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Last update - 06:16 23/04/2008 Repressing the Iranian threat By Yuval Steinitz Tags: nuclear program  The United States National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, which concludes that Tehran had decided to rescind its decision to develop a nuclear weapon, is parallel to the fable in which Little Red Riding Hood ignores the wolf hiding in grandma's bed, even though she saw his eyes and ears sticking out from the covers. The renewal of the debate over the assessments validity, as a result of new data provided by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has given rise to hope that the damage can be contained. This article seeks to analyze the logical and psychological failings at the base of what appears to be one of the most unfounded intelligence estimates in history. The pendulum effect: The main difference between the new intelligence estimate and the one preceding it is not in the details, but in the careful logic it has applied in reaching its conclusions. The new estimate does not challenge the fact that in the case of Iran, most of the wolf is clearly evident: the factories for uranium conversion and enrichment in Isfahan and Kashan; the heavy water reactor in Arak; and the Shihab, Ashura and the BM-25 missiles. Advertisement However, it hesitates to shift the pieces of the puzzle into a whole: nothing can determine with certainty that the pieces of the wolf that are evident represent a complete wolf. Can we determine with certainty that at the end of this project hides a bomb? The principle which seems to have guided the authors of the new report is "once bitten, twice shy." Following the intelligence fiasco over the chemical weapons in Iraq - a failure shared by all Western intelligence services, including Israel's - it was decided to adopt a very high degree of caution. If in the case of Iraq the intelligence services cried "wolf," on the basis of a fragment of information that proved false, this time the wolf will have to sink his teeth in for it to be recognized as such. In other words, the intelligence experts set standards of mathematical certainty that are not suited for fields where forecasting is necessary - and intelligence is a distant relative of these. What makes the conclusions of the report even more strange is that like the story of Little Red Riding Hood, the encounter with parts of the beast are not the first encounter. Little Red Riding Hood saw the wolf in the forest, nonetheless she deluded herself that under the covers lay her grandmother. In his book "The Uses of Enchantment," psychologist Bruno Bettelheim explains that Red Riding Hood preferred to repress the threat and played along with the wolf's impersonations because she did not know how to deal with the impending threat. American intelligence also saw the Iranian Wolf prior to 2003. The current report even reiterates the unequivocal conclusion, that up to that point the Iranian nuclear project was geared toward the development of a bomb. What seems to have happened, according to the report, is that Iranian efforts to develop the bomb mechanics recently dropped off the radar screens of U.S. intelligence (as opposed to the focus on the fissile material which lies at the center of the nuclear project). And since not all the parts of the project are visible any longer, the ability to determine the presence of the wolf, according to the new standards set, also dissipated. The way American intelligence has conducted itself on this matter constitutes a thrilling example for what is described as the "pendulum effect" - which is causing the intelligence assessments to shift between an "overestimate" pole and an "underestimate" pole. Overestimation, as occured in Iraq, draws criticism and underestimation is carried onto the next case, and the other way around. Absurd implications: Psychological trauma and inappropriate logic may lead to absurd conclusions. The absurdity of the new report stems especially from the importance attributed to the investment in resources of Iranian decision makers. The report states, essentially, that in 2003 the Iranians made two contradictory decisions: to give up on the bomb, and to carry on investing billions in factories meant to produce such a weapon! Should the authors of the report not be required to provide, for example, some sort of explanation as to the enormous investments in the largest subterranean centrifuge factory in the world, at Kashan? Or did the report's authors learn that the Iranians developed a method of improving pistachio nuts in centrifuges? Similar questions need to be asked about the missiles. Experts agree that ballistic missiles with a range exceeding 1,000 kilometers are developed only to carry non-conventional warheads. This is so because their development and production is enormously costly. The missiles developed by Iran since 2003 have a range of several thousand kilometers, and cover the entire Middle East and most of Europe. Recently they announced the development of a "satellite-carrying vehicle," which means an inter-continental missile aimed for the Americas. If the plan to arm these with nuclear warheads was canceled, why are these tremendous investments in missiles continuing? The earlier intelligence error - the overestimation on the presence of chemical weapons in Iraq - resulted in a bloody war in Iraq. The current intelligence error, the underestimation of Iran's nuclear program, undermines the effort to save the world from a situation in which a fundamentalist regime holds nuclear arms. Intelligence errors are unavoidable. What is troubling regarding the new National Intelligence Estimate is that it is not a matter of pure error, but an unreasonable repression of the threat - precisely like the case of Little Red Riding Hood. The writer is a member of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, and co-chairs, along with Senator Jon Kyl (R-Arizona), the U.S.-Israel Joint Parliamentary Committee on National Security. Bookmark to del.icio.us   'Shampoo' meets 'Munich' New Adam Sandler film stars Mossad hit man turned hairdresser. Rehab (live) Report: Singer Amy Winehouse is to undergo drug rehab in Israel.   1.   This is not a credible mistake for the CIA 10:19  |  MR 23/04/08   2.   Conspiracy theory - page link error 10:44  |  Shlomo 23/04/08   3.   Steinitz has a Zionist hissy fit 10:48  |  Clickfool 23/04/08   4.   MR - it wasn`t CIA alone 10:49  |  Shlomo 23/04/08   5.   Preemption 11:00  |  Shalom Freedman 23/04/08   6.   Israel`s areal threat! 11:09  |  Roxana from IRAN 23/04/08   7.   The crucial issue here 11:13  |  examiner 23/04/08   8.   And I believe the opposite 11:13  |  Edith 23/04/08   9.   Backlash from the Iraq WMD report 11:58  |  Lobo08 23/04/08   10.   Repressing the Iranian threat 12:00  |  AJROLAF 23/04/08   11.   The world must not succumb to Israels self interest 12:07  |  Natallie Durson 23/04/08   12.   IRANIANS WON`T STEAL LIKE ISRAELIS 12:26  |  indrajaya 23/04/08   13.   It just like suppressing Sexual urge without... 12:29  |  Magnify 23/04/08   14.   Iran is no threat unless it itself is threatened 12:52  |  Johan Odin 23/04/08   15.   Where the analogies break down.... 13:06  |  Johnboy 23/04/08   16.   For Magnify # 13 13:06  |  Clickfool 23/04/08   17.   Congrats, MK Yuval Steinitz, excellent article ! 13:35  |  Fortuna Benmayor 23/04/08   18.   Can`t believe 4000 American soldiers 13:52  |  Chris Linthwaite 23/04/08   19.   To Johan Odin: Iran is no threat 14:13  |  David 23/04/08   20.   Amateur psychology isn`t analysis 14:17  |  Rowan 23/04/08   21.   To Clickfool 14:29  |  David 23/04/08   22.   To Rowan 14:36  |  David 23/04/08   23.   #21 David of Tel Aviv 14:50  |  Chris Linthwaite 23/04/08   24.   Magnify #13....why don`t you 15:05  |  Raad 23/04/08   25.   For David # 21 15:19  |  Clickfool 23/04/08   26.   # 5 freedman 15:21  |  Axel 23/04/08   27.   To Chris 15:30  |  David 23/04/08   28.   Chris Linthwaite 15:33  |  Joe W 23/04/08   29.   Paranoia 15:33  |  Bob 23/04/08   30.   David #19 If Iran is a threat 15:33  |  examiner 23/04/08   31.   Joe W from London 15:46  |  examiner 23/04/08   32.   axel the genius 15:48  |  erwin honigstein 23/04/08   33.   Waht nonsense 15:48  |  Marilyn 23/04/08   34.   David of Tel Aviv 15:51  |  Chris Linthwaite 23/04/08   35.   To examiner 15:58  |  David 23/04/08   36.   Iran / II 16:03  |  Bob 23/04/08   37.   US to Israel.....US to Iran 16:20  |  David 23/04/08   38.   David 16:34  |  examiner 23/04/08   39.   examiner 16:50  |  Joe W 23/04/08   40.   Sorry, Lintwit, America Is In Iraq Because of Oil 17:01  |  Tex 23/04/08   41.   chicken little 17:04  |  Space 23/04/08   42.   Gibberish 17:12  |  Faraz 23/04/08   43.   #40 Tex 17:33  |  Chris Linthwaite 23/04/08   44.   Fight your own wars 17:38  |  George W 23/04/08   45.   MY CHILDREN,DON`T FEAR PERSIAN KING,YOUR REDEMPTION HAS ARRIVED!! 17:48  |  VOICE of MOSHIACH))) 23/04/08   46.   Clickfool 17:53  |  Sarah 23/04/08   47.   #44 George 18:04  |  Sarah 23/04/08   48.   Even spying in easy-going US Zionist spies get caught ... 18:10  |  Chanalau, Tova 23/04/08   49.   Israel wants America to attack Iran... 18:30  |  Silvienne 23/04/08   50.   re 11 Natty D says give them the power 18:36  |  Alan the real one 23/04/08   51.   5 Shalom Freedman - Paramount Concerns 18:46  |  Mark of Lewiston 23/04/08   52.   47 Sarah - What Happens the Day After? 19:01  |  Mark of Lewiston 23/04/08   53.   It`s obviously very important that Iran be a threat 19:20  |  Colin Wright 23/04/08   54.   on the difference between proven and unproven 19:24  |  Axel 23/04/08   55.   # 50 alan 19:37  |  Axel 23/04/08   56.   re 16 another moist drem for clicky 19:55  |  Alan the real one 23/04/08   57.   INSTEAD OF IRAN.... 20:13  |  Kevin 23/04/08   58.   #52 Mark 20:19  |  Sarah 23/04/08   59.   Why would I NOT like Shylock, Sarah? # 46 20:23  |  Clickfool 23/04/08   60.   axel "the subjective opinion of an interested party" 20:55  |  erwin honigstein 23/04/08   61.   axel "the answer of an israeli politician is the last one 20:59  |  erwin honigstein 23/04/08   62.   #40, Tex, why is gas $4.50 a gallon at the pump... 21:09  |  Silvienne 23/04/08   63.   the great man replies to axel`s ham-fisted effort 21:29  |  erwin honigstein 23/04/08   64.   #18 Chris can`t believe 4000 soldiers have died 21:41  |  Kipperraes 23/04/08   65.   So they all hate you what are gonna do about it 23:09  |  no whiner 23/04/08   66.   #11 Durson is right on it as usual 23:42  |  Montrealer 23/04/08   67.   clickfool shylock also said 23:43  |  brighton rock 23/04/08   68.   #62 silvienn explains why she should refrain from posting 23:55  |  v hardman 23/04/08   69.   glass houses 00:23  |  joey 24/04/08   70.   58 Sarah - They are Surrounded 01:27  |  Mark of Lewiston 24/04/08   71.