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Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin (Kobi Gideon / BauBau)
Last update - 23:04 09/03/2008
Shin Bet chief: Chances of fresh Intifada in 2008 are low
By Barak Ravid
Tags: IDF, Hamas, Hezbollah, Israel

The head of the Shin Bet security service told ministers on Sunday that the chances for a renewed popular Palestinian uprisingin the near future.

Citing the service's annual intelligence estimate, Shin Bet chief Yuval Diskin said that such an outbreak would erupt only if Muslim holy places - such as the Dome of the Rock - were damaged, or if the Palestinian death toll were to rise dramatically
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Meanwhile, the Military Intelligence and the Mossad share the view that Syria is prepared to sever its ties with extremist groups in the Middle East.

Both estimate that Syria would be more likely to embark on such a scenario if Israel were to agreed to return the Golan Heights and if U.S. were to renew negotiations with Damascus.

The intelligence estimates were presented three days after a Palestinian gunman infiltrated the Mercaz Harav Yeshiva in Jerusalem on Sunday night, killing eight students.

PM: Israel will respond as needed to Jerusalem attack

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told the cabinet Sunday that Israel would respond the attack on the yeshiva, which he called "the flagship of religious Zionism.

"I would like to tell the people of Israel that while there are threats, concerns and dangers, today's discussion does not mean that we lack responses," he said.

"The State of Israel has responses for every threat and has the ability to respond to every danger; it also has the know-how, daring and strength to deal with whatever is liable to threaten the security of Israelis and of the State of Israel."

Grim picture for 2008

Israeli intelligence chiefs were expected to paint an extremely pessimistic picture in their assessment for 2008 at the cabinet meeting Sunday morning.

They were expected to emphasize the danger of a flare-up on the northern front with Syria and Hezbollah, progress in Iran's nuclear program, a possible takeover of the West Bank by Hamas, and the low odds of reaching a deal with the Palestinians.

Military Intelligence, the Mossad, Shin Bet, Foreign Ministry and National Security Council were represented at the meeting.

Last Thursday, Olmert heard assessments on the Middle East from historian Bernard Lewis. The 93-year-old Mideast expert, who is wrapping up a three-month stay in Israel, was invited to a meeting with Olmert by Cabinet Secretary Oved Yehezkel, a history teacher by profession.

Besides Olmert, Lewis had meetings in recent weeks with Defense Minister Ehud Barak, opposition leader Benjamin Netanyahu and MI chief Amos Yadlin.

In contrast to what the ministers were to hear from the intelligence chiefs, Lewis opened his conversation with Olmert on a relatively optimistic note, saying that several Middle Eastern countries are in the process of going through the "Sadat syndrome."

"Like the former Egyptian president, there are several states that recognize that the major threat is not Israel, but rather Iran and radical Islam," Lewis told Olmert. "I recognize this in Saudi Arabia, in Egypt and in the Gulf states."

Syria still wants talks

The cabinet was also expected to hear today from the intelligence agencies that Syria is continuing to convey messages on its interest in talks with Israel, even though it is not certain that it would agree to sever its ties to Iran and Hezbollah.

For Lewis, negotiating with Syria would be a mistake. "There is no 'Sadat syndrome' in Syria," he told Olmert. "Assad is an extremist and you cannot talk to him. That regime must be replaced."

On the Iranian nuclear program, the ministers will hear that in 2009, unless stopped, Iran might cross the technological threshold enabling it to assemble a bomb. But Lewis told Olmert that the nuclear issue must not be the sole focus regarding Iran.

"Iran is not a 20th-century invention," Lewis said, "it is a country with a heritage of thousands of years, and the Iranian people believes in the need to be advanced and a global leader, so the sanctions on the nuclear issue unite it behind the regime." Lewis recommended "focusing on action against the oppression that the Iranian regime exercises and bringing about its replacement."

One topic Lewis and the intelligence heads are likely to agree on is the impact the U.S. elections will have on the Middle East. President George W. Bush no longer has any influence, Lewis said, and the entire region is waiting to see who will succeed him.

Related articles:
  • Shin Bet: Possibility of fresh Intifada in 2008 is low
  • Report: Hamas leader says hundreds of militants trained in Iran, Syria
  • PM okays 750 new settlement homes, says in line with state policy
  • Palestinians: Hamas, Hezbollah cooperated on Jerusalem terror attack
  • ANALYSIS / J'lem attack doesn't signal start of third intifada
  • For stricken yeshiva, trauma of terror attack likely to linger
  • Report: Peres says Israel will not act alone to halt Iran nuke program
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      1.   Middle east Expert 05:56  |  pal 09/03/08
      2.   All hope for Palestinians was thrown away 06:17  |  Mark Lincoln 09/03/08
      3.   Lewis is right 06:49  |  Fortuna Benmayor 09/03/08
      4.   Rome`s Burning 07:11  |  Rav Harley 09/03/08
      5.   #1 - what don`t you agree with? 07:17  |  redmike 09/03/08
      6.   So much for military intelligence 08:07  |  Boxwalla 09/03/08
      7.   More Double Standards 08:18  |  Milo 09/03/08
      8.   for the record 08:27  |  hana 09/03/08
      9.   Lewis is ignorant. 08:29  |  Atoo 09/03/08
      10.   Isolate Iran though peace with all non-persians 08:31  |  Pablo B 09/03/08
      11.   So are we to sit around waitng 09:01  |  Yonatan 09/03/08
      12.   #9 - sorry but you are talking through your hat! 09:31  |  redmike 09/03/08
      13.   Olmert Needs to be forced Out Now 09:40  |  Dish It Out 09/03/08
      14.   BOXWALLA.Targetting civillians may be lost on you. 10:06  |  PETER SM 09/03/08
      15.   Bernard Lewis is mostly right 10:55  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 09/03/08
      16.   You cant cover the sky with crows 11:02  |  buckfush 09/03/08
      17.   Dictators, puppets and feudal kingdoms 11:08  |  Clickfool 09/03/08
      18.   #3, Fortuna Benmayor 11:12  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 09/03/08
      19.   What a very cheering sentence! 11:17  |  Clickfool 09/03/08
      20.   Boxwalla - look to the future 11:42  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 09/03/08
      21.   The Israeli people are facing "payback" big time....... 11:46  |  Swiss (Dino) 09/03/08
      22.   Intelligence Chiefs 11:51  |  Patrick Warner 09/03/08
      23.   peace 12:04  |  english jew 09/03/08
      24.   #20, Margie in TA 12:46  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 09/03/08
      25.   #21 I am afraid you are right 13:04  |  JIm 09/03/08
      26.   Engage Iran 13:12  |  Si 09/03/08
      27.   A weak knee prediction. By a weak Gov. 13:21  |  Stephen. 09/03/08
      28.   # 18 Cipora Julianna Kohn 13:25  |  christa 09/03/08
      29.   # 20 Margie in Tel Aviv 13:29  |  christa 09/03/08
      30.   SWISS Euros staring down the barrel of " Mohammed" riots 13:30  |  PETER SM 09/03/08
      31.   SADAT SYNDROME? LoL 14:04  |  indrajaya 09/03/08
      32.   A self-made disaster waiting to happen 14:25  |  Tosefta 09/03/08
      33.   Patrick Warner # 22 Patriot Wouldn`t Work 14:32  |  Jeff Northridge 09/03/08
      34.   #3 14:54  |  Buzaglow 09/03/08
      35.   A self-made disaster waiting to happen 15:15  |  Tosefta 09/03/08
      36.   Things are going to get plenty bad,unless israel decides to 15:20  |  lakshmi 09/03/08
      37.   Entire conflict explained in less than 20 lines 15:32  |  G. Marcus 09/03/08
      38.   ONLY SOLUTION: GAZA UNDER EGYPT; PARTS OF W.BANK LINKED TO JORDAN 15:42  |  G. Marcus 09/03/08
      39.   The value of Bernard Lewis` advice 15:46  |  Tosefta 09/03/08
      40.   #1 pal of LA......actually, the extremism in Islam 15:54  |  Lynn 09/03/08
      41.   #21 dino sings from the cuckoo clock again 15:55  |  v hardman 09/03/08
      42.   A self-made disaster waiting to happen 16:00  |  Tosefta 09/03/08
      43.   # Margie in TA ex SA 16:01  |  Labhras 09/03/08
      44.   Cipora : אנא הארצ 16:06  |  Margie in Tel Aviv 09/03/08
      45.   Tosefta 16:18  |  Lewis student 09/03/08
      46.   he wants to wipe syria, iran off the map 16:21  |  sam i am 09/03/08
      47.   Margie in TA 16:36  |  Cipora Julianna Kohn 09/03/08
      48.   Replace Assad With What? 16:43  |  dyinglikeflies 09/03/08
      49.   Lewis student #32 16:44  |  Tosefta 09/03/08
      50.   # 32 Jeff 17:19  |  Patrick Warner 09/03/08
      51.   A JEW NAMED BERNARD LEWIS 17:21  |  indrajaya 09/03/08
      52.   Cipora Julianna Kohn A Non-Sequitur 17:52  |  Jeff Northridge 09/03/08
      53.   get your text right 18:41  |  Gerry 09/03/08
      54.   MARK LINCOLN 18:44  |  Mike 09/03/08
      55.   Balance the Pros and Cons Lincoln 19:04  |  George W. Bush 09/03/08
      56.   Balance the Pros and Cons Lincoln Part2 19:08  |  George W. Bush 09/03/08
      57.   #1 pal - I didn`t know that La USA was in the ME 19:25  |  * BEN JABO 09/03/08
      58.   #35 lakshmi - Israel has been law Abiding 19:27  |  * BEN JABO 09/03/08
      59.   lewis is wrong 19:27  |  the syrian 09/03/08
      60.   Syria of Assad is and will remain the conduit for terrorism 19:32  |  George 09/03/08
      61.   What about the old intifada? 19:34  |  B 09/03/08
      62.   TO#35 Redmike: Mr. Lewis is no scholar on Arabs 19:35  |  pal 09/03/08
      63.   No need for non-sequiturs (Jeff Northridge #52) 20:05  |  Tosefta 09/03/08
      64.   # 30 PETER SM 20:11  |  Swiss (Dino) 09/03/08
      65.   #59 and your advisors who publish blood libel books? 20:22  |  McQueen 09/03/08
      66.   Expert/Pal 20:22  |  Paul 09/03/08
      67.   This article 20:27  |  Paul 09/03/08
      68.   Tell Sderot residents will disgree with Shin Bet Chief 20:40  |  Joe 09/03/08
      69.   #21 Payback..... 21:20  |  M 09/03/08