaza Strip crossings east to dodge rockets 03:00 Welfare Min. launches plan for savings accounts for every Israeli kid 17:40 Tony Blair: Israel agrees to ease West Bank restrictions 19:02 Einstein: Nothing 'chosen' about the Jews, Bible 'childish' legends 17:46 Saudi FM: Hezbollah 'coup' will affect Iran ties with Arab world Previous Editions Select Day 13 may 12 may 11 may 09 may 08 may 07 may 06 may 05 may 04 may 02 may 01 may 30 apr

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