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Report to Senate: S. Arabia could get nukes By Shmuel Rosner, Haaretz Correspondent, and AP WASHINGTON - A report submitted to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee indicates that if Iran acquires nuclear weapons, this would set off a chain reaction in the Middle East, pushing other states in the region to consider launching their own nuclear arms programs. A U.S. intelligence estimate late last year said Iran worked on nuclear weapons programs until 2003 before abandoning them. However, the intelligence analysts also reported Iran was continuing to enrich uranium, a key weapons component, and possessed the capacity to produce nuclear weapons if it decided to do so. Advertisement Sen. Richard G. Lugar, R-Ind., the senior Republican on the committee, had directed staff member Bradley Bowman to conduct the study presented, which examines in detail the expected responses of Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia to a nuclear-capable Iran. It also addresses possible Israeli responses to Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons and concludes that Israel would have two options: to go public announce that it has nuclear weapons of its own and to threaten a harsh response to any use of nuclear arms against it; or to threaten a response without officially acknowledging its possession of nuclear weapons. Hundreds of sources The report was based on hundreds of conversations conducted by its authors with government officials in the United States and the Middle East as well as a large number of experts. The most salient conclusion in the report is in a chapter dealing with the likely Saudi response to a nuclearized Iran, which, the report says, would "place tremendous pressure on Saudi Arabia to follow suit." According to the report, "the only factor that would likely dissuade the Saudis from pursuing a nuclear weapon would be a restored United States-Saudi bilateral relationship and a repaired Saudi perception regarding the reliability of the U.S. security guarantee." The assessment regarding Egypt's response is more cautious: It anticipates "a heated debate in Cairo" on the issue and concludes that Egypt "would most likely choose not to respond by pursuing its own nuclear weapons." 'Decisive' response However, according to the report, Israel's response to the new regional situation "could prove decisive" on that of Egypt, as well as that of the Saudis. Egypt, the report explains, will not want to be in a situation in which its regional influence is eroded dramatically in the face of acquisition of nuclear arms on the part of neighboring states, without its following suit. The Turkish stance Turkey's response to a nuclear-armed Iran, according to the report, depends on several factors including Turkish-U.S. relations - slightly strained at the moment - and Turkish perceptions regarding its standing in NATO. The fact that Turkey has been disappointed by the Europeans a number of times in recent years, together with its problematic relations with NATO and with the U.S., could push Turkey into pursuing nuclear weapons of its own, the report states. In the next two or three years, the United States must take steps to restore Arab and Turkish confidence in U.S. security guarantees, the report concludes. Otherwise, says the report, "the future Middle East landscape may include a number of nuclear-armed or nuclear weapons-capable states vying for influence in a notoriously unstable region." Bookmark to del.icio.us   Lost giant Endangered sea turtle washes up on Gaza's shore and is eaten. Not worried Nearly half of Israeli Arabs say let Iran develop nukes.

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