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Last update - 18:49 28/04/2008 Clinton wins Pennsylvania Jewish vote with surprising ease By Shmuel Rosner Tags: rosner, Clinton, Obama  More than 60% of Jews in Pennsylvania Primary voted for Hillary, less than 40% voted for Obama. And this is not the only reason for which Clinton can say she handily won the Jewish vote. 1. First, the numbers: As you can see here, the Jews of Pennsylvania voted in great numbers (8% of the vote, much more than their share in the PA population), and 62% voted for Clinton, while Obama got 38% of their votes. Advertisement Most media outlets missed this great "Jewish victory" for Clinton, as they were relying on earlier numbers, claiming that the margin was 10% - 55% for Clinton and 45% for Obama. While this is a significant margin, it is not very impressive as it is similar to the general margin in this state (45% for Obama, 55% for Clinton). However, and as was the case a couple of weeks ago in California, earlier results did not reflect the final numbers. Here is what I wrote at the time: Exit polls are a problematic source when it comes to the Jewish vote. The sample is always small, even in states like New York where 16% of the vote was Jewish. The margin of error is significant, and there is plenty of opportunity for correction as the actual results are analyzed and the polls are weighed to the official count of votes. That's why it is even more important to recheck these exit polls. I checked. In California we thought that Clinton won, but she actually lost. In Pennsylvania we thought she won by a smaller margin, but the truth is that she won decisively. 2. But this is not the end of the story, as Clinton's victory is even more significant. Look at Montgomery County, where many suburban Jews live and where the Jewish vote was the most significant. In this affluent community, Obama did pretty well, losing by only 2 points to Clinton. This means that Jews did not just vote for Clinton more than the average Pennsylvanian did; they voted for her in even greater relative margin of difference when one considers the community from which they come. On the other hand: Jewish voters, overwhelmingly white, voted for Clinton slightly less than other whites (whites: Clinton 63%, Obama 37%). 3. A lot of talk was dedicated to the question of whether Obama has a 'Jewish problem.' As I reported in the past, Obama won the Jewish vote in Massachusetts, Connecticut and California. Then came the Gallup poll, claiming that Obama and Clinton are supported by an almost-equal number of Jewish voters. Reading it I reminded my readers that my assumption was always, and still is, that Obama does have many Jewish followers. But I also added "One last word of caution:" We do not know yet the extent to which the Wright affair will influence the Jewish vote (though the Gallup poll can give some indication that it did not hurt Obama so far). I believe that John McCain has a better chance of gaining more Jewish voters than his two Republican predecessors (Bush & Bush) did, and that future surprises might change the tendencies of some of the Jewish voters. Can Pennsylvania be considered a sign that this caution was necessary? 4. Last time we had the numbers of the Jewish vote in Maryland. Interestingly enough, Clinton won this state - in terms of the Jewish vote - with numbers very similar to the result in Pennsylvania. When I reported these numbers I offered this explanation: In Super Tuesday, we saw three types of Jewish-voter states: those who voted overwhelmingly for Clinton, like in New York; those who went with Obama, like Connecticut; and others that are more competitive, like Massachusetts (Obama), California (Obama), or Arizona (Clinton). Our explanation was this: "Clinton won the Jewish vote handily in her backyard (New York and New Jersey), but did not have such luck in other places. She won some, and lost some, but the margin in all places but those two backyard states was not significant". Can Pennsylvania (especially Philadelphia), caught between NJ (backyard), and Maryland (not backyard) be considered a backyard state? If the answer is yes, the Wright affair might have nothing to do with Clinton's victory. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Hamas on the Holocaust Al-Aqsa TV claims Jews concocted the Holocaust. Grasping genocide How a non-Jew in Israel came to understand the Holocaust.   1.   Of course, she is ready to bomb Iran and wipe it out 00:19  |  El-Birawi 24/04/08   2.   voting machines 00:22  |  Samantha Smith 24/04/08   3.   Gov. Rendell loves Farrakhan 01:36  |  Paradise Gray 24/04/08   4.   And How did the Irish Protestant Vote Break Down 01:42  |  Mark of Lewiston 24/04/08   5.   Not so surprising 02:53  |  Morris Valentine 24/04/08   6.   It`s the Sandanista vote 02:58  |  Colin Wright 24/04/08   7.   Mark of Lewiston 03:27  |  Mark Lincoln 24/04/08   8.   The math of the next election 03:31  |  Mark Lincoln 24/04/08   9.   Catholic vote 03:42  |  HS 24/04/08   10.   #1: El-Birawi & #5: Morris Valentine and the simpleton response 04:07  |  Doc Holliday 24/04/08   11.   Clinton is still numerically behind 05:45  |  Will 24/04/08   12.   Senior Citizens 05:53  |  Menachen 24/04/08   13.   To Doc (#10): Heal thyself 07:11  |  Morris Valentine 24/04/08   14.   Jewish vote 07:47  |  George Prozan 24/04/08   15.   Seal of approval transfers to PA 08:51  |  Natallie Durson 24/04/08   16.   Clinton = economic prosperity 08:51  |  Haldrik 24/04/08   17.   Gay vote 09:10  |  Gay and proud 24/04/08   18.   Jew-by-Choice Vote 09:12  |  Akiva 24/04/08   19.   How long will Jews in the U.S. vote liberal? 10:22  |  Shmuel 24/04/08   20.   That Must Mean That Hillary is a Traitor 10:38  |  Ameircan Voter 24/04/08   21.   #20 11:24  |  Shmuel 24/04/08   22.   Obama`s Jewish Problem 12:52  |  Merle 24/04/08   23.   #20, what about Obama? 13:02  |  Gideon 24/04/08   24.   nOne of the Jews I know like Obama...they like McCain or Clinton) 19:17  |  a 24/04/08   25.   Mr. Rosner, does that surprise you (headline) 19:36  |  Someone 24/04/08   26.   #22 Racism versus Anti-Semitism? Which one trumps the other? 20:20  |  Will 24/04/08   27.   Say NO to liberals for Pres. 21:59  |  Friend 24/04/08   28.   Real Jews vote for McCain 00:56  |  Avram 25/04/08   29.   dual loyalty 03:19  |  d 25/04/08   30.   #1 El Birwani 03:52  |  Sel 25/04/08   31.   #13: Morris Valentine, I believe you to be thoughtful in your pos 05:14  |  Doc Holliday 25/04/08   32.   jewish vote in PA 17:20  |  Jerome Sacks 25/04/08   33.   RESPOND TO D #29 01:39  |  TOBIA 26/04/08   34.   HOW CAN THEY TELL 02:20  |  TOBIA 26/04/08   35.   To Doc Holiday (#31): A gentleman 05:32  |  Morris Valentine 27/04/08   36.   Making the news, not reporting it. 06:19  |  amazed american 27/04/08   37.   Is religion on the ballot in PA 01:23  |  Jackie 28/04/08   38.   hillarystillmygirl 00:51  |  c. schmidt 02/05/08

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