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Between rockets and hard places By Avi Issacharoff Tags: PA, Israel, West Bank RAMALLAH - On Wednesday night, a few hours after the assassination of four armed Palestinians in Bethlehem and a fifth in Tul Karm, the bureau of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) released a statement condemning Israel - the harshest since the renewal of negotiations between the sides. "This barbaric crime reveals the fake mask Israel has been hiding behind, talking about peace but committing crimes and killing sons of our people every day," said the statement. The scathing text reflected the great frustration of people at the Muqata in light of the scornful attitude Israel has shown toward them: whether in the political negotiations with the team headed by Ahmed Qureia (Abu Ala) or vis-a-vis the Palestinian president's people, who are conducting the security talks and are being treated in an especially humiliating way. A few hours before the assassinations, one of the senior people in the PA explained to Haaretz that for the first time since his election, Abu Mazen is clearly pessimistic as to the chances of success in the negotiations. "He has not despaired, but look at what the government of Israel has done until now: No roadblocks have been lifted, every few days the army enters one of the West Bank towns and kills someone, you have succeeded in damaging the capability of our security mechanisms that are trying to act to restore quiet to the West Bank, and worst of all - construction in the Jewish settlements is continuing." The feeling at government headquarters was that Israel is trying in every possible way to damage the PA's ability to function in the West Bank, and that in many respects it is easier for the State of Israel to claim that "there is no partner on the other side." Advertisement One person at the Muqata told Haaretz that the PA has prevented dozens of terror attacks in the months since the Hamas takeover in the Gaza Strip. From a detailed report that was sent to the U.S. government by the Palestinian security organizations, it emerges that the PA has prevented more than 10 suicide attacks during this period, including arrests of potential planners and executors of suicide bombings, and the confiscation of explosive belts. The relevant information has also been conveyed to the Israeli side, including the names of the suspects, but Israeli security sources who have been asked to comment on this information dismiss it scornfully. One senior Palestinian official explains that in the PA they have "changed the disc" - they are no longer closing their eyes to the activities of Hamas and Islamic Jihad in the West Bank, but are pursuing intensive, ongoing actions against what in Israel used to be called "Hamas infrastructures." According to this official, the PA security organizations have succeeded in dismantling this infrastructure in a number of areas, such as Jenin, Salfit, Tubas and elsewhere. "The problem is that you [Israelis] are refusing to see the change. You are still telling us stories about 'the revolving door' [i.e., the arrest and immediate release of militants by the PA]. Go ahead and try us. If you have information about an intention to carry out a terror attack, let us deal with the suspect. And if it's true that there is a complaint about our functioning, sit with us and explain what we did wrong. But at the moment, what is happening is a continuing process that is aimed at humiliating the PA and its head," says the official. A lull? Not so fast In addition to all the reasons the senior official set forth, it appears that at the Muqata they are disturbed by two possible emerging scenarios, in the Gaza Strip in fact - and this even before this week's assassinations of Islamic Jihad militants in Bethlehem. The first: The truce between Israel and Hamas takes on flesh and sinew. The two sides, with the help of Egyptian mediation, arrive at a formula in which the PA begins to participate in the administration of the border crossings between Israel and the Gaza Strip, and between Gaza and Egypt. The siege on the Gaza Strip is lifted and the local economy comes to life. After that, Cairo completes negotiations for the release of captive Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. Several hundred prisoners, among them some "with blood on their hands," but more importantly, all of the jailed Hamas members of parliament, are released from Israeli prisons. Hamas again becomes the majority in the Palestinian parliament, and doubt is cast on the legality of Prime Minister Salam Fayyad's government. In the wake of the lifting of the siege and the release of the prisoners, the popularity of Hamas soars in the Strip and the West Bank. The status of Abu Mazen and Fatah begins to decline. The second scenario: In the wake of the deterioration of the situation in the West Bank, the firing of Qassam rockets into Israel from the Gaza Strip starts up again. The Israel Defense Forces retaliate with an attack on Islamic Jihad activists, who for their part step up the firing. The army responds again and this time kills Palestinian civilians unintentionally. Hamas finds it difficult to ignore this and reacts with Katyusha fire on Ashkelon. An IDF ground operation in Sajiyeh and Zeitun ends with dozens of Palestinians killed. Hamas again takes over the news reports on Arab television channels and promises revenge attacks. The popularity of Hamas soars in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, and the status of Abu Mazen and Fatah decline even further. Even though the scenario of a tahadiyeh (lull) is liable to worsen the political standing of Fatah and Abu Mazen, at the Muqata they are saying that a temporary cease-fire is preferable to the continuation of the fighting between Israel and Hamas. The logic behind this might sound strange to the Western ear. The assessment of senior PA people in Ramallah is that if Hamas enters into a cease-fire, its popularity will suffer severe damage: It will no longer be a fighting "resistance" organization, but rather a political movement that arrives at agreements with "the Zionist entity" in order to ensure the well-being of its leaders. "Their whole ideology is based on their claim that they are the legitimate resistance, in the firing of the rockets and the terror attacks, whereas Abu Mazen and Fatah are collaborators," explains a senior official. "And what happens when the rockets cease, as well as the terror attacks? Then where will their resistance be?" But sometimes it seems that it is convenient for the PA in Ramallah to support a tahadiyeh, mainly in light of the slim chance that Hamas and Israel will agree to the various provisions in an Egyptian agreement for the cease-fire. The feeling in Ramallah is that the gaps are still too large despite the several days of quiet that prevailed in the south at the beginning of the week, in contrast to the situation in the West Bank. As senior PA people see it, the issue on which the lull depends is, in fact, the border crossings and boundaries between the Gaza Strip and Egypt (the Philadelphi Route). Egypt, Israel and the United States are adamantly demanding that Hamas people will not man the Rafah border crossing, and in their stead European observers and members of Abu Mazen's Presidential Guard will be stationed there to enable its reopening. Hamas has agreed to this and is planning to position its own people nearby, at roadblocks that will control the traffic of Palestinians to and from the crossing point. In addition the organization is demanding that European observers be lodged neither in Egypt nor in Israel. Apparently, this is an issue that can be resolved. However, the problem remains with the PA. If Abu Mazen's Presidential Guard is to man the Rafah crossing and the area of the Philadelphi Route properly, the PA estimates that at least about 1,000 soldiers will be needed. "And then what? Where will they stay? Will Hamas try to supervise them and limit their activity? After all, we will not agree to their sleeping at a hotel in [Egyptian] El Arish, and if they live in Gaza we will have to ensure that the scenes of last June [the Hamas takeover] do not recur. We will not be prepared to be there at the mercy of Hamas; we first have to return the situation to what it was." And indeed it appears that for the operation of the border crossings, an arrangement will be needed that will be no less than miraculous: More than 1,000 soldiers, from the Presidential Guard, who were persecuted to death by Hamas activists during the course of the "putsch" in the Gaza Strip last year, will be living in Gaza under the control of the Islamic movement. The second reason for the doubts in the PA about the chances of a lull in the fighting is Tehran. The PA has no doubt that the Gaza Strip and Hamas are becoming the operational arms in every respect of Iran, and to a lesser extent of Syria as well. According to senior PA sources, the orders given to Hamas come straight from the residence of the Iranian ambassador in Damascus, are transmitted to the heads of Hamas and the Islamic Jihad in the Syrian capital, and from there are sent on to the territories. The new-old condition that Hamas stipulated this week for a tahadiyeh was first published in a statement released by one of the heads of the organization in Damascus, Muhammad Nasr: the cessation also of all Israeli military actions in the West Bank, a condition to which Israel will not agree. In this way Damascus and Tehran are thwarting the Egyptian initiative for a cease-fire, without being too obvious about it. The blame will fall on Israel, which will be depicted as uncooperative. In Ramallah they are saying that right now, just a few days before the Arab summit in Damascus, it is not convenient for Syria to be depicted as foiling an important Egyptian move. "[Syrian President] Bashar [Assad] is afraid Egypt and other countries will not guarantee their participation in the summit, if he comes out openly against them. Therefore, he is being careful not to leave explicit fingerprints on the thwarting of the Egyptian move toward a truce. He wants all of the Arab states at his side in order to stabilize his status in the Arab world and in the international community. Meager participation by Arab countries at the summit means a severe blow to Syria's standing." A number of Palestinian commentators who followed Abu Mazen's statements this week formed the impression that, in contrast to the official line, Abu Mazen is not especially keen on the idea of a tahadiyeh. In a conversation on Monday with Jordanian journalists, he attacked Defense Minister Ehud Barak for thwarting the negotiations between the sides. However, he devoted most of his remarks to implied criticism of Hamas. He spoke about the agreement that is taking shape between the Islamic organization and Israel, and about the most basic demand of Hamas: that its leaders not be harmed. A well-known Palestinian journalist pointed out that "these things sound strange coming from a person who declares that he is interested in a tahadiyeh. This sounds almost like an attempt to ruin the agreement that is taking shape and to prevent a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas." Bookmark to del.icio.us   Good Avraham Hunting An ex-security guard solves a problem that has baffled mathematicians for decades. A better place Some 2,400 African refugees have entered Israel via Egypt since January.

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