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Last update - 09:46 29/04/2008
ANALYSIS / IDF behaving as if there is no truce on horizon
By Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondent
Tags: Gaza, Hamas, IDF

The Israel Defense Forces avoided accepting any form of responsibility for the death of Miyasar Abu Muatak and her four young children in a shanty neighborhood of Beit Hanun Monday. According to the army's version, the mother and children were not killed by two missiles fired from an aircraft, as the Palestinians maintain, but as a result of "secondary explosions." The missiles were aimed at two Islamic Jihad militants that had been identified carrying large bags, which are believed to have included explosive devices. As a result of the blast, the shed which was the family's home was destroyed. Defense Minister Ehud Barak did not bother with the details. As far as he was concerned, he said Monday, only Hamas - whose gunmen operate among civilians - are responsible for the death of "uninvolved civilians."

The Israeli version relies on descriptions by Givati Brigade officers, who called in the aircraft, and on photos of the damage. Also important is the type of munitions that Israel has deployed in recent years in the Gaza Strip. They are lethal, but more precise, so their collateral damage is relatively limited. The damage evident at the site of the killing is much more like that caused by the detonation of a large explosive device.

It is hard to imagine that the army, after seven and a half years of the second intifada, does not appreciate the need to immediately respond in the media. Most likely is that photos, if it has them, do not provide unequivocal evidence to boost the IDF's claims.
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It is also doubtful whether the release of photographs will make a difference. The Hamas media warned Monday of an Israeli "campaign to exterminate the Palestinian people." The scenes from Beit Hanun offered perfect proof as far as the radical Islamic group is concerned. The foreign media, who only emerge from their slumber after scenes like this, are also certain who is responsible for the killing of women and children: Israel.

Even if the Palestinian version is debatable, there have been plenty of precedents in the Strip: from the killing of the seven members of the Ghalia family on the Gaza beach in June 2006 (responsibility for which Israel denied), to the artillery barrage that killed 19 civilians in Beit Hanun in November that year.

Nonetheless, it is not at all certain that Monday's killing will affect the cease-fire negotiations. The Hamas political leadership is very keen to achieve a hudna, a cease-fire, even though the group's military wing has reservations. It is possible that Hamas will make do with the Qassam barrages it fired Monday as the appropriate Palestinian response to the incident. Its real test will be its ability to impose its will on the smaller factions, and Tuesday will be critical in signaling which way the situation may go. Representatives of Hamas and the smaller Palestinian factions are scheduled to meet in Cairo with representatives of Egyptian intelligence.

For the time being the IDF is behaving as if there is no hudna on the horizon. The attacks inside the Strip continue as usual, based on the argument that a cease-fire is not effective and the "ticking bombs" - imminent terrorist attacks - are still ticking. Intelligence seems to back this position. But from a diplomatic point of view, it is difficult to comprehend Israel's stance: Even if a cease-fire collapses, as the senior officers argue, why not allow the Palestinians to be the ones who break it?

Israel was drawn into a hudna after Egyptian pressure and the government's concerns that a major ground operation in Gaza would result in heavy IDF casualties. But the government is not pleased with the idea of a cease-fire: It seems there is a zero-sum game mentality dominating the political leadership. After all, they argue, if Hamas is so desperate for a cease-fire, it can't be a good thing for Israel. Khaled Meshal, the head of the Hamas politburo in Damascus, did nothing to assuage Israel's concerns on Sunday, when he declared that any cease-fire will be a temporary hiatus in the fighting, which will allow Hamas to strengthen its ranks for the next confrontation. It is therefore no wonder that the IDF is pushing to carry out as many strikes as possible before a cease-fire
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  1.   Cease Fire Must Include Plan to Prevent Rearming 03:29  |  DoubleClick 29/04/08
  2.   I fully trust the IDF 04:00  |  Protected Civilian 29/04/08
  3.   ANTI OLMERT JEWS WILL STOP OLMERTS DEFEATISM AND STOP HAMAS 05:17  |  Charles Weiss 29/04/08
  4.   Probably correct 05:17  |  Mark Lincoln 29/04/08
  5.   Harel is being too kind..... 05:21  |  Johnboy 29/04/08
  6.   The reason for killing 05:21  |  Mark Lincoln 29/04/08
  7.   Israel and the IDF are never wrong... 05:25  |  Silvienne 29/04/08
  8.   Redsmith - ""Bomber Harris" 05:31  |  Mark Lincoln 29/04/08
  9.   My view of `cease fire." 05:37  |  Mark Lincoln 29/04/08
  10.   Even that most irresponisble of allies 05:42  |  Mark Lincoln 29/04/08
  11.   from a diplomatic point of view??? 06:21  |  Akiva P 29/04/08
  12.   DoubleClick@#1 06:24  |  Akiva P 29/04/08
  13.   napalm Hamas funeral processions 06:26  |  Akiva P 29/04/08
  14.   Ceasefire ? Israel NEVER Learns 06:33  |  Tod Zuckerman 29/04/08
  15.   Mark Lincoln, inre:The reason for killing 06:38  |  Akiva P 29/04/08
  16.   Silvienne is almost always wrong. 06:40  |  Akiva P 29/04/08
  17.   O, contrare! Mark Lincoln, your view entirely simplistic! 06:45  |  Akiva P 29/04/08
  18.   Hudna, Shmudna... Iran is laughing at it. 06:49  |  Fortuna Benmayor 29/04/08
  19.   Harel`s spin 07:02  |  howiej 29/04/08
  20.   Mark Lincoln, et al, try learning the facts 07:15  |  howiej 29/04/08
  21.   napalm your stupidity#13 07:59  |  syd 29/04/08
  22.   The war criminals in Tel-Aviv are at it again 08:08  |  Joe 29/04/08
  23.   Israel never accepts a poor deal. Crying about it is propaganda 08:30  |  Natallie Durson 29/04/08
  24.   Is Israel winning the war in Gaza? 08:47  |  Jean Van Daem 29/04/08
  25.   Haaretz Editors Perpetuate Palestinian Propaganda 09:02  |  Daniel 29/04/08
  26.   Are children and women more valuable than adult males? 09:54  |  redmike 29/04/08
  27.   What a vile, despicable jerk 09:56  |  Clickfool 29/04/08
  28.   Open your eyes, think and see the horrific truth about Israel 10:02  |  Clickfool 29/04/08
  29.   The problem is that Zionists are not human 10:19  |  Chanalau, Tova 29/04/08
  30.   HUDNA is NOT a truce.An Arab " truce", not a Western truce 10:20  |  PETER SM 29/04/08
  31.   Are `Pals` interested in Peace? 10:21  |  lily 29/04/08
  32.   For Redmike # 26 10:31  |  Clickfool 29/04/08
  33.   "JOE" from Texas. Big hat,no cattle 10:47  |  PETER SM 29/04/08
  34.   C.FOOL Congratulations! 10:52  |  PETER SM 29/04/08
  35.   Hamas truce? no thanks 10:54  |  Daniel 29/04/08
  36.   NDURSON Israel actually does.They accepted partition & got invade 10:55  |  PETER SM 29/04/08
  37.   Amos Harel 11:07  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 29/04/08
  38.   The killing machine has to be busy 11:16  |  El-Birawi 29/04/08
  39.   What Truce? Only Haaretz and Hamas have called for one! 11:20  |  Baruch Gold 29/04/08
  40.   idf behaving etc 11:24  |  elliot 29/04/08
  41.   I`ll anser your question, Amos 11:36  |  Yonatan 29/04/08
  42.   The foreign media are wrong! It is not israel but the murderous 11:38  |  lakshmi 29/04/08
  43.   silvienne the stupid and belief in the media ! 11:38  |  v hardman 29/04/08
  44.   #13 11:38  |  Michael 29/04/08
  45.   amos harel what is the point of the ceasefire you pine for 11:39  |  joshuabennun 29/04/08
  46.   #29 tova the bad and looking in to her own reflection 11:40  |  v hardman 29/04/08
  47.   the task of going after them will not get easier 11:45  |  zimri 29/04/08
  48.   #22 11:51  |  Michael 29/04/08
  49.   #27-28 Clickfool - Wrong Weltanschauung 11:51  |  Yonatan 29/04/08
  50.   IDF WISE NOT TO TRUST ANY ISLAMIC TRUCE OR HUDNA ?? 11:52  |  Bill 29/04/08
  51.   The Israeli Defence Force 12:08  |  Made up name 29/04/08
  52.   Pseudo-unspun IDF propaganda 12:34  |  Rowan 29/04/08
  53.   #32 Clickfool - "it has always been the view" 12:39  |  redmike 29/04/08
  54.   HAHA 13:29  |  Jewl 29/04/08
  55.   Muslims have never in history made 13:44  |  rich 29/04/08
  56.   #55 Rich 14:04  |  Chris Linthwaite 29/04/08
  57.   ehud barak and gabi ashkenazi 14:09  |  harzion 29/04/08
  58.   ehud barak you went to beirut dressed as a woman 14:24  |  harzion 29/04/08
  59.   if israel accepts a ceasefire then we have lost 14:28  |  harzion 29/04/08
  60.   the time of giving way to authority has gone 14:36  |  harzion 29/04/08
  61.   who were our senior officers in 1967? 14:41  |  harzion 29/04/08
  62.   i would support ehud barak as prime minister 14:47  |  harzion 29/04/08
  63.   MADE UP NAME.Meshal said to Al Jazeera the struggle will continue 14:58  |  PETER SM 29/04/08
  64.   63 Peter SM you make it sound as if Mishal is committing a crime 15:09  |  lakshmi 29/04/08
  65.   no ceasefire ever with gaza and hamas 15:14  |  harzion 29/04/08
  66.   Amos Harel`s Spin 15:17  |  Jeff Northridge 29/04/08
  67.   why did gaza attack us when we left 15:17  |  harzion 29/04/08
  68.   LAKSHMI Mashal is rejecting Israel in stages.Nothing to do with 15:22  |  PETER SM 29/04/08
  69.   #63 Peter SM 15:25  |  Made up Name 29/04/08
  70.   Chris Linthwaite 15:30  |  rich 29/04/08
  71.