Subscribe to Print Edition | Mon., May 05, 2008 Nisan 30, 5768 | | Israel Time: 18:55 (EST+7)
Haaretz israel news English
web haaretz.com
  Back to Homepage
Rosner's Domain
Diplomacy
Defense Jewish World Opinion National
Print Edition
Advertising
Books Arts & Leisure Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File
Last update - 08:26 04/05/2008
ANALYSIS: Is this where it all ends for Ehud Olmert?
By Yossi Verter
Tags: Tzipi Livni, corruption 

When a supporter of Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Saturday "That's it, it's over," it was not clear whether he was asking a question or stating a fact. This was a statement repeated in different words over and over during the weekend - by ministers, MKs and political allies. Like everyone else, they were all in the dark, driven by rumors, hints, innuendos, flying through the cellular telephony at tremendous speeds.

Even the more experienced among them, the veterans of past affairs and the two Winograd Committee reports, are sounding defeated. They did not know how to defend themselves against this enormous tidal wave. On the one hand, the law enforcement and the prosecution were leaking that it was a most serious affair that would bring an end to Olmert's tenure as PM; on the other hand, the court is preventing the man under investigation to talk and present his version of the story.

Those on the right who wish for Olmert's fall also found it difficult to come to terms with this upsetting decision. Would an American court prevent president Clinton from responding to the allegations against him in the Lewinsky case? Or president Nixon on Watergate? Olmert had been waiting eagerly for May 2008, a month that would be filled with positive headlines, pomp and ceremony: Independence Day festivities, and then the visit of President George W. Bush, followed by the visits of French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, and other leaders. Since the Second Lebanon War he did not have it so good. He believed that the worst was behind him: that nothing would come of the probes against him, and that he would make progress in talks with the Palestinians, or would have some surprising result on the Syrian track.
Advertisement
He was already feeling as though "he had emerged from the grave," a source close to him said. And then the skies fell and the earth split open. All over again. This is the fifth investigation in two years. This could be the critical mass that will break even an experienced survivor like Olmert.

The worst-case scenario for Olmert is this: when the gag order is lifted, the details of the case will be revealed, and there will be a public and media outcry that will soon be taken up by the politicians. He will lose his support in Kadima and Ehud Barak will announce that Labor cannot remain in a coalition headed by a man with such terrible stigma. From that point to Olmert's fall or resignation, the path will be short, painful and embarrassing.

In this scenario, questions raised by the first Winograd report will reemerge: Will the deputy prime minister, Tzipi Livni, fill in for Olmert, for the defined period until elections? Will a new government be set up, and by whom? Or will there be no way to avoid elections before the end of 2008?

If we believe the leaks, this is more or less what is expecting us. If we believe a different version, this case is more monetary-political than monetary-personal. We have seen these before, more than once. Meanwhile, the coalition has lost three precious members; the Pensioners seem to have reached the conclusion that their days in the Knesset are numbered, and have decided to jump a sinking ship. Ehud Barak, who may play a crucial role in the future political drama, is silent - except for a curt statement wishing that Olmert's innocence will be proven. Barak intends to keep quiet until the curtain is lifted. From his point of view, until the attorney general speaks, he is not going to promise any action.

Sunday marks two years to the formation of the Olmert government. This is not they way he wished to celebrate this date.

Related articles:
  • Sources: New evidence against PM is substantive
  • Police call Ehud Olmert for urgent questioning
  • Justice Ministry: Contrary to reports, no discussion of Olmert's suspension
    • Bookmark to del.icio.us  
     
    Under probe
    Olmert stays focused on work despite new allegations.
    Taxi Hamas
    Hamas police cars serve as taxis in fuel-starved Gaza.
      1.   An old Israeli trick: Change PM to restart negotiations from zero 04:27  |  Aounist 04/05/08
      2.   The truth is Olmert should have been forced out a long time ago 04:46  |  Kipperraes 04/05/08
      3.   You Don`t Understand Democracies...Sad For You #1 05:10  |  Yona 04/05/08
      4.   No. 1, Aounist, this shows where you live 06:56  |  Sam C 04/05/08
      5.   End ? 06:59  |  Rick 04/05/08
      6.   all HOT air 07:31  |  tony harris 04/05/08
      7.   Not the End for Olmert 08:15  |  MiddleStanian 04/05/08
      8.   Next week this will all be history and Olmert 08:41  |  Doreen 04/05/08
      9.   Something to add 08:57  |  Alvaro Katz 04/05/08
      10.   OLMERT`S VISITORS NOTHING TO BRAG ABOUT 08:58  |  Arik Silverman 04/05/08
      11.   Olmerts fresh scandal 09:51  |  Barrieg 04/05/08
      12.   My dear Israeli people, are you really your own worst enemy...??? 10:02  |  Swiss (Dino) 04/05/08
      13.   Berlesconi ate his own booger 10:03  |  Dror 04/05/08
      14.   Olmert`s fall is Pollard`s revenge 10:05  |  Daniel Jackson 04/05/08
      15.   Coup D`etat 10:10  |  Dror 04/05/08
      16.   Please just resign or suspend yourself 10:11  |  Dror 04/05/08
      17.   ends for Ehud Olmert 10:12  |  Ralph 04/05/08
      18.   #4 Sam C. on Aounist 10:16  |  Yonatan 04/05/08
      19.   @ Swiss Dino 10:22  |  Ralph 04/05/08
      20.   why now? 10:46  |  Cipora Julanna Kohn 04/05/08
      21.   Swiss (Dingo) what a surprise 10:49  |  Gil 04/05/08
      22.   Swiss (Dingo) what a surprise 10:50  |  Gil 04/05/08
      23.   The most useless Prime Minister Israel has ever had 10:57  |  Clickfool 04/05/08
      24.   What does his family think of him? 10:58  |  Dror 04/05/08
      25.   How the mighty have fallen 11:03  |  Dror 04/05/08
      26.   Its about time. Just get him outta office 11:10  |  SLAVO 04/05/08
      27.   # 3 yona...your response to #1 is moot 11:12  |  eric 04/05/08
      28.   Reply to Dror in Haifa (Post No. 21) 12:09  |  Johnny Weintraub 04/05/08
      29.   To the moonbat in MIlwaukee 12:25  |  Freethinker 04/05/08
      30.   # 19 Ralph 13:34  |  Swiss (Dino) 04/05/08
      31.   Nice!! 13:36  |  Mark Lebanese 04/05/08
      32.   I would sure hope so 13:37  |  goodbyekadima 04/05/08
      33.   # 22 Gil 13:46  |  Swiss (Dino) 04/05/08
      34.   to the Click 13:50  |  jake 04/05/08
      35.   # 18 : Sam is right 14:10  |  Jake 04/05/08
      36.   Aunist-go check your telephone line to Iran 14:16  |  Alan 04/05/08
      37.   Israel at 60: *Maybe* Some Fresh Air At Last? 14:31  |  Ovadiah ben Avraham 04/05/08
      38.   Aounists have affiliated themselves with Iran and Hezbollah 14:51  |  Sam 04/05/08
      39.   Timing and Tanatos 15:06  |  Fortuna Benmayor 04/05/08
      40.   Olmert has failed the owners of Israel 15:17  |  Chris Linthwaite 04/05/08
      41.   OLMERT*SPITZER*OLMERT*SPITZER*OLMERT*SPITZER 15:39  |  SPTZ 04/05/08
      42.   simple mathematic ; OLMERT = ISRAEL= 60 YEARS BLINDNESS 16:26  |  Atilla Karagözoğlu 04/05/08
      43.   -Yawn- Nothing new here 16:38  |  JonathanInTelAviv 04/05/08
      44.   TALKING ABOUT OLMERT IS JUST WASTING TIME 16:41  |  study the rivers ... 04/05/08
      45.   Swiss (Dino) #30 Re Ralph, Dino Seems you don`t 16:45  |  Gil 04/05/08
      46.   Swiss (Dino) #30 Re Ralph, Dino Seems you don`t 16:46  |  Gil 04/05/08
      47.   To Doreen # 8 - Next week this time...... 16:56  |  Dolly 04/05/08
      48.   Certainly NOT! 16:59  |  Dagma 04/05/08
      49.   Olmert says `He has an Agenda.....` 17:37  |  Natasha 04/05/08
      50.   The Israeli crimes make Iran look like a saint 18:11  |  Aounist 04/05/08
      51.   #1 Auonist, I think you`re on to something. 19:14  |  hollingsworth 04/05/08
      52.   Whatever it takes.. 19:17  |  hollingsworth 04/05/08
      53.   # 46 Gil 19:18  |  Swiss (Dino) 04/05/08
      54.   Not only for Olmert but for the malignant coalition too. 19:40  |  Chaim 04/05/08
      55.   The rule of law and democracies are never pretty but this is the 19:42  |  r 04/05/08
      56.   Aounist and taking negotiations seriously 19:45  |  Sam 04/05/08
      57.   To 20 Cipora Julianna Kohn - No Time like the Right Time! 20:51  |  Dolly 04/05/08
      58.   Swiss (Dino) #53 thanks for proving my point 20:58  |  Gil 04/05/08
      59.   What Else Is New? 22:09  |  chet 04/05/08
      60.   To Aounist # 50 - Lest we forget Arafat..... 22:19  |  Natasha 04/05/08
      61.   #53, Dino, POOR EUROPE 23:59  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 04/05/08
      62.   #50 Aounist. Iran is a superpower only in your feverish dreams. 00:05  |  Chaim 05/05/08
      63.   # 58 Gil 00:06  |  Swiss (Dino) 05/05/08
      64.   #63, Dino, 00:42  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 05/05/08
      65.   Swiss (Fossil) 01:27  |  Dror 05/05/08
      66.   Resignation is needed 02:07  |  Brod 05/05/08
      67.   # 64 Cipora Julianna Kohn 02:08  |  Swiss (Dino) 05/05/08
      68.   # 65 Dror 02:18  |  Swiss (Dino) 05/05/08
      69.   olmert 04:10  |  azad 05/05/08
      70.   OLMERT AND ZIONISM 08:03  |  indrajaya 05/05/08
      71.   So Dino has a backup plan 08:49  |  Dror 05/05/08