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Last update - 10:38 11/05/2008
ANALYSIS: Clashes in Beirut - not only Lebanon's problem
By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents
Tags: Israel, Fouad Siniora 

The minor civil war that was going on in Lebanon over the last few days, which apparently reached a temporary time-out on Saturday, should not immediately impact Israel's security situation. Hezbollah appears focused on improving its status in the Lebanese domestic arena, and does not seem to be seeking a direct confrontation with Israel. But on the slightly longer term, Israel's leaders should worry. One of the Olmert administration's few achievements from the Second Lebanon War may be undermined: the (partial) distancing of Hezbollah from Southern Lebanon by United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701.

Israeli intelligence recognizes that Hezbollah has recovered from the shock of the war in 2006. It has tripled its rocket supply, and weapons smuggling from Syria has continued uninterrupted. Its main consideration is ratcheting up pressure on its domestic adversaries, in complete coordination with its patron, Iran.

At a press conference on Saturday in Beirut, Lebanese Prime Minister Fouad Siniora appeared shocked by Hezbollah's violence, and at times ready to cry, as he did in August 2006. However Siniora and the other members of the anti-Syrian camp should not be surprised at the military capabilities of the Shi'ite group or its willingness to turn its weapons on its political rivals. For years, successive Lebanese governments have not demanded unconditionally that Hezbollah lay down its arms. They may have deluded themselves that Hezbollah's joining the parliament, and later the government, would moderate the group (like Hamas and the Palestinian
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uthority).

Siniora was forced to remind his listeners on Saturday that Hezbollah had pledged not to resort to armed resistence, except against Israel, and he attacked Hezbollah over its attempted coup. But in the end he raised a white flag: His government, he said, had not published a decision to dismantle the Hezbollah communication network. The Lebanese army has also not done so.

Siniora said Saturday Hezbollah is "all of Lebanon's problem." But it is not only Lebanon's. On Israel's southern and northern borders are pro-Iranian extensions, and conflict with them is not a question of if but rather when.

Hezbollah has so far not outrightly contravened Resolution 1701 and renewed its armed presence along Israel's border. But with a weak Lebanese military and a hesitant UNIFIL, Nasrallah might do so in the future. For Israel, preoccupied with Olmert's latest investigation, apparently preparing for elections and hesitating in the face of rocket ttacks from Gaza, this might be another serious challenge, coming at a not particularly convenient time.

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