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Presidential Primaries / Clinton after Penn. triumph - reinvigorated but broke
By Shmuel Rosner

Democratic Senator Evan Bayh from Indiana wanted to be president of the United States. He has the right look - broad shoulders, a nice smile baring white teeth, good hair days. When his party's crazy primaries began two years ago, he was on the list of 20-plus possible candidates. But he didn't demonstrate the required grit and perseverance and, to his credit, knew when to quit. Some think he still hopes to be Hillary Clinton's running mate and then take a shot at the presidency in the future.

One way or another, the next two weeks are his time. Senator Bayh is the one slated to present Clinton to Indiana's voters, who will go to the polls in two weeks. His aid could be significant: Bayh, former governor of Indiana and a senator's son, is one of the most popular people in Indiana. Possibly the most popular.
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Clinton won in Pennsylvania as she won in Ohio. The same coalition of white working class, small-towners, villagers, older people and women. Here too she was at a disadvantage among black, young and new voters. She conducted the same blatant campaign, pounding and slandering Obama.

Pennsylvania's Jewish vote was similar to the vote breakdown in the rest of the population - 57 percent for Clinton, 43 percent for Obama. Obama's people could say this proves that he has no "Jewish problem." Clinton's people could counter that the Jews, according to education, income and political position indices, should have voted for Obama in numbers far above the national average, not less.

Clinton finished the race encouraged but broke. Obama, with much deeper pockets, forced her to spend more and more money. Her next important test will be in translating the victory into cash, or she will be unable to continue at this pace.

Obama, with more delegates and more money, is still leading, but the day after her victory, momentum seemed have shifted back to her side. All she needed was to insert a sliver of doubt into his campaign, and in that she succeeded. Calls for her to quit now have been silenced. In that silence can be heard mutterings of worry over Obama's faltering drive to bring the most significant population groups to the polls.

Many black people voted for Obama, whose most impressive victories have been in university towns, among students. In this respect, the massive rallies with young people are misleading to a certain extent. It is exactly how candidate George McGovern was buoyed to the party's candidacy by younger voters' anger at the Vietnam War, and from there to a humiliating failure in the general election against Richard Nixon.

North Carolina, where Obama has a clear lead, votes on the same day as Indiana. He will get the delegates, but the doubt remains: his advantage is based on the high number of blacks in the state. The following races also seem predetermined - Oregon to Obama, Kentucky to Clinton, West Virginia to Clinton and Montana to Obama. She must produce at least one surprise to undermine Obama's gradual progress toward the candidacy.

"Now it's up to you Indiana," Obama said in his concession speech in Evansville, Indiana, on Tuesday. In the north of the state, he will count on the proximity to Illinois, his state, in the hope it votes like Chicago. In the south, Clinton will count on its closeness to Kentucky, hoping its voters will vote for her too.

It is hard to tell from the polls how Indiana will vote. The last two polls show Obama in the lead, but Clinton is ahead in the last months' average. Even if she wins in the end, her path to the nomination is far from assured. Obama will have more votes and more delegates.

Only a most convincing argument would sway the superdelegates - who will determine the race - in her direction and persuade them to rebel against the voters' will.

After his experience in Philadelphia last week, Obama refused to face Clinton for another debate in North Carolina. She will probably take advantage of that and say he is afraid. She would be right - except that she would have done exactly the same. She could only gain from such a debate, while he could only lose. They will both woo the Carolinas' royal couple, John and Elizabeth Edwards.

Edwards, "the third candidate," who persevered more than others in the face of Obama and Clinton's charging steam engines, has not said which of the two he would support. His wife hinted where she was leaning when she said that Clinton's health insurance plan was better. Elizabeth Edwards, a terminal cancer patient, has some influence on this matter. But she is not expected to state her preference explicitly.

Edwards is one of two Democrats (Al Gore is the second) who could, in time and if required, become the tiebreakers or intermediaries in a split Democratic Party. He is not expected to do anything now that would jeopardize his potential status.
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