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Last update - 09:25 12/03/2008 The third intifada is already here By Israel Harel Tags: David Cohen, Israel  No strategic national goal has ever been defined for any of those responsible for our security, from any branch. They fight for "Israel's security" as they understand it - so that most of the population will somehow keep functioning, day after day. They are also not accustomed to analyzing the sequence and scope of events from a historic perspective. Therefore, they propose measures, almost always reactive, whose goal is to "manage the conflict" - not to win it. Politicians and defense officials, especially lately, operate on the basis of assumptions that derive from their own imaginations. For instance, that Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas is a "partner," and that his Fatah organization is better than Hamas. For instance, that incidents of stone-throwing in the North are no more than "disturbances of the peace" by frustrated youths. For instance, that it is possible to "pacify" Hamas without a large-scale military operation in Gaza (Fact: Calm has arrived!). Both the army and the police, it seems, find it convenient to act on the basis of what they wish were true. Police Commissioner David Cohen dismisses those who foresee a third intifada. It's not wise to discuss this, he says; it will become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Shin Bet security service chief Yuval Diskin also sees a "low probability" of the intifada resuming. And indeed, just as they say, there is no reason to discuss another intifada, or self-fulfilling prophecies - for what we refer to as the "first intifada" never ended. For the past 21 years, with ups and downs - like those of the past few days - there has been an ongoing chain of terror attacks. Dividing them into different intifadas is meant to prove that the previous intifada, which began to wane after Operation Defensive Shield, had ended. That is self-deception. Advertisement Thousands of Qassam rockets have landed in the South since the "end" of the second intifada. And even in Judea and Samaria, the attacks have not ended because we won and the enemy laid down his arms. Far from it. And that is so even if a daily war is being waged - successfully, for a change - against the incessant attempts to perpetrate terror attacks in the population centers of the coastal plain. Only when the terrorists no longer have the strength to keep going - and that is something that is in our hands - will it be possible to say "We won." But that day, as is evident from the eight years of rockets on the South, last week's attack in Jerusalem and the stones - stones also kill - thrown in Judea and Samaria, the Galilee, the inland valleys and the coastal plain, is still far off. It is not far off because, in the past, we were unable to prevent the deaths of hundreds of Israelis and thousands of Arabs and the suffering of millions. It is far off because those responsible for the war on terror, like Cohen and Diskin, use magical thinking: The flames are low, even tolerable, today? So let us also sit quietly and let the children of Sderot play on their slides and seesaws. If we would only "think positive," perhaps the rockets really would stop flying in the South and there would not be an upsurge in stone-throwing in the North. Who said that what was is what will be, and that history must repeat itself? What we have done, and are continuing to do - even now, when it would still be possible to put out relatively easily the fires, which are still fairly small, in the inland valleys and the North - is deny reality: Who says that stone-throwing portends more serious violence? "Israel is not the territories." And if Hamas has ceased to rain rockets, perhaps we should give it a chance. Those responsible for this restraint overlook the fact that thanks to all the successful self-restraint of the past, the front has already reached Ashkelon. And thanks to the Katyusha rockets that continue to pour into the Gaza Strip, it will be able, once Hamas has recovered its strength and returned to its natural habits, to reach Ashdod as well. The "third intifada" has been here all along. It is 21 years old, and it has spread, as any sensible person knows, into Israel as well. And if we had defeated it, as was possible, back in the "period of the stones" - that is, soon after it began, it 1987 - this might have prevented the rift, which by now may well be beyond healing, between us and Israel's Arab citizens. We should not have put them to the impossible test of an endless war between their country and their people. Now, it is late, but perhaps not yet too late. If the police would unhesitatingly take preventive action against the stone-throwers, the burners of tires and those who take over state lands out of nationalist motives, it might be possible to prevent the next stage: a general outbreak. And that might also prevent a final rupture between Arab and Jews in this country. But the police commissioner, and those above him, prefer to remain in denial. After all, as he said, it might become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Bookmark to del.icio.us   My son, the martyr Mother of J'lem attack victim backs 'political use' of son's murder. Keeping the faith Inter-faith couples married in a Jewish ceremony are likely to raise their kids Jewish.   1.   NO IT ISNT! 10:22  |  Sally 12/03/08   2.   "Leave the country and go to hell!" a Leftie leader said 12:27  |  Absolute Sweden 12/03/08   3.   to Sally 13:09  |  nina 12/03/08   4.   There is a solution,israel becomes a law abiding state and abides 13:23  |  lakshmi 12/03/08   5.   #4 Lakshmi and his "60 year" "Occupation" 13:53  |  Hastaroth 12/03/08   6.   so the solution is simple ! transfer all arabs to arab palestine 14:05  |  v hardman 12/03/08   7.   Maybe its finally time for an intifada against the arabs? 14:07  |  pace306 12/03/08   8.   A shameful warmonger, plain and simple 14:21  |  Johnboy 12/03/08   9.   Its the wrong message 17:26  |  Taxpayer 12/03/08   10.   All this kvetching with no solution 00:28  |  Skyler 13/03/08

Today Online Bradley Burston: Ten Commandments for Arab and Jew at war Responses: 141 Officials: IAF helicopter hit by Palestinian fire over Gaza Responses: 152 Police arrest rabbi for 'inciting Palestinians' in East Jerusalem Responses: 110 State Dept. notes rise in world anti-Semitism over last decade Responses: 136 Haaretz.com TV: Al Jazeera slams Israeli boycott as attack on freedom of expression Responses: 67 More Headlines 00:06 Sources: Israel warned Syria it could pay price for any Hezbollah attack 23:32 Rice: Neither Israel nor PA have done nearly enough to implement road map 00:00 Officials: IAF helicopter hit by Palestinian fire over Gaza 23:33 Merkel, Blair planning Middle East summit in Berlin for June 20:06 EU demands Israel halt all construction in W. Bank, E. J'lem 14:30 But did you know he's a Muslim? 16:05 If you marry them, you have a better chance of keeping them 22:12 Two Israelis wounded in clashes with IDF at anti-fence protest 13:54 Berlin official: Merkel speech to Knesset signals normalizing ties 15:37 State Dept. notes rise in global anti-Semitism over last decade 00:07 Police suspect homicide as two men trample cop with car, killing him 17:10 Dutch brace for new anti-Islam film directed by far-right leader 16:32 Court extends remand of two men suspected of beating Arab workers Previous Editions Select Day 14 mar 13 mar 12 mar 11 mar 10 mar 09 mar 07 mar 06 mar 05 mar 04 mar 03 mar 02 mar

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