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Last update - 04:44 09/05/2008 Olmert suspected of accepting illicit funds from American businessman ANALYSIS / The PM seems crushed in face of allegations By Yossi Verter Tags: Ehud Olmert, Israel, Likud  "It's all an election finance matter," Olmert wrote to the government ministers in a lengthy series of notes he sent them at the cabinet meeting earlier this week. "The drama is because of the gag order and the urgent questioning. The headlines will disappoint in a couple of days." One note after another Olmert wrote, urgently, as if his life depended on these pieces of paper. One of the ministers who knows his handwriting well, from dozens of previous notes, looked them over and was astonished. The prime minister's stylized and rounded handwriting had changed in a single day into the sad handwriting of a battered, haunted man. Advertisement "It wasn't the same determined Olmert, who runs meetings with a firm hand, shouts, bangs on the table," another minister said. "He spoke with difficulty, kept swallowing, appeared completely crushed." After that meeting, reminiscent of sitting shiva, Olmert met privately with Defense Minister Ehud Barak, a custom they have kept to assiduously every Sunday since Barak joined the cabinet. Olmert presented his version in full to Barak. Barak is Olmert's lifeline, at least in the immediate future. He might also be his undertaker. So long as Barak remains in the government, Olmert remains prime minister. Following that conversation, Barak told his associates that Olmert has a 50-50 chance of survival, much better odds than the media gives him. On the one hand, sources in Barak's circle say, apparently this time the matter is serious, documented, backed up by incriminating testimony from confidants. On the other hand, we've seen previous investigations open to great fanfare and end in nothing, or nearly nothing. And we are also familiar with Olmert's amazing survival skills, which, in cat math, still leave him two lives - at least. In any event, a Barak associate said this week, we in the Labor Party will not rush to stick the knife in Olmert. Barak is not in a hurry to go anywhere. As far as he's concerned, resignation from the government is the result of an indictment. So long as there is no indictment, or even a recommendation to indict, there is no need even to think about resigning. And once there is an indictment, it will be necessary to think long and hard about what to do. In the coming week, until President George Bush departs, nothing will happen. What will happen afterward? Hard to tell. Clearly if an indictment is filed, Olmert will pack his bags. Politics will be in an awful uproar. There may be attempts to form a substitute government in this Knesset. Barak will play a key role in any political development, as will Shas Chair Eli Yishai. Here the assessments in Barak's circle are split. Some think Barak would agree to continue as defense minister in a substitute government, say one headed by Tzipi Livni, should she indeed take the Kadima reins after Olmert resigns. "Where exactly will Barak go and what's waiting for him in elections? Netanyahu? Did he leave everything and return to politics to be Bibi's defense minister?" one source commented, referring to opposition leader Benajamin Netanyahu. Others believe Barak would prefer elections. "We must not let Livni get comfortable in the prime minister's seat. That would be political suicide. Better to go to elections with Labor led by Barak and Kadima led by Livni. It's the center-left bloc's only chance of getting enough Knesset seats to form a government in the next Knesset." Experience shows that when close associates express opposite opinions, that means that the man himself, Barak, has yet to make up his mind. Or he has decided and is deliberately spreading contradictory messages and obfuscation, because that's the way he likes it. At small internal meetings of Labor's leadership, somebody had this suggestion: "We'll let Livni serve as premier for a year. We all know she'll buckle under the pressure, that she lacks skills, that she doesn't have supportive backing of the experienced and weighty sort. In the end we'll wind up benefiting. Who will vote for Kadima after such a term in office?" And somebody else replied: "It's too risky a gamble. You don't let CSKA take to the court, win in the first three quarters and hope it falls apart in the final quarter." Olmert, for his part, if forced to resign in the wake of an indictment against him, will do everything in his power - and he still has a few political moves left in him - to prevent Livni from taking over. If he manages somehow to survive this affair as well, he will shed Livni at the first opportunity. Meanwhile, people who had business this week at the Prime Minister's Bureau said they felt like they had wandered into a disaster zone: doom and gloom, bowed heads, weeping secretaries incapable of focusing on their work, a feeling that it will all be over any moment now. A bad scene, one visitor to the office said. Related articles: ANALYSIS / The PM seems crushed in face of allegations BACKGROUND / Olmert's financier, a fundraiser who prefers to avoid the limelight Following PM probe revelations, MKs call for his resignation Bookmark to del.icio.us   Stronger than its ills The 60th anniversary celebrations are accompanied by a bad taste. Rise in racism Israeli Arabs say institutionalized racism has increased.   1.   It also makes it difficult for Netanyahu to become the next PM 00:02  |  Absolute Sweden 09/05/08   2.   Barak as "undertaker." 00:09  |  Ode to our PM 09/05/08   3.   Reading this Machiavellian politics is disgusting! 00:16  |  bat yam 09/05/08   4.   The panorama... 00:37  |  Esther 09/05/08   5.   Israel`s Leaders - A Real Disgrace 01:29  |  Tod Zuckerman 09/05/08   6.   A great hurrah! 02:15  |  Mark Lincoln 09/05/08   7.   Good riddance 02:22  |  Bongo 09/05/08   8.   This article is just Barak briefing Verter 02:56  |  Rowan 09/05/08   9.   Barak as "undertaker" # 2. 03:22  |  Gerry 09/05/08   10.   oLMERT SHOULD HAVE BEEN FORCED OUT A LONG TIME AGO 03:33  |  THE WARRIOR 09/05/08   11.   Barak if you`re Olmerts lifeline, throw him an anchor 04:14  |  * BEN JABO 09/05/08   12.   failure of democracy 04:25  |  K 09/05/08   13.   Personal message 04:43  |  Meir 09/05/08   14.   Yossi Verter is a cynic 04:51  |  JustMe 09/05/08   15.   Ehud Olmert`s Legacy 05:37  |  Norman F Birnberg 09/05/08   16.   G-D IS GREAT!ALL GUSH QATIF CRIMINALS MUST GO!SHARON,OLMERT,MAZUZ 06:01  |  VOICE of MOSHIACH))) 09/05/08   17.   New elections should be the only correct way to go 06:20  |  Gelfilte Fish 09/05/08   18.   Actually, Olmert case is very similar to "Amutot Barak" Whatever 08:01  |  Sima 09/05/08   19.   How much was Barak Paid to be so Patient??? 09:15  |  Dagma 09/05/08   20.   For Mark Lincoln on Second Samuel 6: 14 # 6 09:35  |  Clickfool 09/05/08   21.   Due process 11:13  |  Yossi 09/05/08   22.   The whole analysis about Barak`s alternatives is WRONG! 12:12  |  S 09/05/08   23.   Olmert 18:51  |  Joe Rosen 09/05/08   24.   "We all know she`ll buckle under the pressure": The Suicide Left 19:02  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 09/05/08   25.   PM Olmert 23:07  |  Ivri Anochi 09/05/08   26.   Calling all FRIARS: VOTE FOR BB!!! 12:51  |  Bob 10/05/08

Read & React British PM: Israel`s creation one of 20th century`s `greatest achievements` Responses: 280 Ahmadinejad: Israel is a 'stinking corpse' doomed to disappear Responses: 304 Key witness 'fears Olmert may seek to harm him' Responses: 90 Jews bend over backward to stay neutral in U.S. vote Responses: 101 Jerome Segal: Through tough love, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict can be ended Responses: 119 11 die in clashes as Hezbollah seizes West Beirut Responses: 498 Rosner's Domain Obama and the Jews: is 61% enough? Who's pushing the US to war with Iran? (WTR) Poll: If Olmert is gone, who should be PM? What Muslims really think? (WTR) The Democrats are fighting over Iran More Headlines 12:40 Sderot home takes direct hit as 9 Qassams strike Negev 13:04 Lebanese army moves into W. Beirut after Hezbollah takeover 07:17 Key witness 'fears Olmert may seek to harm him' 12:56 White House calls on Iran, Syria to halt support for Hezbollah 12:10 Palestinians: Gaza-Egypt border opens temporarily 22:24 Rabbi testifies in support of Hamas-linked imam facing U.S. ban 07:32 ANALYSIS / Olmert probe shows the media really is the message 02:18 Olmert probe stirs resignation calls; Labor: We'll remain in gov't 12:34 Hunt for kosher chicken causes headache for Apprentice 'Jewish' contestant 06:25 Chelsea's Grant becomes first Israeli to win manager of month Previous Editions Select Day 09 may 08 may 07 may 06 may 05 may 04 may 02 may 01 may 30 apr 29 apr 28 apr 27 apr

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