Subscribe to Print Edition | Thu., March 13, 2008 Adar2 7, 5768 | | Israel Time: 05:01 (EST+7) web haaretz.com   Back to Homepage Rosner's Domain Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Advertising Books Arts & Leisure Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File

IDF troops preparing for operation near Gaza border last week (AP) Last update - 12:12 10/03/2008 ANALYSIS: The lull in rockets is not due to an Israel-Hamas deal By Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel, Haaretz Correspondents Tags: gaza, sderot, rockets, israel The statistics are not lying: Since last Thursday, there has been a lull in the fighting in the Gaza Strip. It is quite certain that this will be a short break. But it is also hard to argue with the data: At its peak, on February 29, some 50 rockets were fired each day, mostly by Hamas militants. In the middle of last week, the rate dropped to 10-15 rockets per day, fired by more extremist groups - but the Qassams were provided to them mostly by Hamas. Since last Friday, one or two rockets have been fired each day. Was there a specific agreement between Israel and Hamas? It does not appear so, even though there are reports on such a deal in some media. It is more reasonable that this is a Hamas initiative, in line with Egyptian expectations. Hamas issued an order to the groups not to fire rockets, and it is being obeyed quite strictly by members of the armed wing of its own organization, and only partially by the other factions. The relative calm could be considered to be a confidence-building measure that would enable Egypt to step up its efforts to reach a longer-term agreement. It will also make it difficult for Israel to initiate a new series of attacks targetting Hamas in the Strip. In recent days, it seems that the Israel Defense Forces is indeed limiting to a certain extent its offensive operations in the Strip, also in part because of the quiet on the other side. Advertisement The lull is very fragile, primarily because of the complexities on the ground. Since there is no direct link between Hamas and the massacre of the yeshiva students at Mercaz Harav in Jerusalem, Israel has avoided retaliating in the Gaza Strip. But Israel will not spend any time trying to find out who is behind the next attack from the Gaza Strip, even if Hamas is not directly responsible for it. And the lull is not complete in any case. On Thursday morning, Islamic Jihad militants detonated a bomb that killed two IDF soldiers in a jeep near Kibbutz Ein Hashlosha. Another problem lies in the Egyptian plan. Egypt's intelligence chief, General Omar Suleiman, who was scheduled to visit Israel and the territories in order to push the plan forward, delayed his trip again, for the second week in a row. Hamas is demanding, as a prerequisite for a deal, the opening of the border crossings, especially the one at Rafah. Reaching agreement on this matter, one that will be acceptable to both Israel and Hamas, is a very difficult thing to do. During the past few months, an idea was proposed that would allow Palestinian Authority forces, who answer to Mahmoud Abbas, to represent the Palestinians at the crossings. But the degree of mistrust between Fatah and Hamas, especially after the murderous takeover by the Islamist movement in the Gaza Strip last June, is exceptionally strong. Where, for example, will these guards stay once their shift is over? Will they dare to spend the night in the Gaza Strip, secure in the immunity that Hamas will grant them? But at this time, Hamas is not willing to compromise. Its initial stance at the negotiations maintains that the Fatah officers would be able to run the administrative functions of the Palestinian side of the crossing, but an armed force of Hamas will also be present on-site. This is not a solution that is acceptable to Israel nor the Palestinian Authority, because this will grant the final say at the crossings to Hamas. A failed attempt to get a clear picture from Hamas spokesmen Sunday was nothing unusual. Aides to Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh tried to market the deal as done. Other members of Hamas, those who are not part of the government, denied this, and argued that for now there is no clear agreement with Egypt or Israel. IDF sources say that the person who really makes the decisions in Hamas has for some time not been Haniyeh, nor even Khaled Meshal, the group's politburo chief in Damascus. They say that Ahmed Jabari, the head of the military wing of the group, rules. Jabari is the one who led the breach of the border wall at the Philadelphi route in Rafah late in January, in spite of reservations from Meshal. Jabari's stance is hard and uncompromising. It is unlikely he will be willing to make any ideological concessions. Bookmark to del.icio.us   Bring the house down Dichter to police: Demolish home of J'lem yeshiva terrorist. Media frenzy Israel to boycott Al-Jazeera TV, claiming incitement to terror.   1.   A better future for the Arabs of Judea, Samaria and Gaza. 09:14  |  Jean Van Daem 10/03/08   2.   why is Jabari still alive? 09:45  |  don 10/03/08   3.   Hamas 12:13  |  Dan 10/03/08   4.   Israelis Pulling the stings... 12:53  |  Ali 10/03/08   5.   Ali 13:08  |  Dan 10/03/08   6.   Israelis pulling the strings 13:20  |  Robert 10/03/08   7.   Well, Dan ... 13:23  |  Murray 10/03/08   8.   Most likely that the attack in Jerusalem has sobered up the 13:26  |  lakshmi 10/03/08   9.   1.jean Van Daem,dream on! You are reading too much of the zionist 13:27  |  lakshmi 10/03/08   10.   Murray 13:31  |  Dan 10/03/08   11.   Hamas thoughts 13:32  |  American Christian 10/03/08   12.   you know what...american christian, dan 13:49  |  Omar 10/03/08   13.   #3.Dan. Wrong Man 14:04  |  Bill 10/03/08   14.   HAMAS: Sworn Enemy of Israel 14:10  |  Irv 10/03/08   15.   Bill and Omar 14:21  |  Dan 10/03/08   16.   Omar 14:22  |  Dan 10/03/08   17.   Dan 14:32  |  Omar 10/03/08   18.   Re-Omar 14:36  |  American Christian 10/03/08   19.   Beat up the other side!!! 14:46  |  Sex Pistol 10/03/08   20.   American Christian 15:13  |  Cool B 10/03/08   21.   15#Dan. In ireland we know what is lo tive under OCCUPATION. 15:31  |  Bill 10/03/08   22.   20 Cool B,good point,I think this guy is a zionist posing as 15:38  |  lakshmi 10/03/08   23.   Cool B, another village missing their.... 15:40  |  Joe 10/03/08   24.   Egyptian Partners? 15:41  |  Steve from Raleigh 10/03/08   25.   Ali #4 16:05  |  Rory 10/03/08   26.   Bill 16:11  |  Dan 10/03/08   27.   PS error 16:22  |  dan 10/03/08   28.   Steve 16:49  |  Dan 10/03/08   29.   #2 don 16:50  |  Boycott 10/03/08   30.   Joe 17:01  |  Cool B 10/03/08   31.   Nasrallah etc 17:02  |  Dan 10/03/08   32.   Peace 17:02  |  American Christian 10/03/08   33.   Coolb 17:09  |  Dan Rose 10/03/08   34.   #21 76 year old bill sits in a time machine 17:12  |  v hardman 10/03/08   35.   Such naivete 18:05  |  John 10/03/08   36.   Dan Rose 19:02  |  Cool B 10/03/08   37.   Coolb 19:15  |  Dan 10/03/08   38.   12. Omar 19:20  |  Caliben 10/03/08   39.   American Christian (32) could it be that all political leaders in 19:20  |  Karl 10/03/08   40.   John (35), you are right in your diagnosis of Hamas 20:00  |  Karl 10/03/08   41.   Dan Rose 20:23  |  Cool B 10/03/08   42.   Robert..#6...Rory# 25..YOU guys do not.. 20:55  |  Ali 10/03/08   43.   # 11 American Christian 22:22  |  US PAL 10/03/08   44.   Coolb 04:20  |  Dan 11/03/08   45.   to #32 American christian,a message for you 05:40  |  Zaki 11/03/08   46.   terrorists/3-dan 12:10  |  a.s 11/03/08   47.   As 13:13  |  Dan 11/03/08   48.   cool B`s conditions 11:18  |  Barry 12/03/08   49.   Solution to negotatiations with Hamas 13:00  |  Sabra 12/03/08   50.   47/DAN 13:50  |  A.S 12/03/08   51.   #19 Sex Pistol - you`re shooting blanks 22:17  |  * BEN JABO 12/03/08   52.   Leave out Hamas etc... 04:18  |  Paul 13/03/08

Today Online Barak: Fighting in Gaza, southern Israel may soon resume Responses: 193 Australian parliament lauds Israel as 'custodian of freedom' Responses: 154 Qureia to Livni: PA 'shocked' at plan to expand settlement Responses: 129 Israel to boycott Al-Jazeera TV, claiming incitement to terror Responses: 109 Pro-Palestinian graffiti found inside El Al plane in Italy Responses: 56 Haaretz TV: Israel-born child faces expulsion Responses: 28 Rosner's Domain General Fraser and the third whiner What General Fallon didn't get (WTR) Israeli leadership: A mixture of paranoia and luck Poll: Cease-fire with Hamas, a good idea? How Qassams changed the conflict (WTR) More Headlines 02:47 Lull in fighting ends as rockets slam into Israel 20:44 Defense Min.: Fighting in southern Israel, Gaza may soon resume 18:58 New York Governor Eliot Spitzer resigns amid sex scandal 02:16 Poll: Half of Jews oppose living in neighborhoods with Arabs 00:56 Wagner show in Nazi-era hall to raise funds for Ramallah venue 04:12 Rabbi: Terror attack was punishment for rebellion against Torah 16:59 Smuggler buried alive when tunnel collapses near Egypt-Gaza border 04:42 IBA exec tried for indecent acts on minor still runs kids' radio 04:36 Targeted assassination / Little room for mistakes 03:08 Unremarkable night salvaged by Israeli's rendition of Schubert 04:35 ANALYSIS: Admiral's break with Bush on Iran lands him on the outs 21:27 Schindler Jews to mark 65 years since Krakow ghetto liquidation Previous Editions Select Day 12 mar 11 mar 10 mar 09 mar 07 mar 06 mar 05 mar 04 mar 03 mar 02 mar 29 feb 28 feb

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