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Last update - 02:59 09/03/2008 ANALYSIS / J'lem attack doesn't signal start of third intifada By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondents Tags: West Bank, IDF, Hamas  One of the central questions that has come up in the wake of the murder of eight students at the Mercaz Harav Yeshiva is: Is this the beginning of the third intifada? For now, the tentative answer is in the negative (and not just because the second intifada has yet to be pronounced dead). Why not? First of all, because despite the rise in acts of "popular" violence in the West Bank (demonstrations, the throwing of rocks and Molotov cocktails), it's doubtful whether the Palestinian public there, exhausted by seven and a half years of friction, is prepared to enlist in a renewed conflict. Moreover, the Israel Defense Forces and the Shin Bet security service are far better deployed in the West Bank than before. Clashes on the border of the Gaza Strip might spur more terror attacks in the West Bank and within Israel, but there is no comparison between the situation today and the height of the second intifada, during the years 2001 to 2002, when no separation fence existed and the IDF had no permission to arrest wanted militants in West Bank towns. A note of reservation is in order: An escalation in Gaza, to the point of l Advertisement aunching a military operation to conquer parts of the Strip, would impact the West Bank, just as the Givati Brigade operation in Jabalya a week ago ignited a wave of protests in Ramallah and Hebron (the sister of the gunman who attacked Mercaz Harav also said he had been influenced by the images from Gaza). Another potential complicating factor: The horrific images from Thursday's attack - bloodied prayer shawls, bullet-riddled sacred books  sent profound shockwaves through a large population of religious Zionists. There may be some fringe elements who might try to translate that rage into revenge attacks, as has happened in the past. Five of the young men and boys who were murdered came from settlements. An analysis conducted by the Shin Bet indicates that previous waves of Jewish terror were the product of a dual process: a weakening of Israelis' personal sense of security, especially in the territories, alongside a fear of settlements being evacuated. This time the first component is dominantly felt (this is the third attack since last November in which settlers have been killed). Jewish revenge might ignite a wave of attacks and counter-attacks that will make it very difficult for the security forces to operate. This week Egypt is expected to try to renew its push for a lull in the fighting in Gaza. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas delivered an emotional speech yesterday on the need to make real progress in the negotiations. Israel tends to belittle Abbas' security forces, but perhaps now is the time for Israel to make an effort to turn the PA into a security partner, not just a diplomatic one. Limited as their ability may be, the PA security forces know the area well and share with Israel an interest in preventing the rise of new Hamas networks in the West Bank. On the Israeli side, the military will be placed on high alert this week, in view of information about 10 terror attacks from the Palestinian side. But of greater concern at the moment is the partial intelligence about the intention of Iran, Syria and Hezbollah to carry out an attack to avenge the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh in Damascus. Related articles: ANALYSIS: Gazans see attack on yeshiva as unusual achievement Hamas says yeshiva attack 'normal response' to IDF Gaza op To the Westerner who 'understands' the terrorist Yeshiva head: J'lem shooting is continuation of 1929 massacre Bookmark to del.icio.us   'No good Jewish men' Author David Seidman delves into the dark side of dating, and confesses: 'I am a bad Jew.' Remembrance trail Holocaust memorial steam-drawn train sparks bitter row in Berlin.   1.   Third Intifada? 03:34  |  Jon 09/03/08   2.   3rd Intifada 03:35  |  Jon 09/03/08   3.   Certainly the quisling-collaborator`s security forces will 05:29  |  lakshmi 09/03/08   4.   Analysis - it bodes evil 06:00  |  Mark Lincoln 09/03/08   5.   Intifada is Palestinian. This terrorism is Iranian. 06:02  |  Fortuna Benmayor 09/03/08   6.   Mark Lincoln`s analysis 06:29  |  fiona 09/03/08   7.   Lakshmi 07:15  |  Will 09/03/08   8.   Will 09:13  |  Hasan 09/03/08   9.   wishfull thinking 09:25  |  rm 09/03/08   10.   M.LINCOLN.Dishonestly quoting Hamas Charter as Israeli policy 09:57  |  PETER SM 09/03/08   11.   It depends 11:48  |  Clickfool 09/03/08   12.   The Murder Of Dual Existence 15:21  |  Yakov 09/03/08   13.   Possibilities 00:40  |  Paul 10/03/08   14.   Mark Lincoln 00:41  |  Paul 10/03/08   15.   MOSHIACH IS RIGHT! TO AVOID JEWISH VICTIMS RETAKE GAZA, W.BANK))) 07:55  |  VOICE of MOSHIACH))) 13/04/08

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