Clinton and Obama voters support Israel in similar numbers

A newly released poll from The Israel Project contains some interesting data about the 2008 candidates, their constituencies and Israel. A cautionary note: The Israel Project is an organization with a clear agenda. A calming note: The poll was conducted by Neil Newhouse of Public Opinion Strategies and Stan Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, two trustworthy and professional pollsters.

Here are some findings, and some remarks:

1.

As much as I understand the need for The Israel Project to highlight these findings, I do not see the major political benefit of having 70 percent of Americans support the expansion of United Nations sanctions against Iran. The U.S. was never the problem in that regard, and the support of Americans for measures against this country is neither at all surprising nor useful (a couple of weeks ago I reported here that Iran is still the most unfavorable country in the world in the eyes of Americans).

Americans themselves are smart enough to understand this. Asked "how much of a chance do you think there is that diplomacy and sanctions by the United States government can stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons?", only 20 percent thought the chances were good.

The others thought there is some (34 percent), little (22 percent), or hardly any (22 percent) chance. When the question was asked about sanctions by the UN and Europe, the numbers were even gloomier. 16 percent believed there was a good chance, while 28 percent believed there was hardly any chance.

And as expected, Democrats tend to be the more hopeful that sanctions can work. 65 percent of Democrats believe sanctions have a chance of success, but only 47 percent of GOP voters think the same.

2.

The fact that Americans support Israel more than they support the Palestinians is also not exactly new. The fact that McCain voters (Republicans) support Israel more strongly than Democrats (Clinton and Obama voters) is also unsurprising.

But what is somewhat surprising is that there is no real difference between the voters of (the supposedly liberal) Obama and those of (the supposedly more hawkish) Clinton on the question of support for Israel. But to be accurate: Obama's numbers are slightly lower - 2 percent below Clinton's on support for Israel, with 46 percent, and 2 percent ahead on support for the Palestinians, at 14 percent.

However, this is only the case when asked about support for Israel vs. support for the Palestinians. When asked about support for Israel without mentioning another party, it is actually Obama voters that are slightly ahead, with 62 percent compared to 58 percent of Clinton voters.

Americans generally see Israel as an ally, a democracy and a country aspiring to peace. I was unimpressed by the fact that most of them believe in Israel's right to build the West Bank fence (47 percent felt it was strongly justified, 15 percent said it was justified but not strongly). The way this question was phrased (it is about a "security fence" rather than a "separation wall") is the reason for such an outcome.

3.

One interesting nugget from the many questions pointing to public support for Palestinian statehood: 53 percent of Americans do not think that the establishment of such a state will lead to "a reduction in the threat of terrorist attacks on U.S. soil by Islamic extremists." They reject the linkage between terrorism and the Israeli occupation, and refuse to buy the argument that this issue is the one driving the actions of Islamic fundamentalists.

4.

As we have seen in the past, most American Jews reject compromises on Jerusalem. Apparently, this poll is trying to make the same argument about Americans in general (63 percent), but the wording of the question is, again, somewhat problematic:

On the one hand, "Do you believe that Jerusalem should stay entirely under Israel's control since Israel keeps all the Christian, Muslim and Jewish holy sites open and safe for all faiths?", and on the other: "Do you believe that Jerusalem should be divided between Israel and the Palestinians in order to make progress towards a two-state solution?"

Not a fair comparison.

One should note, though, that a more neutral question was asked of only a sample of the polled group, and the majority was still in favor of an Israeli Jerusalem, albeit in smaller numbers (55 percent). But this majority is of a certain political bent: 72 percent of Republicans say Jerusalem should remain under Israel's jurisdiction, but only 47 percent of Democrats agree.

5.

Most Americans want peace negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians to continue, but for Republicans this majority is quite slim (54 percent), while for Democrats it is an overwhelming majority (72 percent). 58 percent of Republicans also think that working for a two-state solution when the Palestinians are divided between Fatah in the West Bank and Hamas in Gaza is a waste of time. In this case, even among Democrats, more agree with the statement (44 percent) than disagree (43 percent).