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Last update - 01:42 04/04/2008 ANALYSIS: Zigzag response to Syria tensions doesn't signal war By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents Tags: IDF, Israel, Syria, Hezbollah A day after tensions sharpened with Syria with media play on the subject, Israel did an about-face and began broadcasting soothing messages. The rapid zigzag was reminiscent of the contradictory statements of last spring and summer - before the Air Force's attack on northern Syria on September 6. This week's contradictory statements give the impression that the tension still exists, especially regarding Hezbollah's intention to avenge Imad Mughniyah's assassination. The fear of war appears, for the moment, somewhat exaggerated. Advertisement Defense Ministry official Amos Gilad said in radio interviews yesterday that Israel and Syria have no interest in attacking each other, and that the Arab media's reports of mobilizing Syrian reserves were mistaken. Minister Haim Ramon made similar statements. Military sources said they saw no "clear signs of war" on the Syrian front. But they confirmed that both sides are on relatively high alert for fear of the other side's moves, mainly due to Hezbollah's calls for revenge. At the same time Israel conveyed soothing messages to Damascus that it has no intention of attacking. What, then, is causing the tension? First, the expectations Hezbollah unleashed by promising retaliation. It is clear that Israel will react harshly to any large attack, and that this could lead to a regional escalation. Also, any unusual Syrian defense deployment could indicate that Damascus is partner to Hezbollah's plans and therefore expects escalation. Defense Minister Ehud Barak's visit to the northern border at the beginning of the week is also significant. It was not by chance that Barak uttered a veiled threat to strike anyone who tried to attack Israel. He had prepared his statement in advance. Cynics say that Barak had political motives as well. The Labor party is in deep crisis. Not making belligerent statements as fears of war loom in the background establishes the party chairman's as a "responsible adult," whose only concern is security. Barak would hardly have made up a new Syrian threat merely to ward off MK Amir Peretz's annoying attacks. While Israel examines Syria's intentions with suspicion, Damascus is doing likewise. As far as Damascus is concerned, it has good reason to fear Israeli aggression. Even the mistaken report about a large Syrian mobilization of reserves was only generated in response to Barak's statement in the north. A Syrian intelligence officer, putting together Barak's statement, his canceling a trip to Germany, the cabinet's decision to redistribute gas masks and the national emergency maneuver next week, would probably conclude that Israel was interested in escalation. Despite this, Syria also made an effort yesterday to calm things down. A member of parliament, Mohammed Habash, told Al Arabiya television that the Syrian army was not on alert, and that his country had no intention of attacking Israel. To sum up, the north is expected to remain tense at least until Hezbollah's revenge attack and perhaps afterward, too. Meanwhile the calm in the south seems to be coming to an end after a month. The Qassam rocket and mortar fire is increasing, although Hamas is not taking part in the shooting. In Israel, the restraint imposed on the Israel Defense Forces in the past few weeks is loosening. Seven Palestinian militants were wounded by IDF troops yesterday east of Khan Yunis. The IDF engaged in similar acts almost every night this week. Gaza is once again becoming a barrel of explosives, especially since the talks on reopening the Rafah crossing have stalemated again. The economic situation in the Strip is deteriorating. Dozens of drivers are waiting near every gas station, sometimes for more than two days, just to buy a little fuel. Wishing to avert the population's fury, Hamas may direct its fire against Israel again. Related articles: Intel sources: Syria hasn't called up reserve forces Report: Syria confirms listening in on IDF with Iran's help Israel fears Syrian army moves may signal Hezbollah attack Bookmark to del.icio.us   Bread will abound J'lem court allows pizzerias, bakeries to sell leavened products during Passover. The looking glass A T.A. film festival tackles Israel's hardest issues from war to polygamy.   1.   Analysis: Someone in Israel wants a war 15:54  |  Mark Lincoln 04/04/08

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