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Last update - 02:45 13/05/2008
ANALYSIS / In Lebanon, the new reality has taken over
By Zvi Barel, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Lebanon, Civil War, Hezbollah

"The army should enter the governmental palace and remove [Lebanese Prime Minister] Fouad Siniora," Wiam Wahab, a Druze member of parliament allied with Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, declared on Monday.

"This demand is Hezbollah's immediate goal, and it will not retreat from it," agreed an associate of Christian General Michel Aoun, another Nasrallah ally, in a conversation with Haaretz. "This government's days are numbered. One can imagine 1,000 proposals for resolving the crisis, with involvement by the Arab League, religious scholars or anyone who wants to deal with this crisis, but Siniora's removal, the establishment of a national unity government in which the opposition has a veto, and amending the election law are our [Aoun's] and Hezbollah's minimum demands."

A few hours later, Aoun reiterated these demands publicly.
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The Christian general's announcement came in response to a statement by former Lebanese president Amin Gemayel, head of a rival Christian party that belongs to the governing coalition: "Hezbollah must promise that it will never again aim its weapons inside Lebanon."

To Gemayel, that is a precondition for any political dialogue. But it also represents a retreat from the government's support for UN Security Council Resolution 1559, which demanded Hezbollah's disarmament. This retreat was also evident in the fact that several government spokesmen called for reaching understandings with Nasrallah on Monday, while Nasrallah himself remained silent.

Instead, his troops spoke for him, through their rapid takeover of Beirut and key cities around Mount Lebanon. This included successfully disarming the militia of Siniora's Druze ally, Walid Jumblatt. On Sunday, Jumblatt sounded defeated: He ordered his men to turn over their weapons to the Lebanese Army, and begged Nasrallah not to translate their personal rivalry into a campaign of revenge against the Druze in general.

"Those who previously demanded that Hezbollah be disarmed are now being compelled to disarm themselves," noted one Lebanese commentator. "Lebanon needs to start getting used to the new reality."

This "new reality" has sowed panic among many Lebanese Christians, in part due to rumors that Nasrallah planned to take revenge on his erstwhile opponents. Aoun publicly pledged on Monday that no Christians would be harmed, but that failed to assuage their fears.

The bottom line is that the Arab League delegation due to arrive in Beirut Tuesday faces a seemingly irreversible reality that will force it to grant a seal of approval to Hezbollah's political takeover. Over the weekend, Yemen's president said publicly that Siniora ought to resign. And that, it seems, is likely to be the basis for any plan to resolve the crisis.


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      1.   Even if Hizbollah took over there`d be no peace in Lebanon 03:22  |  Conroy 13/05/08
      2.   Its the right thing to do! 04:03  |  Black Israel 13/05/08
      3.   to #2, wake up 04:57  |  disgusted 13/05/08
      4.   No, it still has not 05:24  |  Mark Lincoln 13/05/08
      5.   Michele Aoun 05:28  |  Mark Lincoln 13/05/08
      6.   Lebanon can never be independent! 05:33  |  Al 13/05/08
      7.   What a nightmare! 05:33  |  Mark Lincoln 13/05/08
      8.   Siniora is a fool 06:09  |  aaron 13/05/08
      9.   Failure to undestand 06:11  |  Mikesailor 13/05/08
      10.   Political thing 06:12  |  Isaaclevian 13/05/08
      11.   Israel 06:16  |  Isaaclevian 13/05/08
      12.   The Keystone Kops are alive and well 06:32  |  Natallie Durson 13/05/08
      13.   Aoun is an Agent of Syria 06:45  |  Liliane 13/05/08
      14.   Iran and Syria have taken over Lebanon 06:47  |  Laila 13/05/08
      15.   Today Seniora; tomorrow Abbas 06:49  |  Albert 13/05/08
      16.   Greedy hypocritical Europeans should boycott Syria and Iran 06:51  |  semsem 13/05/08
      17.   Wishfull thinking ! Christians fearing what ? 06:56  |  Ali Khreis 13/05/08
      18.   Inevitable result 07:09  |  Victor 13/05/08
      19.   #10 natalie THE hackneyed ORIGINAL 07:12  |  CK Tan 13/05/08
      20.   Zvi Barel, Sunni Arabs loathe Iran - Hezbolla 07:20  |  Maronite 13/05/08
      21.   The Arab implosion 07:38  |  Genuine Tosefta 13/05/08
      22.   It is all a ploy by CIA and Mossad 07:41  |  Secret Agent 13/05/08
      23.   Mr Black, you should add a chapter to Arab Nights Fantasies 08:02  |  Dan 13/05/08
      24.   Why Should Saniora Resign? 08:57  |  Loyal Lebanese 13/05/08
      25.   Wiam Wahab is not I repeat is not a memmber of the Parliment 09:49  |  Almutanaqal 13/05/08
      26.   Analysis 10:04  |  Analysis 13/05/08
      27.   New Reality 10:16  |  Imad 13/05/08
      28.   Ali Khreis 10:35  |  Michael 13/05/08
      29.   Lebanon and the reality on the ground 10:39  |  Akram 13/05/08
      30.   Correction 10:41  |  S.O. 13/05/08
      31.   aaron Amin brother. Siniora is a big fool like olmert 10:47  |  gus 13/05/08
      32.   Nimatallah Abi Nasir 10:47  |  Taha Mokhtar 13/05/08
      33.   Failure fo the government and its allies 11:05  |  Lobo08 13/05/08
      34.   Siniora;" On how to sit on a fence, without falling.". 11:26  |  Stephen. 13/05/08
      35.   The mafiosi Hariri and Jumblat betrayed Hezbollah 12:05  |  Aounist 13/05/08
      36.   nr 26 Analysis 12:11  |  Serge 13/05/08
      37.   The Crime Syndicate& its junior partner in crime have been set 13:17  |  lakshmi 13/05/08
      38.   #20 I agree with you 13:17  |  Ken 13/05/08
      39.   iran owns gaza and lebanon now, 13:38  |  POP 13/05/08
      40.   In gaza and beiroout they speak shiite nowadays 13:39  |  Lakshimi 13/05/08
      41.   Similarities to Hitler 13:45  |  ScotGuy 13/05/08
      42.   How long? 13:55  |  Sherlock Holmes 13/05/08
      43.   Lebanon in the hand of iran 14:04  |  shalom 13/05/08
      44.   To #32 Taha: Hizbullah is seeking to share power, not leadership 14:05  |  Aounist 13/05/08
      45.   The christians from Shouf will very soon be able to go back 14:18  |  Aounist 13/05/08
      46.   Countries built on Sectarianism bound to fail 14:25  |  El-Birawi 13/05/08
      47.   Maronite 20 14:35  |  ChanahS 13/05/08
      48.   In Lebanon, the new reality has taken over 14:47  |  ladybird 13/05/08
      49.   Ken, let`s face it, the Druze and Christians are finished 14:48  |  Simon 13/05/08
      50.   Collusion between Beirut Sunnis and Maronites 14:55  |  El-Birawi 13/05/08
      51.   Maronite you are dreaming, we tried that once. 14:58  |  Simon 13/05/08
      52.   The Mousehearted Hezbies died as civilians 14:59  |  x-ray 13/05/08
      53.   nr26 Analysis 15:22  |  to nr26Analysis 13/05/08
      54.   The Shiite Crescent 15:35  |  Mark Lincoln 13/05/08
      55.   Arab/Muslim choice: to oppress or to be opressed. 15:40  |  17 13/05/08
      56.   #26 My God wants Diplomacy, introduce us to your God 15:55  |  Simon 13/05/08
      57.   hanahS 47, Simon 49 Israel wants Hizbollah to fight its wars 16:17  |  Maronite 13/05/08
      58.   Lebanon 20:11  |  P. J. Casey 13/05/08
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