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Last update - 09:42 11/03/2008
Two states - not three
By Yoel Marcus
Tags: Annapolis, PA, Hamas, Israel

Despite the convoluted intelligence assessments presented to the Knesset on Sunday, most people, with the exception of Benjamin Netanyahu, understand that going into Gaza is a hundred times more complicated and dangerous than the Second Lebanon War.

Gaza is one of the most densely-populated places on earth. If the Hamas leaders devoted themselves to development instead of terror, Gaza could become the Hong Kong of the Middle East - a hub of economic opportunity and tourism. Instead, Hamas is using the congestion as its "defensive shield," knowing full well that Israel will shy away from Haim Ramon's proposal to "shoot back at the sources of fire." In a place where every dozen people have half a dozen kids hidden between them, there is no way children won't get hurt.

In a conversation with Ehud Barak, Condoleezza Rice and the Quartet foreign ministers denounced even a pinpoint incursion like Operation Warm Winter. The harshest condemnation came from the French foreign minister, who called Israel's actions "wild." MK Yuval Steinitz, former chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, says that what Israel is not doing today (i.e., not entering and occupying Gaza) is suicide. "We are allowing Iran to establish a foothold and a base for firing long-range rockets right in the heart of Israel," he says. "If we resign ourselves to this situation, we are endangering our very lives."
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In contrast to this prophecy a la Cassandra, a large majority of Israelis recognize that invading Gaza and staying there long enough for the operation to be effective could cost many lives, on the battlefield and the home front. Not to mention that while this major offensive is going on, a second front could open up in the North. With such a bleak forecast at hand, Defense Minister Barak is right in preaching patience and making do with sporadic strikes combined with measures to protect the home front.

The Bush administration, eager to renew the Annapolis talks, is aware that in the three months that have passed since the summit, Hamas has grown by leaps and bounds. It may sound hard to believe, but it's a fact: 3,000 Hamas and Islamic Jihad "soldiers" have managed to kill or drive out 15,000 Fatah senior officials and security people, leaving Hamas with a monopoly over Gaza.

Palestinian Authority president Mahmoud Abbas, whose status was nothing to write home about during the talks with Israel, has grown even weaker. So if the U.S. administration does find a way to restart the dialogue, Abbas and his buddies no longer reflect or represent the Palestinian reality of spring 2008.

The inevitable conclusion is that America must initiate and accept a change in the makeup of the Palestinian delegation, namely, the addition of a Hamas representative. This will allow the Israeli side to speak to those who are really running the Palestinian show today. Will Hamas want to? Will it say yes? That is the ultimate test of the Bush administration.

America clearly has the power and resources to make this happen. Without hundreds of millions of dollars in aid from the U.S. and the Quartet, the Palestinian leadership is basically up the creek. There are times (and who knows it better than we do?) when money talks, even in politics.

We don't need Hamas to recognize Israel's existence as a precondition for negotiations in the framework of a Palestinian delegation. The very fact that they join the talks makes them responsible for the outcome and a partner to their success. At least it shows some kind of conditional willingness to recognize us. As Henry Kissinger so memorably put it, you don't make peace with your friends, but with your enemies.

The presence of a Hamas delegate at the talks will not make life easy, but it will give hope to a million and a half Gazans who are eating the bread of adversity and drinking the water of affliction. Renewing talks with a delegation that represents the entire Palestinian people will also strengthen the moderate Arab countries. Topping the list are Egypt and Jordan, with which we have peace treaties and which are worried that the Iranization of Gaza and the West Bank could pose a danger to their own regimes.

Every day there are signs that Hamas is interested in a tahadiyeh, a tactical cease-fire. Maybe it's a trick. Maybe it's just a way of buying time so they can arm themselves with Fajr missiles that can reach Ramat Aviv. But the very fact of taking part in negotiations with Israel will be a moderating force. In politics, too, it is possible that appetite comes with eating.

The Bush administration is in the midst of a race with time. For Bush and Rice, who have been floundering around in Iraq for five years, this is the last chance to chalk up at least one achievement by the end of the year. Here it is: Two states - not three - for two peoples, with a delegation representing the entire Palestinian people at the bargaining table.
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  1.   BLAME IT ALL TO HAMAS 10:03  |  indrajaya 11/03/08
  2.   BUSH FAILED ON ALL FRONTS... 10:06  |  TripleJump 11/03/08
  3.   Jesus Christ walking the streets of Jerusalem! 10:18  |  Astasheiks 11/03/08
  4.   Go Hamas go! No quislings and Crime Syndicates,no ! 10:33  |  lakshmi 11/03/08
  5.   take hamas into the boat, it`s worth a try 11:00  |  saul a. readner 11/03/08
  6.   Another suicidal advice by maniac loser Marcus,whose advices cos 11:13  |  Absolute Sweden 11/03/08
  7.   JUST TELL THE PALS TO BUZZ OFF. 12:47  |  petra 11/03/08
  8.   absolute sweden 13:05  |  saul a. readner 11/03/08
  9.   Yoel is doing Yoga for us 13:13  |  FOX 11/03/08
  10.   Hamas has always been ready to negotiate 13:19  |  Natallie Durson 11/03/08
  11.   "maybe it`s a trick" 14:06  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 11/03/08
  12.   No, Yoel, Israel Simply Does Not Want This 14:16  |  Yaakov Sullivan 11/03/08
  13.   taking part in negotiations with Israel will be a moderating forc 14:26  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 11/03/08
  14.   Pitiful saul the reader admiring pal education 14:27  |  Absolute Sweden 11/03/08
  15.   "a race with time" 14:35  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 11/03/08
  16.   natallie durson 14:58  |  saul a. readner 11/03/08
  17.   #8, Durson claims 15:01  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 11/03/08
  18.   # 15 - Kohn .. The same tired illogical response 15:09  |  Natallie Durson 11/03/08
  19.   Negotiate with Hamas? 15:12  |  Purple Canary 11/03/08
  20.   It`s not Hamas it`s Israel 15:36  |  Abu Firas Al Qudsi 11/03/08
  21.   Hamas charter calls for killing Jews. It is a cancer 15:42  |  David 11/03/08
  22.   to Natallie D. Hamas charter calls for killing Jews 15:46  |  David 11/03/08
  23.   Abu 15:47  |  Dan 11/03/08
  24.   your last chance - not Bush`s 16:05  |  whizbang 11/03/08
  25.   #18, Durson, speaking of the illogical 16:21  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 11/03/08
  26.   grow up yoel.... 16:24  |  ravi 11/03/08
  27.   yaakov sullivan 16:28  |  saul a. readner 11/03/08
  28.   purple canary 16:30  |  saul a. readner 11/03/08
  29.   More Marcusian nonsense from this ProPLO newspaper 16:31  |  Pro Feiglin 11/03/08
  30.   abu firas al qudsi 16:33  |  saul a. readner 11/03/08
  31.   Can This Guy Get More Pathetic ? 17:12  |  Tod Zuckerman 11/03/08
  32.   absolute sweden 18:43  |  saul a. readner 11/03/08
  33.   Natalie Durston 19:50  |  Michael 11/03/08
  34.   US caused all the strife, they shud sort it out 21:01  |  Chanalau, Tova 11/03/08
  35.   Markus your illusions are shared only by 3-5% of Jewish Israelis. 02:23  |  Misha 12/03/08
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