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Last update - 01:06 11/05/2008 ANALYSIS: Hezbollah, Lebanon gov't are boxers girding for next round By Zvi Bar'el, Haaretz Correspondent Tags: Fuad Siniora, Lebanon, Beirut  The relative quiet in Lebanon Saturday was like the quiet before the bell marking the end of a round in a boxing match. Each side counts its bruises and its achievements. These will be displayed on Sunday when the Arab League foreign ministers convene an emergency session in Beirut to propose another mediation attempt. By then the initial outlines of the country's new political map may be apparent: Hezbollah's assault on government positions, the shooting in the streets of Beirut, Sidon and other cities, and especially the threat to continue the assault, are meant to lead to the next step. In deciding on Saturday to reverse last week's cabinet resolutions that set off the fighting, Prime Minister Fuad Siniora took a necessary first step. The resolutions were to dismantle Hezbollah's private telephone network in the South and a few other sites and to dismiss airport security chief Major General Wafiq Shukeir, who has ties to Hezbollah. The second step will be renewing national dialogue to form a new government and to finally appoint a new president after nearly a year and a half of postponements. To achieve the first goal, Siniora may have to resign or agree to a unity government in which Hezbollah and its allies will be big enough to have veto power over the cabinet's cardinal decisions. The government is totally opposed to this, but it could pave the way to the appointment of the presidential candidate, Lebanese Army commander Michel Suleiman. Advertisement In the absence of such an agreement, an alternate proposal will likely be offered: Suleiman will be named acting prime minister, instead of president, and will call new elections on condition that a new election law that conforms with Hezbollah's demands is passed. Without the adoption of one of these compromises - which constitute a major concession on the part of the cabinet and the parliamentary majority - the political crisis that began over a year ago will continue to feed the threat of a new civil war. At the same time, Hezbollah will have to decide whether to transfer to army control the positions it took last week. Lebanese commentators believe Hezbollah wants to prove it is a national, not sectarian, organization and thus will obey army directives while making its own demands. These could include making the army responsible for deciding whether Hezbollah has a military need for an independent telephone network. Hezbollah is gambling that the army will decide in its favor, dealing another tactical loss to the government. But the army's real test will be its will and ability to drive the armed militants from the streets. For the army, 30 percent of which is Shi'ite, that will truly test its capability as a national force. In any event, Hezbollah has already achieved its goal of being the catalyst for the next political round of the match, in which it is hoping for a knockout: achieving formal control of Lebanese politics, not just de facto control of the streets. That would definitely be good news for Syria, which this weekend was sentenced to another year of U.S. sanctions. After all, Syria has the key to the success of any Lebanese compromise deal, a key that has grown rusty over the past year. Related articles: Hezbollah fighters retreat from Beirut after 37 die in clashes Lebanon prime minister accuses Hezbollah of staging coup News / Nasrallah: Mughniyah's blood will lead to Israel's end Bookmark to del.icio.us   A top priority Barack Obama: We will keep Israel's security a priority. Tale of a key Cartoon film on Nakba describes Jews as 'enemies of homeland'.   1.   nasrallah! 00:55  |  bashar 11/05/08   2.   #1 here we go with the propoganda 04:43  |  Just Facts 11/05/08   3.   Hezbollah v Agents of Israel 06:51  |  Natallie Durson 11/05/08   4.   Don`t count on it 07:03  |  Natallie Durson 11/05/08   5.   Hizbullah 08:39  |  Mark 11/05/08   6.   Hezbollah has the military power 08:52  |  Ron 11/05/08   7.   The basic problem 08:58  |  Mark Lincoln 11/05/08   8.   Get Real Natalie 09:01  |  Mark Lincoln 11/05/08

Read & React Lebanon PM: Hezbollah is worse than Israel Responses: 244 Gideon Levy: PM probe raises serious questions about U.S. Jewry-Israel relations Responses: 69 Zvi Bar'el: Israel is ignoring the possibility Hezbollah may soon run Lebanon Responses: 44 Tales from a N.Y. cabby: 'My first wife was Muslim, my second was Jewish' Responses: 53 Editorial: For the first time it seems Olmert's hard core of loyalists is collapsing Responses: 26 Rosner's Domain What Does It Mean To Be "Pro-Israel"? Malley will not advise Obama (WTR) Poll: What happend in Lebanon? Obama and the Jews: is 61% enough? Who's pushing the US to war with Iran? (WTR) More Headlines 22:33 Lebanon PM: Hezbollah is worse than Israel 22:37 Talansky: I gave Olmert election funds, not sure how he spent it 22:42 Ex-IDF Chief: Hezbollah control of Lebanon may benefit Israel 20:02 President Peres: Hamas has rockets, but it has no future 19:03 Three Qassams hit Negev, one explodes near schoolbus 18:52 Jerusalem planners okay route of new bridge to Mugrabi Gate 17:08 Cartoon film on Nakba describes Jews as 'enemies of homeland' 20:54 Israel relaxes criteria for Holocaust survivors' stipends 22:43 Junior lecturers to disrupt studies in protest against work conditions 17:35 Israel gets first look at prototype of revolutionary electric car 17:55 UN asks Israel to probe raid which killed Gaza teacher last week 19:41 World War II veterans mark VE day in Jerusalem march 19:25 Chelsea draw with Bolton makes Man. United Premier League champions 17:35 Tourism Min. seeks to open Ben-Gurion Airport at night Previous Editions Select Day 09 may 08 may 07 may 06 may 05 may 04 may 02 may 01 may 30 apr 29 apr 28 apr 27 apr

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