Subscribe to Print Edition | Tue., March 11, 2008 Adar2 5, 5768 | | Israel Time: 15:54 (EST+7) web haaretz.com   Back to Homepage Rosner's Domain Diplomacy Defense Jewish World Opinion National Print Edition Advertising Books Arts & Leisure Business Real Estate Easy Start Travel Week's End Anglo File

Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin (Kobi Gideon / BauBau) Last update - 23:04 09/03/2008 Shin Bet chief: Chances of fresh Intifada in 2008 are low By Barak Ravid Tags: IDF, Hamas, Hezbollah, Israel The head of the Shin Bet security service told ministers on Sunday that the chances for a renewed popular Palestinian uprisingin the near future. Citing the service's annual intelligence estimate, Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin said that such an outbreak would erupt only if Muslim holy places - such as the Dome of the Rock - were damaged, or if the Palestinian death toll were to rise dramatically Advertisement Meanwhile, the Military Intelligence and the Mossad share the view that Syria is prepared to sever its ties with extremist groups in the Middle East. Both estimate that Syria would be more likely to embark on such a scenario if Israel were to agreed to return the Golan Heights and if U.S. were to renew negotiations with Damascus. The intelligence estimates were presented three days after a Palestinian gunman infiltrated the Mercaz Harav Yeshiva in Jerusalem on Sunday night, killing eight students. PM: Israel will respond as needed to Jerusalem attack Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told the cabinet Sunday that Israel would respond the attack on the yeshiva, which he called "the flagship of religious Zionism. "I would like to tell the people of Israel that while there are threats, concerns and dangers, today's discussion does not mean that we lack responses," he said. "The State of Israel has responses for every threat and has the ability to respond to every danger; it also has the know-how, daring and strength to deal with whatever is liable to threaten the security of Israelis and of the State of Israel." Grim picture for 2008 Israeli intelligence chiefs were expected to paint an extremely pessimistic picture in their assessment for 2008 at the cabinet meeting Sunday morning. They were expected to emphasize the danger of a flare-up on the northern front with Syria and Hezbollah, progress in Iran's nuclear program, a possible takeover of the West Bank by Hamas, and the low odds of reaching a deal with the Palestinians. Military Intelligence, the Mossad, Shin Bet, Foreign Ministry and National Security Council were represented at the meeting. Last Thursday, Olmert heard assessments on the Middle East from historian Bernard Lewis. The 93-year-old Mideast expert, who is wrapping up a three-month stay in Israel, was invited to a meeting with Olmert by Cabinet Secretary Oved Yehezkel, a history teacher by profession. Besides Olmert, Lewis had meetings in recent weeks with Defense Minister Ehud Barak, opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu and MI chief Amos Yadlin. In contrast to what the ministers were to hear from the intelligence chiefs, Lewis opened his conversation with Olmert on a relatively optimistic note, saying that several Middle Eastern countries are in the process of going through the "Sadat syndrome." "Like the former Egyptian president, there are several states that recognize that the major threat is not Israel, but rather Iran and radical Islam," Lewis told Olmert. "I recognize this in Saudi Arabia, in Egypt and in the Gulf states." Syria still wants talks The cabinet was also expected to hear today from the intelligence agencies that Syria is continuing to convey messages on its interest in talks with Israel, even though it is not certain that it would agree to sever its ties to Iran and Hezbollah. For Lewis, negotiating with Syria would be a mistake. "There is no 'Sadat syndrome' in Syria," he told Olmert. "Assad is an extremist and you cannot talk to him. That regime must be replaced." On the Iranian nuclear program, the ministers will hear that in 2009, unless stopped, Iran might cross the technological threshold enabling it to assemble a bomb. But Lewis told Olmert that the nuclear issue must not be the sole focus regarding Iran. "Iran is not a 20th-century invention," Lewis said, "it is a country with a heritage of thousands of years, and the Iranian people believes in the need to be advanced and a global leader, so the sanctions on the nuclear issue unite it behind the regime." Lewis recommended "focusing on action against the oppression that the Iranian regime exercises and bringing about its replacement." One topic Lewis and the intelligence heads are likely to agree on is the impact the U.S. elections will have on the Middle East. President George W. Bush no longer has any influence, Lewis said, and the entire region is waiting to see who will succeed him. Related articles: Shin Bet: Possibility of fresh Intifada in 2008 is low Report: Hamas leader says hundreds of militants trained in Iran, Syria PM okays 750 new settlement homes, says in line with state policy Palestinians: Hamas, Hezbollah cooperated on Jerusalem terror attack ANALYSIS / J'lem attack doesn't signal start of third intifada For stricken yeshiva, trauma of terror attack likely to linger Report: Peres says Israel will not act alone to halt Iran nuke program Bookmark to del.icio.us   Bring down the house Knesset speaker calls for wrecking of yeshiva killer's family home. Frum and fabulous Beauty salons offer Haredi women a unique brand of modest glamour.   1.   Middle east Expert 05:56  |  pal 09/03/08   2.   All hope for Palestinians was thrown away 06:17  |  Mark Lincoln 09/03/08   3.   Lewis is right 06:49  |  Fortuna Benmayor 09/03/08   4.   Rome`s Burning 07:11  |  Rav Harley 09/03/08   5.   #1 - what don`t you agree with? 07:17  |  redmike 09/03/08   6.   So much for military intelligence 08:07  |  Boxwalla 09/03/08   7.   More Double Standards 08:18  |  Milo 09/03/08   8.   for the record 08:27  |  hana 09/03/08   9.   Lewis is ignorant. 08:29  |  Atoo 09/03/08   10.   Isolate Iran though peace with all non-persians 08:31  |  Pablo B 09/03/08   11.   So are we to sit around waitng 09:01  |  Yonatan 09/03/08   12.   #9 - sorry but you are talking through your hat! 09:31  |  redmike 09/03/08   13.   Olmert Needs to be forced Out Now 09:40  |  Dish It Out 09/03/08   14.   BOXWALLA.Targetting civillians may be lost on you. 10:06  |  PETER SM 09/03/08   15.   Bernard Lewis is mostly right 10:55  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 09/03/08   16.   You cant cover the sky with crows 11:02  |  buckfush 09/03/08   17.   Dictators, puppets and feudal kingdoms 11:08  |  Clickfool 09/03/08   18.   #3, Fortuna Benmayor 11:12  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 09/03/08   19.   What a very cheering sentence! 11:17  |  Clickfool 09/03/08   20.   Boxwalla - look to the future 11:42  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 09/03/08   21.   The Israeli people are facing "payback" big time....... 11:46  |  Swiss (Dino) 09/03/08   22.   Intelligence Chiefs 11:51  |  Patrick Warner 09/03/08   23.   peace 12:04  |  english jew 09/03/08   24.   #20, Margie in TA 12:46  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 09/03/08   25.   #21 I am afraid you are right 13:04  |  JIm 09/03/08   26.   Engage Iran 13:12  |  Si 09/03/08   27.   A weak knee prediction. By a weak Gov. 13:21  |  Stephen. 09/03/08   28.   # 18 Cipora Julianna Kohn 13:25  |  christa 09/03/08   29.   # 20 Margie in Tel Aviv 13:29  |  christa 09/03/08   30.   SWISS Euros staring down the barrel of " Mohammed" riots 13:30  |  PETER SM 09/03/08   31.   SADAT SYNDROME? LoL 14:04  |  indrajaya 09/03/08   32.   A self-made disaster waiting to happen 14:25  |  Tosefta 09/03/08   33.   Patrick Warner # 22 Patriot Wouldn`t Work 14:32  |  Jeff Northridge 09/03/08   34.   #3 14:54  |  Buzaglow 09/03/08   35.   A self-made disaster waiting to happen 15:15  |  Tosefta 09/03/08   36.   Things are going to get plenty bad,unless israel decides to 15:20  |  lakshmi 09/03/08   37.   Entire conflict explained in less than 20 lines 15:32  |  G. Marcus 09/03/08   38.   ONLY SOLUTION: GAZA UNDER EGYPT; PARTS OF W.BANK LINKED TO JORDAN 15:42  |  G. Marcus 09/03/08   39.   The value of Bernard Lewis` advice 15:46  |  Tosefta 09/03/08   40.   #1 pal of LA......actually, the extremism in Islam 15:54  |  Lynn 09/03/08   41.   #21 dino sings from the cuckoo clock again 15:55  |  v hardman 09/03/08   42.   A self-made disaster waiting to happen 16:00  |  Tosefta 09/03/08   43.   # Margie in TA ex SA 16:01  |  Labhras 09/03/08   44.   Cipora : אנא הארצ 16:06  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 09/03/08   45.   Tosefta 16:18  |  Lewis student 09/03/08   46.   he wants to wipe syria, iran off the map 16:21  |  sam i am 09/03/08   47.   Margie in TA 16:36  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 09/03/08   48.   Replace Assad With What? 16:43  |  dyinglikeflies 09/03/08   49.   Lewis student #32 16:44  |  Tosefta 09/03/08   50.   # 32 Jeff 17:19  |  Patrick Warner 09/03/08   51.   A JEW NAMED BERNARD LEWIS 17:21  |  indrajaya 09/03/08   52.   Cipora Julianna Kohn A Non-Sequitur 17:52  |  Jeff Northridge 09/03/08   53.   get your text right 18:41  |  Gerry 09/03/08   54.   MARK LINCOLN 18:44  |  Mike 09/03/08   55.   Balance the Pros and Cons Lincoln 19:04  |  George W. Bush 09/03/08   56.   Balance the Pros and Cons Lincoln Part2 19:08  |  George W. Bush 09/03/08   57.   #1 pal - I didn`t know that La USA was in the ME 19:25  |  * BEN JABO 09/03/08   58.   #35 lakshmi - Israel has been law Abiding 19:27  |  * BEN JABO 09/03/08   59.   lewis is wrong 19:27  |  the syrian 09/03/08   60.   Syria of Assad is and will remain the conduit for terrorism 19:32  |  George 09/03/08   61.   What about the old intifada? 19:34  |  B 09/03/08   62.   TO#35 Redmike: Mr. Lewis is no scholar on Arabs 19:35  |  pal 09/03/08   63.   No need for non-sequiturs (Jeff Northridge #52) 20:05  |  Tosefta 09/03/08   64.   # 30 PETER SM 20:11  |  Swiss (Dino) 09/03/08   65.   #59 and your advisors who publish blood libel books? 20:22  |  McQueen 09/03/08   66.   Expert/Pal 20:22  |  Paul 09/03/08   67.   This article 20:27  |  Paul 09/03/08   68.   Tell Sderot residents will disgree with Shin Bet Chief 20:40  |  Joe 09/03/08   69.   #21 Payback..... 21:20  |  M 09/03/08   70.   not "fresh" 21:27  |  samq 09/03/08   71.   crystal ball reading 22:00  |  Shmuelshacho0r 09/03/08   72.   Like screwing in a new light bulb? 22:23  |  Morris Valentine 09/03/08   73.   Tosefta # 63 Irrelevant? 22:40  |  Jeff Northridge 09/03/08   74.   * BEN JABO the tough zionist in new mexico 22:44  |  get real coward 09/03/08   75.   PETER SM! tough zionist hiding in austrailia 22:47  |  you wont do jack 09/03/08   76.   Shmuelshacho0r the expert zionist in Rio 22:48  |  you clown 09/03/08   77.   Joe # 68 Yeah, But Take A Look At The Photo 23:08  |  Jeff Northridge 09/03/08   78.   The military wing of PA President Mahoud Abbas` 23:10  |  Rozz 09/03/08   79.   George dumbya Bush to Mark Lincoln 23:16  |  Labhras 09/03/08   80.   Tosefta to Jeff 23:59  |  Mike M 09/03/08   81.   I think he might be wrong 00:05  |  Mark Lincoln 10/03/08   82.   Jeff Northridge re Naletlic and Martinovic case 00:17  |  MIke M 10/03/08   83.   Judaism 00:25  |  Paul 10/03/08   84.   Sderot/Tel Aviv 00:29  |  Paul 10/03/08   85.   # 20 Mergie 02:11  |  Bobby 10/03/08   86.   How does that old hag suggest to replace Syrian regime 02:17  |  Wise Syrian 10/03/08   87.   #52, Jeff Northridge 02:38  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 10/03/08   88.   #72 2ND TRY get real 03:56  |  * BEN JABO 10/03/08   89.   #74 & #73 Both posts from the same twerp 03:58  |  * BEN JABO 10/03/08   90.   The Chief of Shin Bet seems motivated by politics 04:18  |  Mark Lincoln 10/03/08   91.   People with nothing to lose will behave as if it 04:23  |  Mark Lincoln 10/03/08   92.   Define Intifada 06:42  |  Efox 10/03/08   93.   To Matk Linc oln # 2 - No Hope for Palestinians..... 08:42  |  Dagma 10/03/08   94.   To Dish it Out # 13 - Fullly Agree "Olmert has go be removed 08:50  |  Absentee 10/03/08   95.   On arguing (Mike M #80) 18:06  |  Tosefta 10/03/08   96.   #95, Tosefta 22:20  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 10/03/08   97.   #82 Mike M has his doubts... 08:19  |  Johnboy 11/03/08   98.   #73 The bits being quoted appear irrelevent to me, Jeff. 09:43  |  Johnboy 11/03/08

Today Online Editorial: Sign peace deal quickly with PA Responses: 52 Yoel Marcus: Bush's last chance for a two-state solution Responses: 21 Shahar Ilan: We've learned nothing from Rabin murder Responses: 19 Israel cements grip on Jewish Quarter in Jerusalem's Old City Responses: 20 Britain bans Likud's Moshe Feiglin from entering country Responses: 163 Police holding body of yeshiva terrorist in dispute over funeral Responses: 25 Rosner's Domain Israeli leadership: A mixture of paranoia and luck Study: Boston's intermarried 'as observant' as Reform Jews Whose Jerusalem Is It, anyway? Poll: Should Abbas and Olmert continue their talks? An Israeli and a crocodile (WTR) More Headlines 15:43 Rocket on Ashkelon ends four day lull in violence 14:09 PA official: W. Bank construction threatens peace process 09:57 Infrastructures Min. Ben Eliezer warns of next political murder 12:01 N.Y. Gov. Spitzer in sex scandal; pimp said to hold Israel passport 11:58 MKs approve Merkel's request to address Knesset in German 14:26 Histadrut, 'Coffee Bean' sign breakthrough labor agreement 15:04 Jewish club reopens in Vienna 70 years after Nazis seized it 15:27 ANALYSIS/ Diplomatic bind not of our own making - for a change 07:18 Abbas: Israel has agreed to cease-fire with Hamas 11:52 Police arrest 2 Jisr al-Zarqa teens for allegedly throwing rocks on road 09:40 Brother shoots sister in suspected 'honor killing' attempt Previous Editions Select Day 10 mar 09 mar 07 mar 06 mar 05 mar 04 mar 03 mar 02 mar 29 feb 28 feb 27 feb 26 feb

Special Offers Advertisement FAREWELL ISRAEL New Film The Coming War for Islamic Revival - View Movie Trailer READY FOR PURIM? BUT - Who Will Guard The Hamentasch? Free the Palestinians from: Corrupt Kleptocracy, Tyrannical Theocracy, Abysmal Anarchy Long-term Israel programs MASA is your gateway. More programs. More grants. NEW! Dan Boutique Jerusalem Hotel Hip Dan Hotel in Jerusalem. Attractive Introductory Rates 7589 rockets fired so far HELP US TO HELP THEM FREE JEWISH HISTORY COURSE Berel Wein's best selling lectures. 5000 Years in Five hours /CD/MP3 Marina Royale Herzelia Pituach Your Luxurious Suite While Staying in Israel Fattal Hotel Chain Perfectly located hotels on best resorts of Israel. ISRAEL BONDS Build Israel Israel bonds - a multi-purpose way to celebrate Israel's 60th Eldan Rent a Car Israel's leading car rental company offers you a 20% discount on all online reservations Junkyard Junk a car - get free towing nationwide and a tax-deductible receipt

Home | TV | Print Edition | Diplomacy | Opinion | Arts & Leisure | Sports | Jewish World | Underground | Site rules |

Haaretz.com, the online edition of Haaretz Newspaper in Israel, offers real-time breaking news, opinions and analysis from Israel and the Middle East. Haaretz.com provides extensive and in-depth coverage of Israel, the Jewish World and the Middle East, including defense, diplomacy, the Arab-Israeli conflict, the peace process, Israeli politics, Jerusalem affairs, international relations, Iran, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the Israeli business world and Jewish life in Israel and the Diaspora.

© Copyright  Haaretz. All rights reserved